{"id":518837,"date":"2026-01-15T21:35:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T21:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/518837\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T21:35:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T21:35:13","slug":"picks-and-predictions-from-melbourne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/518837\/","title":{"rendered":"Picks and Predictions From Melbourne"},"content":{"rendered":"

The first week of the season was men\u2019s tennis cast in miniature. In fact, it illuminated wealth inequality more broadly. The billionaire class\u2014Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner\u2014flew to a lavish exhibition. They batted around balls, smiling throughout. They collected seven-figure checks. And then they shared a private plane to Melbourne.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Why deign to play regular tournaments against regular opponents\u2014and fly commercial\u2014when you don\u2019t have to? When you can hang out in private enclaves? Let the rank and file interrupt holidays to scavenge for, you know, ranking points, prize money and form.<\/p>\n

Then again, in this case, the gilded class has earned this right. Sinner. Alcaraz. Alcaraz. Sinner. One or the other has won each of the past eight majors. And the gap between No. 3 and No. 2 is wider than the gap between No. 3 and you and me.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is this the event where the proletariat rises up? We shall see. But first, our men\u2019s seed report \u2026<\/p>\n

The top 16<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Carlos Alcaraz<\/strong><\/p>\n

With a new coaching setup, Alcaraz heads to the lone major he\u2019s never won amid swirls of uncertainty. The fact that he was the winner of the previous hard-court major? That ought to be a source of comfort and inspiration. And he ought to be rested, having played no warmup. But will it be strange for him to be at a crucial juncture of a match, look to the stands and \u2026 not see the figure he has long called his surrogate father<\/a>?<\/p>\n

2. Jannik Sinner<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not only is he the double defending champion, but his strong finish in Turin augurs well. The hot and humid conditions\u2014not the player on the other side of the net\u2014might be his biggest concern. And, while a year ago he told us 2025 was coach Darren Cahill\u2019s last season, Cahill reassures us he\u2019ll be back in the box this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

3. Alexander Zverev<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the plus side: Zverev reached the finals in Melbourne in 2025. On the other hand, he not only lost that match but also lost his way in the months that followed. He has so much game, and a dangerous backhand in particular. But there\u2019s a hard-to-shake feeling that the window is closing fast on that elusive major. To his credit, he doesn\u2019t use it as an excuse\u2014but an added complication is his diabetes, in the face of oppressive heat and humidity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

4. Novak Djokovic<\/strong><\/p>\n

Djokovic has had a touch of success Down Under throughout his career (10 titles, to be precise). He\u2019s also reached the semifinals at four consecutive majors, including this one. The overarching question: At 38, can he compete with Alcaraz and Sinner in best-of-five matches? He can beat anyone on a given day, but will need some help from the draw because he can\u2019t win both in succession as he rages against the dying of the light, tries to beat back the tide \u2026 all those other clich\u00e9s we are sure to hear.\u00a0<\/p>\n

5. Lorenzo Musetti<\/strong><\/p>\n

Congrats to Musetti on breaching the top five. He has lots of flair and flourish, but you worry about the conditions, as well as his nerves, in a tight match. He won zero titles in 2025 and has a career sub-.500 record Down Under.<\/p>\n

6. Alex de Minaur<\/strong><\/p>\n

The <\/strong>great Aussie hope is, alas, as predictable as he is admirable. He\u2019ll get to the second week, then compete gamely, but fall to a player with slightly more gears and\/or wattage. He enters the Australian Open with a new fitness coach<\/a> and, one hopes, physicality.<\/p>\n

7. F\u00e9lix Auger-Aliassime<\/strong><\/p>\n

Like Spirit Halloween, he emerged in the fall. He\u2019ll try to continue riding his hot streak, which includes a U.S. Open semifinal showing, a torrid autumn and an unexpected foray into the top five. The game is there, the physicality is there, and the subject expertise (i.e., hard-court tennis) is there. This will be a good test of whether 2025 is the new normal or a happy outlier.\u00a0<\/p>\n

8. Ben Shelton<\/strong><\/p>\n

Shelton is the highest-ranked American heading into Australia. The salon is getting impatient, but we\u2019re still all-in on Shelton. He\u2019s playing with less empty-the-clip eagerness and more patience and nuance. At the last big outdoor hard-court event he entered healthy (Canada 2025), he won. And he remains one of the sport\u2019s more intense and reliable competitors.<\/p>\n

9. Taylor Fritz<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fritz\u2019s 2025 was a minor disappointment and a bit of career stagnation\u2014credit to him for remaining entrenched in the top 10. But Fritz is very much a player in need of a strong major, and a lingering knee injury is a concern. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pause to note that Jack Draper\u2014after a blazing start to 2025\u2014is still injured.<\/p>\n

10. Alexander Bublik<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, he\u2019s now a top-10 player. The seeded wild card brings his vanishing-and-reappearing act to Melbourne. Nine months ago, he was ranked No. 80, which tells you all you need to know. He\u2019s great fun to watch, especially when he\u2019s on. He\u2019s also great fun to follow, especially if you don\u2019t mind the carnival ride. But is he a legit contender (i.e., a player capable of dazzling tennis, not on a given day, but on seven consecutive, specific days)?<\/p>\n

(Spare a moment for Holger Rune, as he recovers from an Achilles injury.)<\/p>\n

11. Daniil Medvedev<\/strong><\/p>\n

The <\/strong>former finalist\u2014who came a few games from winning the title when he got there\u2014won a total of one match at the four majors in 2025. He found some form in the fall, which bodes well. With two kids at home, a new coach, a title in Brisbane and a 30th birthday approaching, you wonder where he is in the tennis life cycle. His talent and track record, especially on hard courts, put him squarely in the contender category, at least the one after Sinner and Alcaraz.\u00a0<\/p>\n

12. Casper Ruud<\/strong><\/p>\n

The faster the court, the less you like his chances. He\u2019s an admirable player and an outstanding tennis citizen, but you wonder if he hasn\u2019t already hit his ceiling.\u00a0<\/p>\n

13. Andrey Rublev<\/strong><\/p>\n

A first-round loser to Jo\u00e3o Fonseca last year, he\u2019s too good a player not to be in the top 10, but too erratic to be considered a serious contender.<\/p>\n

14. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Zverev is perhaps the best player never to have won a major, might ADF be the best player never to have won a title of any size? Unlikely to happen here, but he\u2019s dangerous, fun to watch and destined to win something soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n

15. Karen Khachanov<\/strong><\/p>\n

He is a pro\u2019s pro whose factory setting is to play well in Week 1 and lose to a player with more gears and athleticism in Week 2.<\/p>\n

16. Jakub Men\u0161\u00edk<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Miami winner has hard-court chops. But he\u2019s retreated a bit in the past six months, and you worry about him holding up in extreme conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Jakub<\/p>\n

Jakub Mensik will face Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta in the first round. | David Gonzales-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Seeds 17-32<\/strong><\/p>\n

17. Ji\u0159\u00ed Lehe\u010dka<\/strong><\/p>\n

He is an up-and-down player, but the faster the court, the more dangerous Lehe\u010dka is.<\/p>\n

20. Flavio Cobolli\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another Italian \u2026 he continues arrowing up.<\/p>\n

19. Tommy Paul<\/strong><\/p>\n

The former semifinalist in Melbourne essentially lost the second half of 2025 to an assortment of injuries. Not unlike so many players, the gap between healthy and unhealthy is vast.\u00a0<\/p>\n

25. Learner Tien<\/strong><\/p>\n

All he does is win. He was a Week 2 player in 2025. Why not again?<\/p>\n

27. Brandon Nakashima<\/strong><\/p>\n

American tennis\u2019s silent assassin is coming off the Brisbane final.<\/p>\n

28. Jo\u00e3o Fonseca<\/strong><\/p>\n

Last year\u2019s revelation returns this year as a seed\u2014and he\u2019s still only 19. However, his back injury is a cause for concern.<\/p>\n

30. Valentin Vacherot<\/strong><\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see if he can catapult fall success into results at a major.<\/p>\n

31. Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jeez, could this former finalist use some good news<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Dark horse corridor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hubert Hurkacz: <\/strong>The former (longtime) top-10 player is back and booming serves. (Is he ready for best-of-five matches?)<\/p>\n

Zizou Bergs: <\/strong>The <\/strong>Belgian shotmaker is squarely in the top 50, and already has a 2026 win over Men\u0161\u00edk.<\/p>\n

Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez: <\/strong>A hard-court win last week over Fritz is a statement.<\/p>\n

Marin \u010cili\u0107: <\/strong>All former major winners (and finalists at this event) merit mention.<\/p>\n

Stan Wawrinka: <\/strong>All former champs merit mention (even if they\u2019re almost 41).<\/p>\n

First round matches to watch<\/strong><\/p>\n

De Minaur vs. Matteo Berrettini:<\/strong> The Aussie starts against a former top 10 stalwart.<\/p>\n

Bergs vs. Hurkacz:<\/strong> A brutal draw for both.<\/p>\n

Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo:<\/strong> Upset alert?<\/p>\n

Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert:<\/strong> With Ga\u00ebl Monfils likely awaiting the winner.<\/p>\n

Sinner vs. Hugo Gaston:<\/strong> Sinner will win but Gaston can vex.<\/p>\n

Eliot Spizzirri vs. Fonseca:<\/strong> If Fonseca\u2019s back is acting up, this will be a big opportunity for the Connecticut Yankee.<\/p>\n

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. B\u00e1ez: <\/strong>If you like contrasts \u2026<\/p>\n

Tien vs. Marcos Giron:<\/strong> USC vs. UCLA<\/p>\n

Upset special\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jenson Brooksby<\/strong> d. Bublik<\/p>\n

Semifinals<\/strong><\/p>\n

Medvedev <\/strong>d. Alcaraz
Sinner<\/strong> d. Shelton<\/p>\n

Final<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sinner<\/strong> d. Medvedev<\/p>\n

More Tennis on Sports Illustrated<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The first week of the season was men\u2019s tennis cast in miniature. In fact, it illuminated wealth inequality…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":518838,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[62,1464,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-518837","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tennis","8":"tag-sports","9":"tag-tennis","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115901269944451207","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=518837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/518837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/518838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=518837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=518837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=518837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}