{"id":487491,"date":"2026-01-02T16:43:10","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T16:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/487491\/"},"modified":"2026-01-02T16:43:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T16:43:10","slug":"2026-nfl-draft-order-detroit-lions-possible-first-round-pick-slot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/487491\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NFL Draft order: Detroit Lions\u2019 possible first-round pick slot"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">With one game remaining in the 2025 Detroit Lions\u2019 season, it\u2019s time to start thinking about the 2026 NFL Draft. The Lions are likely to have more roster holes than they\u2019d like, and in order to maintain a competitive roster for the foreseeable future, general manager Brad Holmes will need to have a strong 2026 draft class.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Entering Week 18, the Lions currently hold the No. 15 overall pick in the draft. However, that pick could theoretically move up or down a significant amount of spots based on the results of the final week of the season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Let\u2019s take a look at the current 2026 NFL Draft order, and where the Lions can land.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Before we get into it, one important thing to know about draft order. Unlike playoff tiebreakers, the primary tiebreaker for draft order is strength of overall schedule. If there is a tie in overall record, the team with the easier schedule gets the higher draft pick. Things like head-to-head, conference record, common games, etc. only matter if there is a tie in strength of schedule. (<a href=\"https:\/\/operations.nfl.com\/journey-to-the-nfl\/the-nfl-draft\/the-rules-of-the-draft\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Full tiebreaker explainer here<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I\u2019m going to skip over the top-10 in draft order, because that is unreachable for the Lions. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tankathon.com\/nfl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">If you want to see the top-10 draft order, check out Tankathon here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>2026 NFL Draft order before Week 18<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">11. Dolphins: 7-9 (.485 strength of schedule)<br \/>12. Falcons*: 7-9 (.496)<br \/>13. Buccaneers: 7-9 (.533)<br \/>14. Cowboys: 7-8-1 (.436)<br \/><strong>15. Lions: 8-8 (.491)<\/strong><br \/>16. Ravens: 8-8 (.502)<br \/>17. Vikings: 8-8 (.517)<br \/>18. Colts**: 8-8 (.537)<br \/>19. Panthers: 8-8 (.522)<br \/>20. Steelers: 9-7 (.509)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">* The Falcons\u2019 pick is owned by the Rams<br \/>** The Colts\u2019 pick is owned by the Jets<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Even though the Lions can finish with the same or better record than all teams listed here, Detroit cannot fall any lower than 18th in draft order. That\u2019s because the last two teams listed here\u2014Panthers and Steelers\u2014are both in playoff positions. Both could miss the playoffs and be replaced by the Buccaneers and Ravens, but if a team makes the playoffs, their draft order will depend on how far they get into the playoffs. In short, the 18 teams that miss the playoffs will represent the top-18 teams in the NFL Draft order, even if a team in the playoffs finishes with the same or a worse record.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Detroit could fall all the way to that 18th spot, but it feels pretty unlikely. In order for that to happen, the following outcomes would have to occur:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"duet--article--unordered-list _1nfb3k4i feuejx0 ls9zuh1\">\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Lions over Bears<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Steelers over Ravens<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Packers over Vikings<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Texans over Colts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nfl-playoff-picture\/2025\/lions\/#details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Per the New York Times, that has just a 4% chance of happening.<\/a> For what it\u2019s worth, the Vikings are favored by 7.5, the Texans are favored by 10.5, the Ravens are favored by 3.5, and the Bears are favored by 3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">As for the 11th pick, that is even more unlikely for the Lions. Here are the following outcomes that would need to happen, with the Vegas odds of each game listed:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"duet--article--unordered-list _1nfb3k4i feuejx0 ls9zuh1\">\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Dolphins (+10.5) over Patriots<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Falcons (-3) over Saints<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Buccaneers (-3) over Panthers<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Cowboys (-3.5) over Giants<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Bears (-3) over Lions<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">Strength of schedule would also have to tip in Lions\u2019 favor over Dolphins<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The New York Times puts that at &lt;1% chance of happening. In fact, they put the Lions\u2019 chances at earning the 12 seed\u2014with three of the first four above outcomes happening\u2014also at &lt;1% chance of happening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Instead, they believe the most likely landing spots for the Lions\u2019 first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to be either the 13th pick (23%) or the 14th pick (25%).<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Here\u2019s their full breakdown of odds for each pick:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"duet--article--unordered-list _1nfb3k4i feuejx0 ls9zuh1\">\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">11th: &lt;1%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">12th: &lt;1%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">13th: 23%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">14th: 25%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">15th: 10%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">16th: 19%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">17th: 18%<\/li>\n<li class=\"feuejx1\">18th: 4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With one game remaining in the 2025 Detroit Lions\u2019 season, it\u2019s time to start thinking about the 2026&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":487492,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[50284,27705,1232,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-487491","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-detroit-lions-draft","9":"tag-detroit-lions-news","10":"tag-nfl","11":"tag-sports","12":"tag-united-states","13":"tag-unitedstates","14":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115826511340078035","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/487491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=487491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/487491\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/487492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=487491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=487491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=487491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}