Call it a river cities rivalry.<\/p>\n
Fort Worth and Austin appear locked in a constant, flowing battle over which city has more residents. Cowtown roped in the title of Texas\u2019 fourth largest city \u2014 and the nation\u2019s 11th largest \u2014 in May when its population surpassed the 1 million mark, dethroning the state\u2019s capital.<\/p>\n
But new 2026 state population estimates<\/a> show Austin reclaimed its No. 4 ranking with a population that now exceeds Fort Worth by about 34,000 residents.<\/p>\n Data from the Texas Demographic Center shows that Fort Worth\u2019s population reached 1,020,987 in 2025 while Austin pulled ahead slightly with 1,054,007 residents, according to estimates from the center released in January. The state office revised Austin\u2019s 2025 population from the official U.S. census estimate of 993,588 to 1,033,097.<\/p>\n Xiuhong \u201cHelen\u201d You, interim director of the Texas Demographic Center, said Austin officials complained that the city was undercounted in the 2025 census data.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re still showing higher growth for Austin,\u201d she told the Fort Worth Report.<\/p>\n You said the center is examining the discrepancy between the census and state demographic data. Revisions could be made in the center\u2019s next population estimate if that data shows errors.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ll look at the data and determine if we missed something,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Fort Worth\u2019s milestone<\/a> last year made it the nation\u2019s 11th largest city \u2014 a designation that city leaders capitalized on to attract business growth to North Texas. Some business and government leaders have even referred to Fort Worth as the nation\u2019s 10th largest city since there was a scant 2,000-resident gap between Cowtown and Jacksonville, Florida, the official No. 10 city based on U.S. census data.<\/p>\n Fort Worth keeps attracting millions of visitors to the city, regardless of its official population, said Alex Catterton, director of content and public relations at Visit Fort Worth, the city\u2019s tourism organization.<\/p>\n \u201cFort Worth\u2019s visitor economy has doubled over the past decade to nearly 12 million visitors a year and more than 30,000 hospitality jobs,\u201d Catterton said in a statement. \u201cThe incredible investments in the Stockyards, Fort Worth Zoo, Dickies Arena and hotels means a bright future ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n When it comes to acreage, Fort Worth encompasses more space than its Central Texas rival on the Colorado River.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fort Worth, linked to Dallas via the winding Trinity River, has about 359 square miles compared to Austin\u2019s 320 square miles, census data shows.<\/p>\n Texas\u2019 demographic data shows that Fort Worth grew faster than Austin \u2014 11.1% compared to 9.6% \u2014 from 2020 to 2025.<\/p>\n However, a population forecast for the next 10 years<\/a> indicates that both cities will grow at about the same pace with Austin in the lead, according to Aterio.io<\/a>, a predictive data analytics firm that uses AI.<\/p>\n In 2030, Austin is expected to reach 1,089,146 residents while Fort Worth\u2019s population could grow to 1,079,737 residents, Aterio data shows.<\/p>\n By 2035, Austin could have 1,153,296 residents while Fort Worth could reach 1,136,768 people, the forecast shows.<\/p>\n The state\u2019s top three cities \u2014 Houston, San Antonio and Dallas \u2014 are expected to keep growing but to maintain their respective rankings. Houston could reach 2.6 million residents by 2035, followed by San Antonio with 1.7 million people and Dallas with a population of 1.4 million, Aterio\u2019s forecast shows.<\/p>\n Eric E. Garcia is senior business reporter at the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at eric.garcia@fortworthreport.org<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n