{"id":434852,"date":"2025-12-09T05:04:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T05:04:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/434852\/"},"modified":"2025-12-09T05:04:31","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T05:04:31","slug":"rba-live-updates-reserve-bank-leaves-rates-on-hold-at-3-6pc-economists-divided-on-rates-trajectory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/434852\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA live updates: Reserve Bank leaves rates on hold at 3.6pc, economists divided on rates trajectory"},"content":{"rendered":"

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:31amReserve Bank keeps cash rate on hold\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

The RBA board has left the cash rate on hold at 3.6% in December.<\/p>\n

2m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 5:00am<\/p>\n

Bullock doesn’t blame music fans for inflation\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Things are getting a bit jovial, with Ms Bullock asked if she attended Oasis or Metallica or Lady Gaga on their recent Australian tours.<\/p>\n

She says no, but she is going to a Boy and Bear gig.<\/p>\n

She’s asked that if consumers spend up big in the silly season, will it “come back to bite them” at the next RBA meeting in February.<\/p>\n

“People often put a lot of emphasis on big events\u2026 I think it’s also true, though, that people who are going to these big events often are sacrificing other things,” Ms Bullock says.<\/p>\n

\n

“If they’re going to spend that much money on an Oasis concert and accommodation and all that sort of thing, they might be forgoing, you know, some coffees or a breakfast out\u2026<\/p>\n

“So I think you can’t think about them in isolation and just say all these big events add to inflation. I don’t think it necessarily works that way.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Loading<\/p>\n

6m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:56am<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcf8 Michele Bullock delivering her December press conference\"Emily<\/p>\n

Business correspondent David Taylor <\/b>snapped this pic, by the looks of it from the front row:<\/p>\n

\"AMichele Bullock (ABC News: David Taylor)<\/p>\n

DT asked Ms Bullock what the most challenging conversation she had in 2025 was.<\/p>\n

“You mean personally?” she laughs. “I’ve had a few of those personally!”<\/p>\n

On a serious note, she says she’s had some challenging conversations with internal RBA staff.<\/p>\n

\n

“I don’t mean challenging in the sense that I felt in any sense affronted by it, but you know, I’ve been trying to encourage people to speak out and disagree with me if they want to.<\/p>\n

“And sometimes that’s meant that people have come up with views and expressed views that were in very direct opposition to me\u2026<\/p>\n

“That’s part of my remit. But I’d say for me, 2025 has seen a bit of a change in the way that we have had internal conversations. And I think that challenge has been good.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

11m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:52amToo many rate cuts in hindsight?\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

A follow up from David Chau<\/b>\u00a0\u2014 if the RBA does end up hiking, is that an admission that it cut rates too many times in 2025?<\/p>\n

Ms Bullock says “you could read it that way” but notes a lot has changed.<\/p>\n

\n

“You go back six or seven months and a lot of people were saying we needed to drop interest rates quite a lot because things were very, very soft.<\/p>\n

“The board has been cautious, I think that has been borne out.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

18m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:44amNo rate cuts on horizon for foreseeable future: Bullock\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Our business reporter David Chau<\/b>\u00a0cuts to the chase and asks whether a rate cut or rate hike next year is the more probable outcome, eliciting a laugh from the governor.<\/p>\n

\n

“I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon for the foreseeable future. The question is, is it just an extended hold from here or is it the possibility of a rate rise?<\/p>\n

“I couldn’t put a probability on those, but I think they’re the two things that the board will be looking closely at coming into the new year.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

You couldn’t really get much clearer.<\/p>\n

20m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:42amASX, Aussie dollar reaction to a hawkish bullock\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

The Aussie dollar has risen<\/b> since the start of Ms Bullcok’s press conference, up 0.2% to 66.39 US cents.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has extended losses<\/b>, now down 0.4%<\/p>\n

That indicates traders are viewing Ms Bullock’s comments as hawkish, unsurprisingly given she’s talking very much about an extended hold or rate rises, taking rate cuts off the horizon.<\/p>\n

24m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:39amBullock won’t put timing on hike, says ‘meeting by meeting decision’\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Asked about how much more inflation data the RBA would need to see before considering a rate hike, Ms Bullock declines to put timing on it.<\/p>\n

She notes that if inflation looks to be persistent rather than due to one off items, it raises questions including “how restrictive are financial conditions”.<\/p>\n

\n

“We’ve been judging that financial conditions were still a little bit tight.<\/p>\n

“If inflation continues to be persistent and looks like it is not coming back down towards the target, then I think that does raise questions about how tight financial conditions are and the board might have to consider whether or not it’s appropriate to keep interest rates where they are or in fact at some point raise them.<\/p>\n

“But I wouldn’t put a timing on that. It’s going to be a meeting by meeting decision.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

28m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:35amWe didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all RBA: Bullock\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Ok here we go \u2014 straight into the hard questions and Michele Bullock isn’t backing away at all.<\/p>\n

“We didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all.<\/p>\n

“We didn’t explicitly consider the case for a rate rise at this meeting, but we did consider and discuss quite a lot the circumstances and what might need to happen if it we would decide that interest rates had to rise again at some point next year.”<\/p>\n

So certaintly “no cut” on the table today, Ms Bullock says.<\/p>\n

31m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:31amMichele Bullock speaking in Sydney\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

The RBA governor has stepped up and is delivering her opening remarks.<\/p>\n

She said the board is “alert” to the signs of a more broad-based pick up inflation but is cautious on how much signal to take from the new monthly Consumer Price Index figures, which were hotter-than-expected.<\/p>\n

35m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:27am<\/p>\n

Michele Bullock to face questions on rates outlook\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Michele Bullock<\/b> has avoided Christmas-related tabloid headlines, by failing to deliver either a Christmas present for mortgage borrowers in the form of a rate cut or to play the Grinch by hiking in December.<\/p>\n

So it’s likely many of the questions she’ll face will be about the outlook for 2026.<\/p>\n

Here’s a view from the room from business editor Michael Janda<\/b>.<\/p>\n

\"\"RBA press conference set up (ABC News: Michael Janda)<\/p>\n

38m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:24am<\/p>\n

RBA Governor Michele Bullock to speak shortly\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

We’ll be live blogging the RBA governor’s press conference <\/b>at 3:30pm AEDT <\/b>and you can also watch it on ABC News Channel:<\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"43m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:20amWhat does the RBA decision mean for housing trends?\"Emily<\/p>\n

Growth in house prices could flatten<\/b>, says Cotality<\/b>‘s research director Tim Lawless<\/b>, writing on what could happen to the property market if rates remain on hold.<\/p>\n

\n

“An extended period of stable interest rates against a backdrop of rising home values is likely to temper home purchasing demand,” he explained.<\/p>\n

“Households on the median income have already seen their lift to borrowing capacity eroded by higher home values.<\/p>\n

“Any hawkish shift in the RBA\u2019s tone toward the outlook for interest rates would weigh on confidence and dampen transaction activity.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Mr Lawless says the most activity will probably remain in the lower end of the market.<\/p>\n

\n

“With rates on hold for the foreseeable future, lower quartile home values are likely to remain the stronger segment of the market, as mainstream demand is deflected towards the lower price points amid affordability and serviceability constraints.<\/p>\n

“Competition among first home buyers and investors is already seeing values rise faster across the lower price points of the market.<\/p>\n

“Conversely, growth in house values across the upper quartile markets of Sydney and Melbourne has already shown signs of flattening as demand funnels towards more affordable housing options.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

44m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:18amInterest rates on hold an ‘expected result’: Treasurer\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Treasurer Jim Chalmers<\/b>\u00a0spoke a short time ago, saying the ‘on hold’ decision was an expected result.<\/p>\n

“A lot of Australians would have wanted some more rate relief but they wouldn’t have expected it,” Chalmers said.<\/p>\n

He noted the RBA’s mention of private demand, saying the “heavy lifting” in the economy is now being done by the private sector.<\/p>\n

\n

“We want to see this inflation moderate more, but it is only a bit over half what we inherited when we came to office, so Australians have made a lot of progress together on inflation, on real wages, on this recovery in the private sector,” the treasurer said.<\/p>\n

“We know there is more work to do and there are elements of the Reserve Bank statement that make this clear.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

51m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:12am<\/p>\n

Market still pricing in rate hike by August\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Market pricing for interest rate\u00a0 hikes is not much changed from pre-RBA decision, a quick check of Bloomberg<\/b>\u00a0reveals.<\/p>\n

An 0.25 percentage point rate hike is fully priced in by August 2026<\/p>\n

55m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:07amEconomists divided on direction of next RBA move\"Emily<\/p>\n

The analyst notes hitting our inboxes have wildly different views on what the Reserve Bank will do next.<\/p>\n

Callam Pickering, APAC economist at Indeed says if inflation persists, they may have to\u00a0hike rates\u00a0<\/b>at the next board meeting in February.<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

\u201cIf high inflation persists through December and January, then the RBA may have no choice but to hike rates when they meet in February. A failure to do so would ultimately undermine their credibility as an inflation targeting central bank.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHigh inflation is incredibly damaging to an economy, impacting every business and household, but the burden falls primarily on lower income households and small businesses. Higher interest rates won\u2019t be welcomed – they never are – but at least the burden of higher rates primarily falls on middle and higher income earners.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

PIMCO Head of Australia Portfolio Management, Adam Bowe, says it’s ‘premature’ to conclude the easing cycle is over<\/b>.<\/p>\n

\n

“Pauses are common features of RBA monetary policy cycles, both on the way up and the way down. As households and businesses remove expectations of lower interest rates from their spending plans for 2026 we expect the growth and inflation data to moderate.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, the Australia Institute’s chief economist Greg Jericho says cuts are just as likely as hikes in 2026.<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

“The inflation increase in October, from 3.6% to 3.8%, was largely a one-off response to the ending of power bill subsidies. That isn’t a trend,” he said.<\/p>\n

“The truth is, market predictions of rate hikes and cuts will swing with new data on inflation, economic growth, real wages and unemployment.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:59amASX, Aussie dollar barely budge on RBA hold\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

There’s been a pretty muted reaction on markets to the RBA’s (widely anticipated) decision to keep the cash rate on hold.<\/p>\n

At 2.30pm AEDT the ASX 200<\/b> had a very, very brief spike but is now pretty much where it was before the decision, around 0.2% weaker<\/b> at 8,606 points.<\/p>\n

\"\"ASX 200 on Tuesday (LSEG Refinitiv)<\/p>\n

The Aussie dollar is steady around 66.25 US cents.<\/p>\n

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:55am<\/p>\n

RBA could still cut rates in 2026, says economist\"Emily<\/p>\n

Going against the forecasts of most economists and the markets, KPMG says there is still an opportunity for the RBA to cut rates in 2026.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

“Although the likelihood of a further rate cut has diminished, KPMG still believes that there may be an opportunity for the RBA to cut rates further in the first half of 2026,” said KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

He says it will depend on how fiscal policy plays out over the coming months and whether the transition of demand from the public sector to the private sector continues.<\/p>\n

KPMG analysis (which removes electricity rebates from the CPI calculations) suggests headline inflation is about 3.2% (instead of 3.8%) and that the growth in inflation has been slowing in each 3 month period of the past year. This suggests that as the high monthly volatility drops out as the year progresses, inflation will fall closer to the RBA target band.<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

“While the pace of economic growth is not stellar, there is evidence that in the current low-productivity environment it is still exerting upward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n

This, together with continued price growth in the non-market sector of the economy, is likely to keep inflation at the upper end of the target band in the near term, reducing the likelihood of reaching the mid-point of 2.5% being targeted by the RBA and providing an opportunity for another rate cut.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Mr Rynne says today’s decision to keep rates on hold was the right call.<\/p>\n

\n

“While it might not be the news mortgage holders were looking for, the RBA was right in holding off on any change to the cash rate, be that up or down,” said KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne.<\/p>\n

“We believe the RBA should continue to wait for the next few months to better understand whether the recent rises in inflation are the start of an upward trend or a temporary blip that will dissipate.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:50amRBA will tighten policy as soon as February: Capital Economics\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Initial notes are filtering through and this one from Capital Economics<\/b>\u00a0has just hit the inbox.<\/p>\n

“The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike,” they wrote in a note.<\/p>\n

They describe the RBA’s statement as “rather hawkish”<\/b>.<\/p>\n

“While the Bank noted that some of the recent pick-up in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, it argued that the ‘data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring’,” Capital Economics wrote.<\/p>\n

\n

“It’s possible that the RBA will just sit out the current strength in underlying inflation.<\/p>\n

“However, this is a risky strategy\u2026<\/p>\n

“The [Central] Bank noted that it will take its time to assess the strength of underlying inflationary pressures and highlighted that it still expects a further easing of the labour market.<\/p>\n

“Given the renewed pick-up in economic activity, that’s unlikely to materialise though and we expect the Bank to hike its policy rate again as soon as February.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:45am<\/p>\n

‘Effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully’\"Michael<\/p>\n

If there’s one thing that would be worrying the Reserve Bank, it’s that the recent pick-up in economic growth and inflation has taken place despite the lagged effect of interest rates, which often taken between 12-18 months to have their full effect on the economy.<\/p>\n

\n

“Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to demand, prices and wages,” the RBA’s board notes in its post-meeting statement.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That would suggest the need to get ahead of the curve and raise rates sooner rather than later, if inflation is indeed again becoming problematic.<\/p>\n

\n

“On the other hand, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen more recently,” the RBA adds.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That is the bank’s way of saying that financial markets are already doing some of its work for it, as market rates rise, especially longer-term interest rates.<\/p>\n

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:37am<\/p>\n

How has the RBA’s cash rate tracked?\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Here’s how the RBA’s cash rate has been tracking \u2014 today’s ‘on hold’ decision leaves it steady at 3.6% heading into 2026, the third straight meeting of no change from the central bank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:31amReserve Bank keeps cash rate on hold The RBA board has left…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":434853,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[17705,17707,7566,64,9400,79,267,13328,98347,13326,17706,67,132,68,3642],"class_list":{"0":"post-434852","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-asx","9":"tag-australian-dollar","10":"tag-bitcoin","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-dow-jones","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-interest-rates","15":"tag-rate-cut","16":"tag-rate-hike","17":"tag-rba","18":"tag-share-market","19":"tag-united-states","20":"tag-unitedstates","21":"tag-us","22":"tag-wall-street"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115687869741029856","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434852\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/434853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}