{"id":446417,"date":"2025-12-14T12:07:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T12:07:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/446417\/"},"modified":"2025-12-14T12:07:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T12:07:14","slug":"strategist-garry-south-and-mark-z-barabak-debate-newsom-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/446417\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategist Garry South and Mark Z. Barabak debate Newsom 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Gavin Newsom<\/a> is off and running, eyeing the White House<\/a> as he enters the far turn and his final year as California governor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The track record for California Democrats and the presidency is not a good one. In the nearly 250 years of these United States, not one Left Coast Democrat has ever been elected president. Kamala Harris is just the latest to fail<\/a>. (Twice<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Can Newsom break that losing streak and make history in 2028<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Faithful readers of this column \u2014 both of you \u2014 certainly know how I feel<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Garry South disagrees.<\/p>\n

The veteran Democratic campaign strategist, who has been described as possessing \u201ca pile-driving personality and blast furnace of a mouth\u201d \u2014 by me, actually<\/a> \u2014 has never lacked for strong and colorful opinions. Here, in an email exchange, we hash out our differences.<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: You once worked for Newsom, did you not?<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: Indeed I did. I was a senior strategist in his first campaign for governor<\/a>. It lasted 15 months in 2008 and 2009. He exited the race<\/a> when we couldn\u2019t figure out how to beat Jerry Brown in a closed Democratic primary.<\/p>\n

I happen to be the one who wrote the catchy punch line for Newsom\u2019s speech to the state Democratic convention in 2009<\/a>, that the race was a choice between \u201ca stroll down memory lane vs. a sprint into the future.\u201d <\/p>\n

We ended up on memory lane.<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: Do you still advise Newsom, or members of his political team?<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: No, though he and I are in regular contact and have been since his days as lieutenant governor<\/a>. I know many of his staff and consultants, but don\u2019t work with them in any paid capacity. Also, the governor\u2019s sister and I are friends.<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: You observed Newsom up close in that 2010 race. What are his strengths as a campaigner?<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: Newsom is a masterful communicator, has great stage presence, cuts a commanding figure and can hold an audience in the palm <\/a>of his hand when he\u2019s really on. He has a mind like a steel trap and never forgets anything he is told or reads. <\/p>\n

I\u2019ve always attributed his amazing recall to the struggle he has reading, due to his lifelong struggle with severe dyslexia<\/a>. Because it\u2019s such an arduous effort for Newsom to read, what he does read is emblazoned on his mind in seeming perpetuity.<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: Demerits, or weaknesses?<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: Given his remarkable command of facts and data and mastery of the English language, he can sometimes run on too long. During that first gubernatorial campaign, when he was still mayor of San Francisco, he once gave a seven-hour State of the City address. <\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: Fidel Castro must have been impressed<\/a>!<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: It wasn\u2019t as bad as sounds: It was broken into 10 \u201cWebisodes\u201d on his YouTube channel. But still \u2026<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: So let\u2019s get to it. I think Newsom\u2019s chances of being elected president are somewhere between slim and none \u2014 and slim was last seen alongside I-5, in San Ysidro, thumbing a ride to Mexico. <\/p>\n

You don\u2019t agree.<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: I don\u2019t agree at all. I think you\u2019re underestimating the Trumpian changes wrought (rot?) upon our political system over the past 10 years.<\/p>\n

The election of Trump, a convicted felon<\/a>, not once but twice<\/a>, has really blown to hell the conventional paradigms we\u2019ve had for decades in terms of how we assess the viability of presidential candidates \u2014 what state they\u2019re from, their age<\/a>, if they have glitches in their personal or professional life.<\/p>\n

Not to mention, oh, their criminal record, if they have one.<\/p>\n

The American people actually elected for a second term a guy who fomented a rebellion against his own country when he was president the first time, including an armed assault on our own national capitol<\/a> in which a woman was killed and for which he was rightly impeached<\/a>. It\u2019s foolish not to conclude that the old rules, the old conventional wisdom about what voters will accept and what they will not, are out the window for good.<\/p>\n

It also doesn\u2019t surprise me that you pooh-pooh Newsom\u2019s prospects. It\u2019s typical of the home-state reporting corps to guffaw when their own governor is touted as a presidential candidate. <\/p>\n

One, familiarity breeds contempt. Two, a prophet is without honor in his own country.<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: I\u2019ll grant you a couple of points.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m old enough to remember when friends in the Arkansas political press corps scoffed at the notion their governor, the phenomenally gifted but wildly undisciplined Bill Clinton<\/a>, could ever be elected president<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I also remember those old Clairol hair-color ads: \u201cThe closer he gets … the better you look!\u201d (Google it, kids). It\u2019s precisely the opposite when it comes to presidential hopefuls and the reporters who cover them day-in, day-out.<\/p>\n

And you\u2019re certainly correct, the nature of what constitutes scandal, or disqualifies a presidential candidate, has drastically changed<\/a> in the Trump era.<\/p>\n

All of that said, certain fundamentals remain the same. Harking back to that 1992 Clinton campaign<\/a>, it\u2019s still the economy, stupid. Or, put another way, it\u2019s about folks\u2019 lived experience, their economic security, or lack thereof, and personal well-being.<\/p>\n

Newsom is, for the moment, a favorite among the chattering political class and online activists because a) those are the folks who are already engaged in the 2028 race and b) many of them thrill to his Trumpian takedowns<\/a> of the president on social media.<\/p>\n

When the focus turns to matters affecting voters\u2019 ability to pay for housing<\/a>, healthcare<\/a>, groceries, utility bills<\/a> and to just get by, Newsom\u2019s opponents will have a heyday trashing him and California\u2019s steep prices, homelessness<\/a> and shrinking middle class<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Vice <\/p>\n

Kamala Harris twice bid unsuccessfully for the White House. Her losses kept alive an unbroken string of losses by Left Coast Democrats.<\/p>\n

(Kent Nishimura \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: It\u2019s not just the chattering class. <\/p>\n

Newsom\u2019s now the leading candidate among rank-and-file Democrats. They had been pleading \u2014 begging \u2014 for years that some Democratic leader step out of the box, step up to the plate, and fight back, giving Trump a dose of his own medicine<\/a>. Newsom has been meeting that demand with wit, skill and doggedness \u2014 not just on social media, but through passage of Proposition 50<\/a>, the Democratic gerrymandering measure.<\/p>\n

And Democrats recognize and appreciate it<\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: Hmmm. Perhaps I\u2019m somewhat lacking in imagination, but I just can\u2019t picture a world where Democrats say, \u201cHey, the solution to our soul-crushing defeat in 2024 is to nominate another well-coiffed, left-leaning product of that bastion of homespun Americana, San Francisco.\u201d<\/p>\n

South:<\/b> Uh, Americans twice now have elected a president not just from New York City, but who lived in an ivory tower in Manhattan<\/a>, in a penthouse with a 24-carat-gold front door (and, allegedly, gold-plated toilet seats). You think Manhattan is a soup\u00e7on more representative of middle America than San Francisco? <\/p>\n

Like I said, state of origin is less important now after the Trump precedent. <\/p>\n

Barabak<\/b>: Trump was a larger-than-life<\/a> \u2014 or at least larger-than-Manhattan \u2014 celebrity. Geography wasn\u2019t an impediment because he had \u2014 and has \u2014 a remarkable ability, far beyond my reckoning, to present himself as a tribune of the working class<\/a>, the downtrodden and economically struggling Americans, even as he spreads gold leaf around himself<\/a> like a kid with a can of Silly String.<\/b><\/p>\n

Speaking of Kamala Harris, she hasn\u2019t ruled out a third try<\/a> at the White House in 2028. Where would you place your money in a Newsom-Harris throwdown for the Democratic nomination? How about Harris in the general election, against whomever Republicans choose<\/a>?<\/p>\n

South<\/b>: Harris running again in 2028 would be like Michael Dukakis making a second try<\/a> for president in 1992. My God, she not only lost every swing state, and the electoral college by nearly 100 votes, Harris also lost the popular vote \u2014 the first Democrat to do so in 20 years. <\/p>\n

If she doesn\u2019t want to embarrass herself, she should listen to her home-state voters, who in the latest CBS News\/YouGov poll said she shouldn\u2019t run again \u2014 by a margin of 69-31. (Even 52% of Democrats said no). She\u2019s yesterday\u2019s news.<\/p>\n

Barabak:<\/b> Seems as though you feel one walk down memory lane was quite enough. We\u2019ll see if Harris \u2014 and, more pertinently, Democratic primary voters \u2014 agree.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gavin Newsom is off and running, eyeing the White House as he enters the far turn and his…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":446418,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5123],"tags":[205459,1582,276,93619,64098,27593,2961,224,5337,3435,5207,205460,6176,205461,2750,205462,3948,277,9111,5223],"class_list":{"0":"post-446417","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-los-angeles","8":"tag-barabak","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-california","11":"tag-california-governor","12":"tag-final-year","13":"tag-kamala-harris","14":"tag-la","15":"tag-los-angeles","16":"tag-losangeles","17":"tag-newsom","18":"tag-president","19":"tag-presidential-candidate","20":"tag-race","21":"tag-rank-and-file-democrats","22":"tag-san-francisco","23":"tag-seven-hour-state","24":"tag-south","25":"tag-trump","26":"tag-voter","27":"tag-white-house"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115717842323507410","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/446417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=446417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/446417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/446418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=446417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=446417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=446417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}