{"id":447108,"date":"2025-12-14T19:54:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T19:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/447108\/"},"modified":"2025-12-14T19:54:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T19:54:11","slug":"the-world-will-end-in-2040-2025-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/447108\/","title":{"rendered":"The World Will End in 2040 \u2014 2025 Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Economics is a philosophy for supplying parasites with an operating system that provides the most efficient means of devouring its host.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Trenz Pruca<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

Apocalypse Pending \u2014 Please Hold<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is an update of my 2019 post of the same title, written in a simpler time when the biggest threat to our sanity was the potential re-election of He-Who-Is-Not-My-President. That original post can be found here:
https:\/\/trenzpruca.wordpress.com\/2019\/07\/13\/todays-fractured-factoid-the-world-will-end-in-2040\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

In 1973, MIT researchers fed a lot of early computer data into a model called World3<\/strong> and asked:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cHow long can industrial-era humans keep partying like we have infinite planets?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

World3 replied:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cAbout another 70 years.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Which gave us a number: 2040<\/strong> \u2014 the approximate \u201cend of civilization as we know it,\u201d absent major changes. It also flagged 2020<\/strong> as the moment where things begin to wobble.<\/p>\n

A charming idea in 2019.
Less charming in 2025.<\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s walk through what\u2019s happened since \u2014 and why the model\u2019s ghost is still tapping its watch like a disapproving librarian.<\/p>\n

I. A BRIEF HISTORY OF \u201cWHO SAW THIS COMING?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 1970s were a wild time: disco, Watergate, platform shoes, and the na\u00efve hope that computing might solve all human problems. Into that haze came Limits to Growth<\/strong>, warning that:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    Population<\/strong> will rise<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Pollution<\/strong> will rise<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Resources<\/strong> will fall<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Industrial output<\/strong> will peak, then crash<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Social systems<\/strong> will break under the strain<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    World3 was not predicting meteors or killer robots \u2014 just the math of overshoot<\/strong>. Endless growth on a finite planet doesn\u2019t end with a bang. It ends like a Jenga tower: slowly, then all at once.<\/p>\n

    Their projections gave three timelines:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      Best case<\/strong> \u2014 global cooperation and sustainability<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      Moderate case<\/strong> \u2014 eventually painful adjustment<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      Business As Usual<\/strong> \u2014 collapse around 2040<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      You\u2019ll never guess which one humanity chose.
      (Hint: it wasn\u2019t #1.)<\/p>\n

      II. \u201cBUSINESS AS USUAL\u201d: A PROGRESS REPORT<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Since 1973, we have performed a half-century-long demonstration of How To Ignore Every Warning Sign Ever.<\/p>\n

      Population:<\/strong> doubled
      Energy use:<\/strong> skyrocketed
      CO\u2082:<\/strong> up-up-up
      Inequality:<\/strong> locked-in
      Political sanity:<\/strong> down the storm drain<\/p>\n

      We squeezed resources like they were stress balls, then complained that the stress didn\u2019t go away. And we dumped trash into the only biosphere we have, like a teenager who thinks the laundry basket has magical powers.<\/p>\n

      The MIT model didn\u2019t include \u201cTikTok,\u201d but it did predict general brain-rot as society gets overwhelmed.<\/p>\n

      On that front, we are overachieving.<\/p>\n

      III. THE \u201cBIG CHANGE\u201d OF 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n

      World3 said the first serious tremors would hit around 2020. As in:<\/p>\n

      \n

      \u201cMaybe try taking this seriously now?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

      Cue a global pandemic<\/strong>.
      The entire planet went into time-out.<\/p>\n

      Suddenly:<\/p>\n

      All the while, the Doomsday Clock cleared its throat.<\/p>\n

      Shock #1: Delivered on schedule.<\/p>\n

      IV. 2025: THE CLOWN CAR DRIVES ITSELF<\/strong><\/p>\n

      And now we arrive at the present moment, where we are treated to Trump: The Resurrection<\/strong> \u2014 a sequel no one green-lit except the Electoral College and several very confused swing counties.<\/p>\n

      Here is the inconvenient truth:<\/p>\n

      \n

      Many of Trump\u2019s 2025 decisions, while wrapped in his usual slapstick authoritarianism, perfectly align<\/strong> with the worst-case collapse scenario.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

      To be clear:
      He is not intentionally collapsing civilization.
      To be intentional would require reading something longer than a menu.<\/p>\n

      Nevertheless, the checklist:<\/p>\n\n\t\t\tCollapse Factor
      \n\t\t\tMIT Pessimistic Scenario
      \n\t\t\tTrump 2025 Policy
      \n\t\t<\/tr>\n\nEnvironmental protection<\/td>\nRemove safeguards<\/td>\nRemoves safeguards then sues anyone who mentions ecosystems<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nPublic infrastructure<\/td>\nMaintain to prevent systemic stress<\/td>\nPrivatize to the point the word \u201cpublic\u201d is treasonous<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nGlobal cooperation<\/td>\nStrengthen<\/td>\nTariff war now includes allies and pineapples<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nPolitical stability<\/td>\nCritical<\/td>\nGoverns by tantrum and purges<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nWealth distribution<\/td>\nBecome more equitable<\/td>\nBecomes a funnel into Mar-a-Lago<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

      None of this requires a conspiracy.
      Just a lack of impulse control.<\/p>\n

      In short:
      If you wanted to accelerate systemic breakdown, you could hardly do better.<\/strong><\/p>\n

      V. WHAT DOES COLLAPSE LOOK LIKE?<\/strong><\/p>\n

      People picture apocalypse as:<\/p>\n

      Reality is far messier. Collapse is:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Chronic shortages<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Failing infrastructure<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Declining trust<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Corruption as \u201cpolicy innovation\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Increasingly stupid political choices<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Endless fights over everything except the real problems<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Collapse is not an event.
        Collapse is customer service on hold for 20 years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

        And we are listening to the same unbearable music.<\/p>\n

        VI. THE DEPRESSING ACCURACY OF OLD COMPUTERS<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Multiple new studies comparing real-world data to World3 keep finding something unsettling:<\/p>\n

        We are still tracking Business As Usual<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \u00a0\n<\/p>\n

        Industrial output is near peak in several regions<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\n<\/p>\n

        Environmental stress is accelerating<\/p>\n

        \u00a0\n<\/p>\n

        Quality of life is flattening or falling<\/p>\n

        Computers that crash when you hit \u201cprint\u201d were somehow better at forecasting the future than entire governments.<\/p>\n

        Let that sink in.<\/p>\n

        VII. THE OPTIMISM-INDUCING PART (TINY BUT REAL)<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Even the original authors insisted:<\/p>\n

        \n

        Collapse is not inevitable.<\/strong>
        It is a scenario, not a destiny.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

        The \u201cstabilized world\u201d scenario \u2014 the good one \u2014 is still technically possible, requiring:<\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          Massive shifts in consumption<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Strong social safety nets<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Smart resource management<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Cooperation instead of cosplay nationalism<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Politicians who understand cause and effect<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          So\u2026 yes, possible.
          About as possible as teaching cats tax law.
          But possible!<\/p>\n

          If global civilization makes better choices \u2014 soon \u2014 we may dodge the worst outcomes. Even Trump can\u2019t ban hope. (He tried once, but the courts said hope is not a \u201cwoke ideology.\u201d)<\/p>\n

          VIII. THE ENNUI APOCALYPSE: DEATH BY BOREDOM<\/strong><\/p>\n

          In the original post, I cracked that we might all die of ennui<\/strong> by 2040.<\/p>\n

          Little did I know the universe would accept that as a design document.<\/p>\n

          Today:<\/p>\n

          Screens have replaced place<\/strong>.
          And algorithms have replaced attention<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

          The world may not starve.
          It may simply forget how to want anything real<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

          That\u2019s collapse too \u2014 the quiet kind.
          The slow suffocation of meaning.<\/p>\n

          IX. WHERE WE ACTUALLY STAND (SCORECARD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\t\t\tMetric
          \n\t\t\tTrend
          \n\t\t\tCliff Proximity
          \n\t\t<\/tr>\n\nClimate stability<\/td>\nFalling apart<\/td>\n\n

          \t\t\tVery Close<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nGlobal democracy<\/td>\nTeetering<\/td>\n\n

          \t\t\tAlarmingly Close<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nResource security<\/td>\nShrinking<\/td>\n\n

          \t\t\tClose<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nFood systems<\/td>\nStressing<\/td>\n\n

          \t\t\tMaybe Too Close<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nPolitical sanity<\/td>\nRapidly decaying<\/td>\n\n

          \t\t\tThrough the floor<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nBillionaire rocket escapes<\/td>\nIncreasing<\/td>\n\n

          \t\t\tAlready launched<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

          We\u2019re not doomed.
          We\u2019re just stressed, reckless, and badly supervised<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

          Think of civilization as a 17-year-old with car keys.<\/p>\n

          X. SHOULD YOU PANIC?<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Not yet.<\/p>\n

          Panic wastes energy we will need for gardening and artisanal composting later.<\/p>\n

          More useful to ask:<\/p>\n

          \n

          What can we do that doesn\u2019t involve denial, magical thinking, or tweeting memes at each other while the heat index hits 125\u00b0F?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

          We know what helps:<\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            Vote like the ocean is rising (it is)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Support resource-smart policies<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Strengthen institutions instead of trolling them<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Choose cooperation over grievance cosplay<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            Reward leaders who read beyond the table of contents<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            It\u2019s either that, or buy canned beans and a solar-powered Wi-Fi unit for your bunker and hope the marauders are vegan.<\/p>\n

            XI. 2040: THE PROVISIONAL END OF THE WORLD<\/strong><\/p>\n

            2040 is not a calendar appointment (\u201cApocalypse: 3:30 PM\u201d).
            It\u2019s a risk window<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

            A convergence point where:<\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              Environmental limits<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Economic fragility<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Demographic strain<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              Political idiocy<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              \u2026all meet up for the worst family reunion in history.<\/p>\n

              Civilization has survived a lot.
              But it has never attempted all<\/strong> the bad ideas at once.<\/p>\n

              Until now.<\/p>\n

              XII. CONCLUSION: CHEER UP \u2014 THERE\u2019S STILL TIME TO SAVE EVERYTHING<\/strong><\/p>\n

              The 1973 doom model is not laughing at us.
              It is warning us.<\/p>\n

              Humor is how we stay sane during the warning.<\/p>\n

              All we need to avoid the 2040 cliff is:<\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                Competent global leadership<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                A public not addicted to delusion<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                A functioning information ecosystem<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                Respect for science<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                And a shared understanding that planetary survival outranks billionaire whims<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                That\u2019s all.
                Nothing major.<\/p>\n

                If we accomplish that?
                2041 will be delightful.
                We\u2019ll toast the computers and say:<\/p>\n

                \n

                \u201cSorry we doubted you, Grandpa Mainframe.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

                If not?<\/p>\n

                Well\u2026 at least we\u2019ll go down cracking jokes.<\/p>\n

                Because humor is cheaper than therapy.
                And civilization got expensive.<\/p>\n

                NOTES & REFERENCES<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                • \n

                  Limits to Growth (1972\u201374 modeling)<\/strong> \u2014 Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth (1972); and subsequent updates via the Club of Rome.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  2020 data comparisons show continued \u201cBusiness As Usual\u201d trajectory<\/strong> \u2014 G. Herrington, \u201cUpdate to Limits to Growth,\u201d 2020 (Stanford MAHB).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Long-term global risk assessments<\/strong> \u2014 \u201cEarth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and destitution\u201d (2024).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Collapse dynamics & vulnerability research<\/strong> \u2014 \u201cDemographic synchrony increases the vulnerability of human societies to collapse\u201d (2025).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Sustainability vs. overshoot mathematics<\/strong> \u2014 \u201cGlobal Population and Carrying Capacity in the Anthropocene\u201d (2025).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  Historical collapse patterns<\/strong> \u2014 \u201cThe Meaning of Collapse from Past to Present\u201d (2025).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Economics is a philosophy for supplying parasites with an operating system that provides the most efficient means of…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":447109,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-447108","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115719678484482816","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=447108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/447109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=447108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=447108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=447108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}