It\u2019s December, so that means football weather is upon us.<\/p>\n
A quick disclaimer to fellow San Diegans: weather is the thing that happens usually while we sleep or like a half dozen other times throughout the year. May Gray, June Gloom and Fogust don\u2019t really qualify.<\/p>\n
In other, more unfortunate places people live, where they actually experience winter, there\u2019s freezing temperatures, snow and strong winds. Like in Green Bay, Buffalo and Cleveland this week.<\/p>\n
Even in places like Florida, where winter is generally milder, December can bring cold fronts with plenty of rain and wind. Like Tampa Bay or Jacksonville, where there\u2019s a possibility for thunderstorms and heavier rain on Sunday.<\/p>\n
Fantasy football enthusiasts are constantly asking me this time of year if they should bench their quarterbacks or receivers based on the forecast?\u00a0My reply is only the most extreme weather truly impacts a player\u2019s performance: a\u00a0blizzard, a monsoon or 40-50 mile per hour wind gusts.<\/p>\n
The truth is rain or snow usually impacts a defense significantly more because an offense knows where it\u2019s going.<\/p>\n
Instead of staying glued to the Weather Channel, or sliding in my DMs, take inspiration from \u201cAll the President\u2019s Men\u201d and follow the money.<\/p>\n
If a game total starts to fall as the week progresses, that means sharps are placing bets on the weather, and you should act accordingly.<\/p>\n
Otherwise, unlock your inner San Diegan, and don\u2019t worry about the weather.<\/p>\n
The Preamble<\/p>\n
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I\u2019m here weekly to assist.<\/p>\n
On DraftKings, it\u2019s important to remember you\u2019re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.<\/p>\n
Here is my optimal lineup for today\u2019s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.<\/p>\n
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.<\/p>\n
The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I\u2019m in the red $125 with an average score of 134.33 points through 13 weeks.<\/p>\n
Year-To-Date Results<\/p>\n
Week 1: 95.52<\/p>\n
Week 2: 124.90<\/p>\n
Week 3: 181.44<\/p>\n
Week 4: 142.88<\/p>\n
Week 5: 162.24<\/p>\n
Week 6: 117.24<\/p>\n
Week 7: 116.46<\/p>\n
Week 8: 158.26<\/p>\n
Week 9: 146.94<\/p>\n
Week 10: 114.44<\/p>\n
Week 11: 118.68<\/p>\n
Week 12: 147.58<\/p>\n
Week 13: 119.72<\/p>\n
Week 14 lineup<\/p>\n
QB: Jayden Daniels, Commanders ($6,000)<\/strong><\/p>\n If Washington is willing to play its franchise quarterback at Minnesota in the midst of a lost season after he dislocated his left elbow in Week 9, then so am I. The Vikings play two high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). According to Fantasy Pros, Daniels ranks first in passer rating, and seventh in yards per attempt against two high. Against Brian Flores\u2019 blitz-heavy defense, Daniels also likely approaches his ceiling in rushing yards, which is why I\u2019m fine playing him \u00e0 la carte.<\/p>\n RB: James Cook III, Bills ($7,800)<\/strong><\/p>\n Cook has averaged 24.5 DraftKings points in wins this season, and Buffalo is home favorite (-6) in the highest game total (52\u00bd) of the week.<\/p>\n RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($7,000)<\/strong><\/p>\n Irving wasn\u2019t eased back in last week after being out since Week 4 with foot and shoulder injuries. He finished with 19 touches, including all three of Tampa Bay\u2019s red zone rushing attempts. The Bucs are big home favorites (-8\u00bd), so I anticipate the volume staying steady. According to Fantasy Pros, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards before contact per attempt since Week 9.<\/p>\n WR: Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,200)<\/strong><\/p>\n I almost built this lineup around a Joe Burrow double-stack with Higgins and Ja\u2019Marr Chase. Cincinnati will likely be pursuing points against Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday, but Daniels\u2019 upside as a runner won me over. Most of the field will include Chase and his sky-high ceiling as the bring-back in their Allen or Cook builds, but I\u2019m seeking leverage with Higgins, who should fly under the radar in a difficult matchup, coming off a concussion. He\u2019s always an elite GPP play, and is projected for single digit ownership in the highest game total of the week.<\/p>\n WR: Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars ($5,700)<\/strong><\/p>\n Meyers has essentially operated as the \u201cChris Godwin\u201d in Liam Coen\u2019s scheme since he was traded to Jacksonville. The Colts have utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (62.3%) since Week 10. According to Fantasy Pros, Meyers has had a 23.1% target share, and a 29.6% first-read share against single high since he\u2019s been with the Jaguars.<\/p>\n WR: Michael Wilson, Cardinals ($5,600)<\/strong><\/p>\n There\u2019s a good argument to be made that every lineup should include at least one of Wilson, Trey McBride or the Rams\u2019 defense this week with Arizona as a big home underdog (+9\u00bd), and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Greg Dortch both out. The only way Wilson or McBride (who is priced up to $8,000 this week) doesn\u2019t produce something viable is if the offense fails completely, and if the offense lays an egg, you\u2019re going to want the Rams\u2019 D.<\/p>\n TE: Tyler Warren, Colts ($5,000)<\/strong><\/p>\n This is Warren\u2019s lowest price tag since Week 6, and the Jaguars are allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.<\/p>\n FLEX: Dawson Knox, Bills ($2,800)<\/strong><\/p>\n It doesn\u2019t look like Dalton Kincaid (hamstring\/knee) will return this week so that leaves Knox to be the latest tight end to take advantage of the Bengals\u2019 baby linebackers. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs AND tight ends this season. A Cook-Knox skinny stack could be the skeleton key to unlock this slate.<\/p>\n DST: Cleveland Browns ($3,700)<\/strong><\/p>\n I\u2019m either starting the Browns\u2019 or the Broncos\u2019 defense in all my lineups this week. They\u2019re the top two teams in producing sacks this season and will face the two teams (Titans and Raiders) who take the most sacks in the NFL. If there were an option to just take Myles Garrett, I\u2019d consider it. Garrett has 15 sacks and three forced fumbles in his last six games.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s December, so that means football weather is upon us. 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