{"id":452150,"date":"2025-12-17T01:37:15","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T01:37:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/452150\/"},"modified":"2025-12-17T01:37:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T01:37:15","slug":"beware-confirmation-bias-in-u-s-jobs-report-for-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/452150\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware confirmation bias in U.S. jobs report for November"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A restaurant displays a &#8216;hiring&#8217; sign in its window in Manhattan on Dec. 16, 2025, in New York City.<\/p>\n<p>Spencer Platt | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. November jobs report has something for everybody. <\/p>\n<p>Those convinced of weakness will highlight the higher-than-expected unemployment rate as well as the number of jobs shrinking in October. <\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, proponents of a strong economy will focus on jobs growth in November beating estimates, and point out that the increase in the unemployment rate was mostly because the labor force grew, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/16\/jobs-report-november-2025-.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CNBC&#8217;s Jeff Cox noted<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Without any definitive judgment that can be made on the state of the labor market, traders left their bets on interest rate cuts in January mostly unchanged. It&#8217;s currently at 25.5%, around one percentage point higher than before the release of the November jobs report, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CME FedWatch tool<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Today&#8217;s data paints a picture of an economy catching its breath,&#8221; said Gina Bolvin, president at Bolvin Wealth Management Group. &#8220;Job growth is holding on, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing, but not sprinting.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That ambivalence was reflected in markets as well. Major U.S. indexes were mixed: The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.SPX\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.DJI\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/a> fell 0.24% and 0.62% respectively, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.IXIC\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nasdaq Composite<\/a> registered a mild gain of 0.23%, thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/TSLA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tesla<\/a> stock closing at an all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>Whether you&#8217;re a bull or a bear, Tuesday&#8217;s tea leaves will show you what you want to see \u2014 but beware confirmation bias.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"headline0\"\/>What you need to know today<\/p>\n<p><strong>The S&amp;P 500 fell for a third consecutive session. <\/strong>The Dow Jones Industrial Average also retreated Tuesday stateside, but the Nasdaq Composite <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/15\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ticked up<\/a>. Europe&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.STOXX\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stoxx 600<\/a> dropped 0.47% w<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/16\/european-markets-on-decpoint16-stoxx-600-ftse-dax-cac.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ith defense stocks among the biggest losers<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p><strong>U.S. jobs growth beats estimates. <\/strong>Nonfarm payrolls <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/16\/jobs-report-november-2025-.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">increased a seasonally adjusted 64,000<\/a> in November, better than the 45,000 forecast by a Dow Jones estimate. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tesla stock closes at record high. <\/strong>After rising 3.1% on Tuesday, Tesla shares ended the trading session at $489.88, putting it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/16\/tesla-stock-hits-record-on-robotaxi-hype-despite-drop-in-ev-sales.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21% higher for the year<\/a>. Investors were cheering CEO Elon Musk&#8217;s confirmation that the company has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/15\/tesla-tests-driverless-cars-in-austin-without-humans-on-board.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">testing driverless robotaxis<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trump orders blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela. <\/strong>&#8220;The Venezuelan Regime has been designated a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/16\/trump-orders-blockade-of-sanctioned-oil-tankers-leaving-entering-venezuela.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION<\/a>,&#8221; the U.S. president wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday stateside.<\/p>\n<p><strong>[PRO] An eyewear brand as an AI winner? <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/C\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Citibank<\/a> reiterated their &#8220;buy&#8221; rating on this name on Monday, saying that it will be a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/15\/analysts-say-a-luxury-eyewear-giant-could-be-the-next-ai-winner.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leader in the AI glasses market<\/a> \u2014 which will grow more than 100% annually until 2034, the bank added.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"headline1\"\/>And finally&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Candidates prepare to take the written test of public subjects for the 2025 exam for civil servants at Nanjing Forestry University in East China&#8217;s Jiangsu Province, on December 8, 2024. <\/p>\n<p>Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/17\/china-youth-unemployment-civil-service-jobs-economy-slowdown.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Why China&#8217;s young are flocking to government jobs in record numbers<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As many as 3.7 million applicants nationwide, including graduates from the country&#8217;s top universities, sat for China&#8217;s annual civil service exam last month. But only one in about 100 is expected to secure a place among the 38,100 entry-level government roles, starting next year.<\/p>\n<p>Many were willing to take those odds as private job prospects dim amid an economic slump and worsening business sentiment. Unemployment among 16- to 24-year-old urbanites in China\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/data.stats.gov.cn\/easyquery.htm?cn=A01&amp;amp;zb=A0E01&amp;amp;sj=202511\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has stayed above 17% since July<\/a>, compared to<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/LNS14024887\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0around 10%<\/a>\u00a0in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Anniek Bao<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A restaurant displays a &#8216;hiring&#8217; sign in its window in Manhattan on Dec. 16, 2025, in New York&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":452151,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,81,26447,144,8001,79,420,135,143,2578,145,8187,141,67,132,68,7999],"class_list":{"0":"post-452150","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-business-news","10":"tag-citigroup-inc","11":"tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","12":"tag-economic-events","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-jobs","15":"tag-markets","16":"tag-nasdaq-composite","17":"tag-personnel","18":"tag-sp-500-index","19":"tag-stoxx-600","20":"tag-tesla-inc","21":"tag-united-states","22":"tag-unitedstates","23":"tag-us","24":"tag-world-markets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115732351722206462","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=452150"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452150\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/452151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=452150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=452150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=452150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}