{"id":441200,"date":"2025-12-12T00:07:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T00:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/441200\/"},"modified":"2025-12-12T00:07:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T00:07:22","slug":"stock-market-outlook-dismal-decade-for-sp-500-on-wall-streets-radar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/441200\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook: Dismal Decade for S&#038;P 500 on Wall Street&#8217;s Radar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A dark thought is starting to circulate around Wall Street. What if, after years of stellar gains, the <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/stocks\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">US stock market<\/a> is basically flat for the next decade?<\/p>\n<p>That feels like an unbelievable idea given the current bull run for the stock market, which is just the latest in a larger secular rally that&#8217;s been going on for almost 15 years.<\/p>\n<p>The gains continued to pile up on Thursday. As investors fled tech amid <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/oracle-earnings-ai-stocks-capex-overspending-orcl-nvda-avgo-2025-12\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">worries about Oracle&#8217;s earnings<\/a>, they pumped the benchmark S&amp;P 500 and the Dow to fresh record highs. <\/p>\n<p>But the possibility of the party soon coming to an end is being floated by a growing number of forecasters, who see two main reasons the market could be held back:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Valuations:<\/strong> Stocks are historically expensive. The <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/index\/s&amp;p_500\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 27, above the 5-year average range of 19.5-25.4, according to an analysis from World PE Ratio.\n<p>Other valuation measures, like the <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/warren-buffett-indicator-stock-valuations-cape-pe-ratios-ai-boom-2025-10\" rel=\"noopener\">Warren Buffett Indicator<\/a>, have also recently suggested that stocks are overvalued.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>An aging <\/strong><a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/personal-finance\/investing\/what-is-a-bull-market\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>bull market<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>Stocks have been on an amazing run-up over the last few years. The S&amp;P 500 is up more than 90% from its low in 2022, around the time stocks began to climb out of bear market territory. Moreover, stocks have been in a larger secular bull market since the economy climbed out of the depths of the Great Financial Crisis around 2009.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now, more analysts see what could be a lost decade coming for stocks \u2014 a 10-year period where the US market sees near-zero returns or severely lags other markets around the world.<\/p>\n<p>In a note this week, <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/best-investments-investing-strategy-60-40-portfolio-stocks-bonds-bofa-2025-12\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">Bank of America<\/a> said its team of equity strategists saw the S&amp;P 500 shedding 0.1% over the next decade. Historically, that&#8217;s a terrible performance, given that the S&amp;P 500 has gained an <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/personal-finance\/investing\/average-stock-market-return\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">average 10.5% a year<\/a> since the 1950s.<\/p>\n<p>Strategists pointed to high valuations and back-to-back years of double-digit growth in the benchmark index.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Even for next year, the math of history is tough: average returns for the <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/sp500-index-funds-stock-market-valuations-cape-ratio-future-returns-2024-8\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> after 3 years of &gt;15% growth are 2.3ppt lower than the average annual return. Investors may need GDP &amp; EPS surprises to avoid a seventh &#8216;lost decade,'&#8221; BofA wrote in a client note.<\/p>\n<p>Torsten Sl\u00f8k, the chief economist at Apollo, also said he expects the S&amp;P 500 to remain relatively flat for the next 10 years. That projection is based on where the <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/personal-finance\/investing\/what-is-pe-ratio\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">forward price-to-earnings<\/a> ratio of the S&amp;P 500 currently resides, he said on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>              <img xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"lazy-image \" encoding=\"UTF-8\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" data-content-type=\"image\/png\" srcs=\"{&quot;https:\/\/i.insider.com\/693af61f04eda4732f2d5c5f&quot;:{&quot;contentType&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;aspectRatioW&quot;:1915,&quot;aspectRatioH&quot;:1044}}\" alt=\"Chart showing S&amp;P 500 projected returns based on its forward price-to-earnings ratio\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                      Given the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s forward P\/E ratio, the index is expected to remain about flat over the next 10 years, Apollo said.<\/p>\n<p>              Bloomberg\/Apollo Chief Economist<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The historical relationship between the S&amp;P 500 forward P\/E ratio and subsequent 10-year annualized returns shows that investors should expect to get zero in return in the S&amp;P 500 over the coming decade,&#8221; Sl\u00f8k said.<\/p>\n<p>In November, Goldman Sachs analysts said they saw the <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/stock-market-forecast-sp500-returns-emerigng-markets-international-goldman-sachs-2025-11\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">US market coming in last place<\/a> for returns in the coming 10-year stretch. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to gain around 6.5% a year for the next 10 years, the bank estimated, falling short of estimated returns in Europe, Japan, Asia, and emerging markets.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>The bank said it expected <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/earnings-season-quarterly-reports-stocks-markets\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"noopener\">earnings<\/a> growth to be stronger in other markets. Valuations in the US are also high and on track to decline around 1% annually over the next decade, per Goldman&#8217;s analysis.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If the profitability and\/or valuations of the largest companies falter, unless another cohort of &#8216;superstars&#8217; emerges, returns for the broad market will likely be hampered as today&#8217;s largest stocks fall back to earth,&#8221; analysts wrote of their bearish scenario for the US market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A dark thought is starting to circulate around Wall Street. What if, after years of stellar gains, the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":441201,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[203570,27227,64,203567,203568,87677,9106,203564,203566,25239,203569,17710,51467,67,132,68,203565,3642,1628],"class_list":{"0":"post-441200","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-average-return","9":"tag-bank","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-dismal-decade","12":"tag-equity-strategist","13":"tag-high-valuation","14":"tag-market","15":"tag-near-zero-return","16":"tag-next-decade","17":"tag-note","18":"tag-other-market","19":"tag-sp","20":"tag-torsten-slok","21":"tag-united-states","22":"tag-unitedstates","23":"tag-us","24":"tag-us-stock","25":"tag-wall-street","26":"tag-year"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115703686425497240","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441200"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/441200\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/441201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=441200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=441200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}