While Republicans have poured millions into seeking the seat, the runoff is largely ceremonial. The Legislature doesn\u2019t return to session until 2027, and candidates must immediately seek reelection in November. Political analysts believe the winner could gauge a nationwide political temperature that will affect midterm results in November.<\/p>\n
Early voting for the runoff opens next week on Jan. 21 and runs six days<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Senate District 9 runoff election was triggered after no candidate won more than 50% of the vote<\/a> in the Nov. 4 election. In that race, Rehmet came about 3,000 votes shy of an outright win, as Wambsganss split the GOP vote with a third opponent.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Democrat\u2019s near-win in November is a telling indicator for Texas and the nation, said Keith Gaddie, a political professor at Texas Christian University.\u00a0<\/p>\n Such a gain in Tarrant County, which is commonly regarded as one of the nation\u2019s largest Republican counties, does not bode well for the GOP this November and beyond, Gaddie said.<\/p>\n He said Democrats hope Tarrant\u2019s changing demographics with its fast-growth and urbanization \u2014 coupled with what they see as a fracturing Republican Party and national unrest over President Donald Trump\u2019s handling of the economy, immigration and international relations \u2014 could tip the county in their favor.<\/p>\n \u201cWhoever wins will declare that it\u2019s a bellwether, and they will declare they\u2019ve got a mandate,\u201d Gaddie said. \u201cBut, irrespective of who wins this runoff, if I were the Republicans, I\u2019d be looking at what\u2019s happened in Tarrant County, and I\u2019d be worried.\u201d<\/p>\n The Texas Senate District 9 seat has been red since 1991. It became vacant in June when former Sen. Kelly Hancock<\/a> resigned to become acting state comptroller<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The winner on Jan. 31 will serve the remainder of Hancock\u2019s term, which runs through the end of the year. Candidates have already filed for a prospective rematch in the March primaries.<\/p>\n What is the makeup of the Texas Senate?<\/p>\n The 31-member Texas Senate has 20 Republican seats and 11 Democratic seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n Texas state senators serve 2-by-4-by-4-year terms, where senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade.\u00a0<\/p>\n Across the state, 16 Senate seats are on the ballot in November.<\/p>\n Five Republican incumbents, including Hancock, have or will step down from their seats, leaving them open.<\/p>\n Democrats would need to gain five new seats to flip the Senate, which Republicans have controlled since 1996.<\/p>\n The platforms, budgets<\/p>\n Wambsganss describes herself as \u201cultra-MAGA\u201d and touts her far-right endorsements from President Trump, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Tarrant County Judge Tim O\u2019Hare and others. Her campaign has focused on<\/a> securing the border, supporting Texas\u2019 oil industry, defending gun rights and lowering property taxes through the homestead exemption.<\/p>\n Local conservative groups supporting her campaign include True Texas Project<\/a> and Mercy Culture\u2019s For Liberty and Justice<\/a> political nonprofit, which has recently expanded to advance Christian Nationalist<\/a> causes nationally.\u00a0<\/p>\n Wambsganss told the Report that she conducted her fall campaign like a party primary election, as she had another GOP candidate to differentiate herself from. With the race narrowed, she said she\u2019s focused on winning against Rehmet, who she believes to be \u201cout of step with the conservative majority\u201d of Senate District 9.\u00a0<\/p>\n Addressing Tarrant County Republicans during a Jan. 8 local GOP executive committee meeting, Wambsganss emphasized the importance of her victory for the Republican Party. If Rehmet wins, Democrats will \u201cfly\u201d into Texas and challenge every GOP judge and politician in the state, she said.<\/p>\n \u201cThis election is being called the canary in the coal mine because Democrats across the nation are watching this race,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Rehmet has campaigned on fueling affordable housing initiatives, expanding workers\u2019 rights, supporting fellow veterans and lowering property taxes for working families.\u00a0<\/p>\n He garnered endorsements from several state Democratic senators and representatives including Rep. Chris Turner and Sen. Wendy Davis, progressive Fort Worth City Council members and Tarrant County commissioners, as well as from groups including VoteVets<\/a>, Texas Young Democrats<\/a> and IAM Union<\/a>.<\/p>\n Rehmet said his campaign hasn\u2019t changed since November. His priorities have not shifted but \u201chave sharpened\u201d as he\u2019s learned how financially squeezed people are, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve talked with parents who are doing everything right and still can\u2019t catch up on groceries. Seniors who are choosing between medicine and keeping the lights on,\u201d he said. \u201cYoung families are wondering if Texas is still a place they can build a future.\u201d<\/p>\n Both candidates declined to participate in a forum with the Fort Worth Report. They both said they have not met nor interacted, and Wambsganss added that she maintains a \u201cvery full schedule of public events and block walking.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Gaddie, the political professor, said candidates\u2019 declining forums and debates are a sign of the times. Recent years have seen a trend of smaller, more skewed audiences attending debates, and candidates rarely directly answer the questions they are asked, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s all sound bite, throw-in and gotcha games,\u201d he said. \u201cThey see their time and effort better spent raising money or on the doors.\u201d<\/p>\n In the lead-up to the November election<\/a>, Rehmet ran a relatively small-budget, grassroots campaign. He said he remains almost entirely funded by small, individual donations. Before November, he saw a few contributions of $10,000 from local unions.\u00a0<\/p>\n His two GOP opponents outspent him by over a million dollars<\/a>. Wambsganss received multiple donations of $300,000 to $450,000 from the Texas Senate Leadership Fund<\/a>, a PAC launched by Patrick<\/a> and Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC<\/a>, a committee started by Republican Texas oil tycoons Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks.\u00a0<\/p>\n Campaign finance reports have not yet been released for fundraising conducted since the November election.<\/p>\n Who could win the runoff?<\/p>\n The runoff results will largely depend on candidates\u2019 ability to mobilize voters, although statistically, Rehmet has the upper hand, said Gaddie, who has published studies on the science of runoff elections.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you get a candidate that breaks 40% and leads by 10-percentage points (in the initial election), there\u2019s a 19 in 20 chance they\u2019re gonna win the runoff,\u201d he said. \u201cRehmet met both of these criteria \u2014 48% of the vote, and he led by 12 points.\u201d<\/p>\n The crunch point is a candidate\u2019s ability to mobilize voters, which could prove difficult, he said. Tarrant County runoffs typically see about 20,000 fewer voters than the main election, and elections are very rarely held in January, he said.<\/p>\n Additionally, the runoff Election Day is on a Saturday, he noted. On one hand, many people are off from work, but weekends are also often filled with activities and commitments, he said.<\/p>\n Wambsganss said her campaign has an \u201cexpansive plan\u201d to rally conservatives to the polls.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe liberals believe they can use a low turnout election to steal this seat from the Republicans,\u201d she said. \u201cMy focus is on turning out the conservative majority and maintaining the sort of representation this district expects in the Texas Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n Rehmet said his focus is to show residents their vote can bring change, and he believes that they will show up to the polls when they see that, even in a traditionally low-turnout election.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve stayed focused on direct engagement since November because the issues facing working families didn\u2019t take a break after Election Day,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Ultimately, Gaddie said, the election pits Rehmets\u2019 organizing of progressive and union groups against Wambsganss\u2019 high-budget mobilization of passionate Republican and Christian Nationalist coalitions.\u00a0<\/p>\n If Rehmet\u2019s strategy wins out, it could signal a change of tide in Texas that foreshadows a coming blue wave, Gaddie said.<\/p>\n \u201cAs Tarrant County goes, so goes Texas,\u201d Gaddie said, quoting Steve Bannon, Trump\u2019s former political strategist, GOP influencer and supporter of Wambsganss<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAs Texas goes,\u201d Gaddie added, \u201cSo goes the world.\u201d<\/p>\n Drew Shaw is a government accountability reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org<\/a> or @shawlings601<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/260108_Tarrant-GOP-1--1024x683.jpg\")
Leigh Wambsganss speaks to Republicans at a Tarrant County GOP executive committee meeting on Jan. 8, 2026, in Fort Worth. (Drew Shaw | Fort Worth Report)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Rehmet-768x1024.jpg\")
Taylor Rehmet speaks with potential voters at a political event. (Courtesy photo | Taylor for Texas Campaign)<\/p>\n