DAKAR, Senegal — Voters in Guinea will head to the polls on Sunday for the West African nation’s first presidential election since the military took power in a 2021 coup, with analysts predicting a likely win for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya.<\/p>\n
Guinea is one of 10 African countries<\/a> where soldiers have seized power since 2020<\/a>, with some going on to win elections after delaying a return to democracy. <\/p>\n Since ousting President Alpha Cond\u00e9<\/a> four years ago, Gen. Doumbouya has clamped down on the main opposition and dissent, critics say, leaving him with no strong challenge to win a seven-year term in Sunday’s election.<\/p>\n Despite its rich mineral resources \u2014 including as the world\u2019s biggest exporter of bauxite<\/a>, used to make aluminum \u2014 over half of Guinea’s 15 million people are experiencing \u201cunprecedented levels of poverty and food insecurity,\u201d according to the World Food Program.<\/p>\n About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots at roughly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. There will be a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.<\/p>\n The West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS has deployed an election observation mission ahead of the vote.<\/p>\n Nine candidates are running, and Doumbouya\u2019s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Bald\u00e9 of the Democratic Front of Guinea party, who was education minister under Cond\u00e9 and who has promised governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth.<\/p>\n Two opposition candidates, former prime minister Lansana Kouyat\u00e9 and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds while longtime opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile. <\/p>\n In the capital, Conakry, there are mixed feelings about whether the election will reflect the voters’ wishes. <\/p>\n It will be held under a new constitution that revoked a ban on military leaders running for office and extended the presidential mandate from five to seven years. That constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a September referendum<\/a> that opposition parties called for voters to boycott.<\/p>\n There is little hope that the vote will truly mark a return to electoral democracy, said Alioune Tine, founder of Afrikajom Center, a West African political think tank.<\/p>\n \u201cIt’s an election without the main opposition leaders and that is taking place in a context where civic space is heavily restricted,\u201d Tine said. \u201cThe vote is mostly designed to legitimize Doumbouya\u2019s grip on power.”<\/p>\n Mamadou Bhoye Diallo, a restaurant owner in Conakry, said he won\u2019t vote and called the election a \u201cfarce.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWhen a candidate is also the referee, can we expect a miracle?\u201d Diallo wondered. \u201cMajor parties are sidelined and their leaders are in exile. You call that an election?\u201d he added.<\/p>\n