{"id":482667,"date":"2025-12-31T15:38:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T15:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/482667\/"},"modified":"2025-12-31T15:38:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T15:38:11","slug":"5-themes-that-defined-business-and-markets-in-2025-morning-squawk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/482667\/","title":{"rendered":"5 themes that defined business and markets in 2025: Morning Squawk"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter.\u00a0Subscribe here<\/a>\u00a0to receive future editions in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Happy Wednesday and New Year’s Eve. I’ve decided that there are three main groups of holiday observers this year: Those going to parties or watching the Times Square ball drop at home; those doing late-night workout classes or races; and those going to AMC<\/a> viewings of the “Stranger Things” finale.<\/a><\/p>\n

This newsletter normally walks you through five things to know before the market opens. Today, that list would include Federal Reserve minutes<\/a> that showed a divisive December meeting, and new details about SoftBank’s investment in OpenAI.<\/a><\/p>\n

But as 2025 comes to an end, we’re taking a step back to instead look at five of the biggest trends that shaped Wall Street, Main Street and Silicon Valley this year.<\/p>\n

Here are five themes for investors to consider as they finish out 2025.<\/p>\n

1. The stock market that defied gravity<\/p>\n

A trader reacts on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., August 22, 2025. <\/p>\n

Brendan McDermid | Reuters<\/p>\n

It was another good year for investors.<\/p>\n

Major market indexes surged to all-time highs, and the three major averages are on track for their third straight positive year. But it’s been a bumpy ride: The S&P 500<\/a> briefly tumbled into bear market territory<\/a> in April after President Donald Trump unveiled his tariff plan<\/a>, some of which he later walked back<\/a>. The market also scaled walls of worry around artificial intelligence spending and lingering inflation.<\/p>\n

Retail investors had a gangbuster year<\/a> after buying the post-tariff announcement dip, and they’ve shown an appetite for buzzy tech names<\/a> such as Palantir<\/a> and Nvidia<\/a>. Wall Street, meanwhile, is optimistic that stocks will climb even higher<\/a> in the new year.<\/p>\n

Precious metals and crypto have also hit new highs this year. Here’s where the different investment classes stand for 2025, with one trading session remaining:<\/p>\n

2. Trade offs<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump holds a chart as he announces a plan for tariffs on imported goods during an event April 2, 2025, in the Rose Garden at the White House. <\/p>\n

Demetrius Freeman\/The Washington Post via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Following Trump’s return to the White House in January, new tariffs on U.S. trading partners set the agenda for investors and business leaders.<\/p>\n

Companies raced to adjust supply chains<\/a> ahead of Trump’s broad and steep tariffs on imports from most foreign countries. Some businesses tried to curry<\/a> favor<\/a> in Washington, D.C., \u2014 to mixed<\/a> reviews<\/a> \u2014 in a bid to avoid facing the harshest duties. Meanwhile, economists worried that the levies could reignite inflationary pressures<\/a> and lead to higher prices <\/a>for consumers, while small businesses said that they can’t absorb cost increases<\/a> like larger firms can.<\/p>\n

But the fate of Trump’s trade policy now hangs in the balance, as the world waits for the Supreme Court’s decision<\/a> on whether the new tariffs are legal. White House officials have said there are other ways<\/a> to implement the vast duties, even if the nation’s highest court rules against the president.<\/p>\n

3. The great AI race<\/p>\n

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2025, showcasing the company’s latest innovations in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, on January 6, 2025.<\/p>\n

Artur Widak | Anadolu | Getty Images<\/p>\n

We can’t tell the story of 2025 without the influence of artificial intelligence companies and their technology.<\/p>\n

AI titans including Nvidia and OpenAI struck multibillion-dollar deals<\/a> with companies focused on hardware and data centers \u2014 and even with each other<\/a> \u2014 as they raced to meet booming demand. AI once again captured the imagination of Wall Street, prompting investors to jump into stocks tied to the trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But the sector also picked up its fair share of skeptics. Chief among critics’ concerns: an AI bubble<\/a> that could pop. Such an event would mark a paradigm shift for a stock market and U.S. economy increasingly reliant<\/a> on spending tied to AI.<\/p>\n

Get Morning Squawk directly in your inbox4. Fedfluence<\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump speaks with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell (R) as he visits the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on July 24, 2025.<\/p>\n

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve and its policymakers took center stage in 2025, as Trump waged a pressure campaign on the central bank to lower interest rates. The Fed cut interest rates three times this year<\/a>, bringing the key overnight borrowing rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Still, the president called for more.<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump has said he’d “love to fire”<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell, which would be an unprecedented and \u2014 as the Supreme Court indicated<\/a> \u2014 legally dubious move. He went even further in August, when he attempted to fire<\/a> Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court has allowed Cook to remain in her position<\/a> while she challenges the firing.<\/p>\n

Some Fed watchers worry that Trump could get the Fed influence he wants in 2026: Powell’s term as chair ends in May, and Trump will have the chance to nominate his pick<\/a> for the central bank’s next leader. There’s significant disagreement<\/a> among voting members on the path forward for interest rates as the Fed contends with a stalling labor market and lingering inflation. Its next chair could be a decisive vote<\/a>.<\/p>\n

5. Mixed economic signals<\/p>\n

Job seekers attend a career fair in Harlem hosted by Assemblymember Jordan Wright on Dec. 10, 2025, in New York City.<\/p>\n

Spencer Platt | Getty Images<\/p>\n

When it came to the U.S. consumer in 2025, one letter told the story. The “K”-shaped economy<\/a> became the go-to descriptor for an economic environment in which the best-off consumers are splashing out<\/a>, while lower-earners buckle<\/a> under higher costs.<\/p>\n

An ode to how the two ends of the economic spectrum diverged in opposite directions, the “K”-shaped economy helps explain, for example, why airlines rushed to build out premium offerings<\/a> at the same time that fast-food chains pushed value-focused<\/a> menu items.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the “low hire, low fire”<\/a> job market became increasingly hard to ignore. Recent college grads<\/a> in particular felt the pinch, and economic policymakers<\/a> fretted about slowing labor growth. That contributed to a year of bad vibes<\/a> for the economy, with everyday Americans reporting some of the lowest levels <\/a>of consumer sentiment <\/a>on record. A historically long government shutdown<\/a> didn’t help, either.<\/p>\n

The Daily Dividend<\/p>\n

In honor of year-end, we thought it’d be fun to highlight some of the punniest sub-headlines from this year’s newsletters. If we missed one that left you particularly amused, I’d love to hear which it was via email at alex.harring@versantmedia.com. Here were some of our favorites:<\/p>\n

Special thanks to CNBC’s Sara Salinas, Jacob Pramuk and Michele Luhn, who authored Morning Squawk until this fall. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter.\u00a0Subscribe here\u00a0to receive future editions in your inbox. Happy Wednesday and New Year’s…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":482668,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[82395,8188,64,81,69,144,3748,79,100676,3346,135,143,147,26768,36598,145,211423,141,20674,67,132,68,108600],"class_list":{"0":"post-482667","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc","9":"tag-bitcoin-usd-coinbase","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-business-news","12":"tag-donald-trump","13":"tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","14":"tag-dxy-us-dollar-currency-index","15":"tag-economy","16":"tag-gold-comex-dec25","17":"tag-investment-strategy","18":"tag-markets","19":"tag-nasdaq-composite","20":"tag-nvidia-corp","21":"tag-palantir-technologies-inc","22":"tag-russell-2000-index","23":"tag-sp-500-index","24":"tag-silver-comex-sep25","25":"tag-tesla-inc","26":"tag-u-s-10-year-treasury","27":"tag-united-states","28":"tag-unitedstates","29":"tag-us","30":"tag-wti-crude-sep25"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115814931216462056","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/482667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=482667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/482667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/482668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=482667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=482667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=482667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}