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<\/a><\/p>\nSome will point to the loss of Mitch Marner here and we\u2019ll get to him, but that\u2019s not the whole story. Goals with space assisted by Marner featured an extra two feet of separation for Matthews during the 2023-24 season. But 10 of Matthews\u2019 17 goals in space that season featured a primary assist from someone other than Marner \u2014 not to mention Marner was there all of last season when those plays just didn\u2019t materialize as often.<\/p>\n
The two big shifts in structure are fewer goal-line-to-slot plays and fewer high-zone plays. Under Keefe, Matthews scored six goals from the slot from a goal-line pass, five of which came with space. The reason for that is how often he\u2019d play in the high zone and sneak in after, a play that doesn\u2019t transpire much these days with a big focus on getting pucks to the point. Matthews has just two goal-line-to-slot goals under Berube. Matthews also had five goals that came directly from a pass to him in the high zone under Keefe, where he had an average of 17.5 feet of space. He has one goal of that nature under Berube.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s possible Matthews is struggling to find the same space he used to due to lesser foot speed, or because defenses have figured him out. It\u2019s also possible the high-zone play isn\u2019t as effective with lesser shot speed. Without any data on all of Matthews\u2019 shot attempts, it\u2019s also tough to know for sure whether he\u2019s still getting the opportunities and just not burying them. But visually, it sure seems like he\u2019s not getting the same looks he once was. Given all of this, it feels more likely the Leafs are neutering their best weapon\u2019s best weapon by placing him in the wrong spaces.<\/p>\n
Theory 4: He\u2019s being used defensively<\/p>\n
Offensively isn\u2019t the only area where the way Berube is using Matthews should draw scrutiny. It\u2019s also his defensive usage. At five-on-five, only two forwards since 2016-17 have faced tougher opponents relative to the rest of their team than Matthews has this season: Sean Couturier in 2020-21 and Nico Hischier in 2021-22. That makes a massive difference that often goes underappreciated.<\/p>\n
Matthews is no stranger to the shutdown role; his line has played matchup minutes for the last six seasons. But there\u2019s a difference between the 82nd percentile of competition quality he averaged from 2020-21 to 2022-23 and the 91st percentile he was at during the 2023-24 season. And there\u2019s a big difference between that and the 99th percentile difficulty he\u2019s been tasked with this season \u2014 especially when being paired with defensively irresponsible right wingers to do so.<\/p>\n
From 2020-21 to 2022-23, the Leafs allowed 0.05 fewer xGA\/60 with Matthews on the ice for a 2.29 xGA\/60 pace \u2014 both great numbers given the role. Both numbers have steadily climbed as Matthews\u2019 usage began to ramp up to this year\u2019s conclusion: the Leafs give up 0.27 more xGA\/60 with Matthews on the ice for a 3.07 xGA\/60 pace. Both are career lows.<\/p>\n
That hasn\u2019t affected the Leafs on the scoresheet yet \u2014 they don\u2019t allow a lot of goals with Matthews on the ice \u2014 but is this really the best use of Matthews\u2019 ability? Does it really make sense to bury their captain defensively like he\u2019s Couturier? It\u2019s especially fair to wonder when the Leafs are giving up so many chances in Matthews\u2019 minutes to begin with.<\/p>\n
Whatever Matthews adds defensively by sheltering the rest of the team from that usage can\u2019t be worth the offensive dropoff that\u2019s usually attached to that burden. What made Matthews so effective in the past was that his defensive play was a bonus on top of being one of the game\u2019s strongest offensive players. Right now, his defensive game is being treated as the focal point.<\/p>\n
At the same time, as difficult as his usage has been, it is something he\u2019s handled better in the past. Even if it\u2019s ramped up, usage alone doesn\u2019t explain Matthews being less effective to this degree. Accounting for it brings Matthews\u2019 Net Rating per 82 from plus-10 to plus-12; in the previous six seasons, he averaged plus-28 and was never under plus-22.<\/p>\n
Unless there\u2019s a breaking point at the current extreme Matthews is at where more offense is being sacrificed than measured, usage is probably only a small chunk of the pie. So the difference between Matthews being an ordinary first-liner and one of the five best players in the world likely falls elsewhere.<\/p>\n
Theory 5: He misses Marner<\/p>\n
Intertwined with Theories 3 and 4 is the Marner of it all.<\/p>\n
One reason star players work better in pairs is gravity \u2014 the defensive orbit from other teams is shared, creating space for both to work their magic. Marner, one of the league\u2019s most gifted players at creating space, no longer being available puts more defensive emphasis on Matthews. That\u2019s something we already noted with the average space Matthews had per pass in 2023-24. But it\u2019s especially true this season where Matthews has often been split from William Nylander; as good as Matthew Knies can be, he doesn\u2019t have the required gravitational pull.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a similar concept on defense, where Marner and Matthews shared a heavy burden. Nylander, a notoriously poor defensive player, isn\u2019t ideal in that role; the Leafs opting often for Domi instead is even worse. That\u2019s taxing for Matthews as one of the team\u2019s few defensive stalwarts, a significant responsibility his superstar peers don\u2019t really have to deal with. The more he has to do defensively (with minimal help), the less he can really do on offense.<\/p>\n
Matthews and Marner fed off each other well at both ends of the ice, playing together a ton in their first nine seasons in the league. Over their final five seasons together, they both finished in the top 10 in NHL scoring, with Marner sitting seventh and Matthews eighth. They were also both Selke finalists during that time.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just Matthews missing Marner \u2014 it goes the other way, too. Marner is on pace for his least productive offensive season since 2017-18, and while he\u2019s been strong defensively, it should be noted he\u2019s in a secondary role matchups-wise behind Jack Eichel. Matthews-Marner created a strong on-ice bond that\u2019s hard to untangle.<\/p>\n
While there is data that shows Matthews remained productive at even strength whether he was on a line with Marner or other wingers, what\u2019s indisputable is that he now misses Marner\u2019s presence in one key area: the power play.<\/p>\n
Matthews has always been a prolific even-strength scorer, but over the past five seasons, 28 percent of his goals and points have come on the man advantage. With the Leafs\u2019 power play currently a total disaster this season \u2014 sitting tied for last at 14\u00a0percent \u2014 Matthews\u2019 point totals there have cratered dramatically.<\/p>\n
He currently has just four power-play points all season, which projects to 12 on the season, or a drop of more than 40 percent from what he had typically produced in an 82-game season during his peak years. Up to half of Matthews\u2019 missing production overall, in other words, could be solely due to Toronto\u2019s struggles on the man advantage.<\/p>\n
Matthews is, of course, contributing to those issues by being a focal point of the top PP unit and not producing, but that stat also suggests it\u2019s possible a systemic turnaround of the team\u2019s power play would significantly boost his overall offensive totals.<\/p>\n
That may be possible by actually treating Matthews like a focal point of the unit. Over the previous four years, Matthews earned 26 percent of Toronto\u2019s power play expected goals while he was on the ice. This year that\u2019s down to 19 percent. Matthews\u2019 brief shift to the point, a spot occupied by Marner last season, was especially baffling.<\/p>\n
On the whole, Marner\u2019s absence definitely plays a role in Matthews\u2019 decline. His job is harder on offense and defense without him and there\u2019s even less space in a space-less system without Marner\u2019s gravitational pull aiding Matthews. But to place all of Matthews\u2019 decline on Marner\u2019s absence would be far too reductive given the myriad other factors at play.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s truth and fiction to all five theories here, so it\u2019s just a matter of figuring out just how much truth each one holds. The mystery of Matthews\u2019 decline is that it seems to be an entire toxic cocktail that has tanked his effectiveness all at once. Part injury, part decline, part system, part usage, part Marner.<\/p>\n
Maybe some parts hold more weight, and it\u2019s impossible to know for sure which one has been the most damaging. The more important matter is whether or not it can be fixed, something that\u2019s harder to do when there\u2019s so many things affecting Matthews.<\/p>\n
A new coach can plausibly fix the system and Matthews\u2019 usage, but it doesn\u2019t help if he\u2019s injured, less effective due to age and doesn\u2019t have an elite weapon next to him. Even if time off might be able to help Matthews get healthy, he still may never be the same elite player again and will still be playing without Marner.<\/p>\n
Help by his side would be significant, but it may not matter if Matthews is a slower player with a less lethal shot and still being asked to play against his strengths in heavy defensive minutes with weak two-way linemates.<\/p>\n
What we do know is that trying something to fix Matthews is better than what the Leafs are currently doing about it: nothing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The numbers are almost too low to be believed. Auston Matthews, the NHL\u2019s leading goal scorer since he…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":464624,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[293,62,1304,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-464623","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-nhl","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-toronto-maple-leafs","11":"tag-united-states","12":"tag-unitedstates","13":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115763975129059632","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=464623"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/464623\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/464624"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=464623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=464623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=464623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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