{"id":430047,"date":"2025-12-07T02:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T02:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/430047\/"},"modified":"2025-12-07T02:14:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T02:14:00","slug":"college-football-bowl-projections-rip-bahamas-bowl-and-cfp-stakes-for-alabama-miami","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/430047\/","title":{"rendered":"College football bowl projections: RIP Bahamas Bowl and CFP stakes for Alabama, Miami"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of the 2025 SEC Championship<\/a> between Alabama and Georgia<\/a> and the 2025 Big Ten Championship<\/a> between Indiana and Ohio State.<\/a><\/p>\n

RIP Bahamas Bowl. Welcome to the show, Xbox Bowl.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, ESPN Events announced its long-awaited replacement for the always-interesting-but-never-full Bahamas Bowl. The Xbox Bowl debuts Dec. 18 at The Star in Frisco, Texas. In addition, ESPN Events announced the participants will be Arkansas State (6-6) and Missouri State (7-5). The Bears are in their first season transitioning from the Football Championship Subdivision and would be ineligible for the postseason if there were enough six-win teams to fill the schedule. Delaware (6-6) is in the same position.<\/p>\n

ESPN also announced the Hawaii Bowl will pit the hometown Rainbow Warriors (8-4) against California (7-5). The Hawaii Bowl was scheduled to match a Mountain West Conference team (Hawaii when eligible) against an American Athletic Conference squad. But ESPN has flexibility to shift matchups, and geography led to Cal taking the American\u2019s spot. On Friday, the Cure Bowl matchup was also locked in: Old Dominion vs. South Florida.<\/p>\n

On the projections side, the College Football Playoff\u2019s final Tuesday rankings of the season<\/a> provided two key takeaways. One, after Alabama moved up from No. 10 to No. 9, it would take a significant loss in Saturday\u2019s SEC Championship Game to boot the Crimson Tide out of the field. Otherwise, conference championship games would be doomed after this year. Two, it moves No. 12 Miami within striking distance of a head-to-head discussion with No. 10 Notre Dame. The committee ranked BYU between them on Tuesday, but if the Cougars lose to Texas Tech<\/a> on Saturday in the Big 12 championship, then the Hurricanes\u2019 season-opening win over the Irish could flip the order. That\u2019s why Miami now is projected for the CFP and Notre Dame is not.<\/p>\n

The ACC\u2019s title game quandary has created some challenges for bowl organizers. Several of the bowls have two sets of lineups: one for a win by No. 17 Virginia and another in case unranked Duke pulls out the upset. If Duke wins, then No. 25 James Madison could wind up as the CFP\u2019s fifth conference champion and leave the ACC out of the 12-team field \u2014 unless Miami qualifies as an at-large squad.<\/p>\n

A few items to watch:<\/p>\n

If Notre Dame falls out of the CFP, then it lands in the ACC\u2019s bowl lineup, which consists of three tiers. The first comprises the Pop-Tarts, the Gator and the Holiday bowl. The Pop-Tarts Bowl is considered first among equals and can pull rank. If Notre Dame is the prize, I expect it will. If Miami ends up in this spot, however, the Pop-Tarts Bowl cannot select the Hurricanes two years in a row.<\/p>\n

The SEC won\u2019t fill out its bowl allotment, with the Liberty and Duke\u2019s Mayo bowls possibly looking for replacements. The Liberty picks up the first American Conference selection if it has an SEC team in its game. Look for Navy to earn that spot.<\/p>\n

If BYU does not qualify for the CFP, it likely will return to the Alamo Bowl. The Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando then will select between TCU and Houston. The Cougars have a better record (9-3 to 8-4) but TCU won the head-to-head matchup. The Liberty picks next and usually would grab Iowa State without thinking, but the Cyclones are lukewarm about returning to Memphis and would prefer the Rate Bowl in Phoenix, where they could play Minnesota.<\/p>\n

The Big Ten\u2019s bowl lineup appears fairly solid, with Michigan heading to the Citrus for the first time since 2019 and Iowa going back to Tampa for the first time since 2018. Nebraska\u2019s fan base will help the Huskers head to Las Vegas to face Utah. Illinois appears the likely choice in Nashville.<\/p>\n

Kansas State reportedly will not accept a bowl invitation, but that decision is not finalized. That would create an opening for a 5-7 team to join the CFP field, and qualification is based on the NCAA\u2019s Academic Progress Rate. Among 5-7 teams, Auburn (990) has the highest APR with Rice (988) and UCF (986) next in line.<\/p>\n

Evergreen notes:<\/p>\n

The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls. Teams seeded 5-8 host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively. The next-highest ranked squad heads to the closest remaining bowl site to its campus.<\/p>\n

The former Pac-12 schools still fall under the conference\u2019s old agreements. It\u2019s possible to see current in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.<\/p>\nBowlMatchup<\/tr>\n\n\n LA
\n Dec. 13, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 6 Washington<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC 1 Boise State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Salute to Veterans
\n Dec. 16, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Louisiana<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Central Michigan<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Cure
\n Dec. 17, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Old Dominion<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5\/Open South Florida<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n 68 Ventures
\n Dec. 17, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Southern Miss<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Miami (OH)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n XBox
\n Dec. 18, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5 Missouri State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5 Arkansas State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Myrtle Beach
\n Dec. 19, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Georgia Southern<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Delaware<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Gasparilla
\n Dec. 19, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC\/ACC\/AAC Kennesaw State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open UConn<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Famous Idaho Potato
\n Dec. 22, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC Utah State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Toledo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Boca Raton
\n Dec. 23, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Coastal Carolina<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Florida International<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n New Orleans
\n Dec. 23, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Troy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

CUSA Jacksonville State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Frisco
\n Dec. 23, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5 Texas State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

G5 Fresno State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Hawai’i
\n Dec. 24, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC Hawaii<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

American\/Other California<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n GameAbove Sports
\n Dec. 26, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 8 Northwestern<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Ohio<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Rate
\n Dec. 26, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 7 Minnesota<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 6 Iowa State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n First Responder
\n Dec. 26, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Western Kentucky<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open UTSA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Military
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

American Memphis<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 8 Louisville<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Pinstripe
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 6 Penn State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Fenway
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 9 NC State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

American Army<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Arizona
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC San Diego State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC 2 Western Michigan<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Pop-Tarts
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 3 TCU<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 Notre Dame<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n New Mexico
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC New Mexico<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open Washington State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Gator
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Missouri<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Texas
\n Dec. 27, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 4 Houston<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 LSU<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Birmingham
\n Dec. 29, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC\/SEC\/Open East Carolina<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC\/ACC\/Open Duke<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Independence
\n Dec. 30, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 7 Kansas State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

CUSA\/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Music City
\n Dec. 30, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 5 Illinois<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Tennessee<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Alamo
\n Dec. 30, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 2 BYU<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 2 USC<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n ReliaQuest
\n Dec. 31, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 3 Iowa<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Sun
\n Dec. 31, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Clemson<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 5 Arizona State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Citrus
\n Dec. 31, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 2 Michigan<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 2 Texas<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Las Vegas
\n Dec. 31, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 3 Utah<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 4 Nebraska<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Armed Forces
\n Jan. 2, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Open UNLV<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

American North Texas<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Liberty
\n Jan. 2, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 5 Cincinnati<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Navy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Duke’s Mayo
\n Jan. 2, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 James Madison<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Wake Forest<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Holiday
\n Jan. 3, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 SMU<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 4 Arizona<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\nBowlMatchup<\/tr>\n\n\n Playoff
\n Dec. 19, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

7 Texas A&M<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

10 Miami (FL)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Playoff
\n Dec. 20, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

6 Ole Miss<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

11 Virginia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Playoff
\n Dec. 20, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

5 Oregon<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

12 Tulane<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Playoff
\n Dec. 20, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

8 Oklahoma<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

9 Alabama<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Cotton
\n Dec. 31, 2025\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

3 Indiana<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Ole Miss\/UVA winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Orange
\n Jan. 1, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

4 Texas Tech<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ORE\/Tulane winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Rose
\n Jan. 1, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

1 Ohio State<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

OU\/Bama winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Sugar
\n Jan. 1, 2026\n <\/td>\n\"Logo<\/p>\n

2 Georgia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

A&M\/Miami winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Fiesta
\n Jan. 8, 2026\n <\/td>\n\n

QF winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

QF winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Peach
\n Jan. 9, 2026\n <\/td>\n\n

QF winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

QF winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n Championship
\n Jan. 19, 2026\n <\/td>\n\n

SF winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

SF winner<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of the 2025 SEC Championship between Alabama and Georgia and the 2025 Big…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":430048,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[3917,35604,35594,1373,1428,3909,1372,35596,12806,1318,23536,2500,3915,9443,1379,8798,8797,35607,8795,3914,35600,1426,4739,7800,35608,9444,35601,1317,1315,1316,11995,35603,3910,1380,4733,21286,30698,1381,35606,8796,3916,14971,35597,62,35602,22503,35593,9662,8799,35598,35599,35595,67,132,68,32858,35605,1374,27637,1427],"class_list":{"0":"post-430047","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-baylor-bears","9":"tag-boston-college-eagles","10":"tag-cincinnati-bearcats","11":"tag-clemson-tigers","12":"tag-college-football","13":"tag-connecticut-huskies","14":"tag-duke-blue-devils","15":"tag-east-carolina-pirates","16":"tag-florida-state-seminoles","17":"tag-football","18":"tag-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets","19":"tag-houston-cougars","20":"tag-illinois-fighting-illini","21":"tag-indiana-hoosiers","22":"tag-iowa-hawkeyes","23":"tag-iowa-state-cyclones","24":"tag-kansas-jayhawks","25":"tag-kansas-state-wildcats","26":"tag-louisville-cardinals","27":"tag-maryland-terrapins","28":"tag-memphis-tigers","29":"tag-miami-hurricanes","30":"tag-michigan-state-spartans","31":"tag-michigan-wolverines","32":"tag-middle-tennessee-blue-raider","33":"tag-minnesota-golden-gophers","34":"tag-navy-midshipmen","35":"tag-ncaa","36":"tag-ncaa-football","37":"tag-ncaafootball","38":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","39":"tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","40":"tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","41":"tag-northwestern-wildcats","42":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","43":"tag-oklahoma-sooners","44":"tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","45":"tag-penn-state-nittany-lions","46":"tag-pittsburgh-panthers","47":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","48":"tag-rutgers-scarlet-knights","49":"tag-smu-mustangs","50":"tag-south-florida-bulls","51":"tag-sports","52":"tag-syracuse-orange","53":"tag-tcu-horned-frogs","54":"tag-temple-owls","55":"tag-texas-longhorns","56":"tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","57":"tag-tulane-green-wave","58":"tag-tulsa-golden-hurricane","59":"tag-ucf-knights","60":"tag-united-states","61":"tag-unitedstates","62":"tag-us","63":"tag-virginia-cavaliers","64":"tag-virginia-tech-hokies","65":"tag-wake-forest-demon-deacons","66":"tag-west-virginia-mountaineers","67":"tag-wisconsin-badgers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=430047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/430048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=430047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=430047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=430047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}