![\"'One](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Blank-2000-x-1127-3-1.jpg\")
<\/p>\nThe odds on the favorites, per a mathematical formula that factors in awards season data and historical trends.<\/p>\n
\tPublished on January 17, 2026\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Sinners,’ ‘Hamnet,’ ‘Marty Supreme,’ ‘Frankenstein’ and ‘Sentimental Value’ lead Ben Zauzmer’s math model in the Oscar best picture race.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tEverett<\/p>\n
\n\tIt might feel as if this year\u2019s best picture race was over before it began. Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s One Battle After Another earned top honors from the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, and a host of critic circles, not to mention key nominations from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, and many others.<\/p>\n
\n\tBut before tuning out of this year\u2019s race, and this\u00a013th annual\u00a0<\/a>mathematical prediction of the Oscars nominees, keep in mind that all of the following films notched every single honor mentioned in the previous paragraph: Sense and Sensibility, Saving Private Ryan, Sideways, Brokeback Mountain, The Social Network, Boyhood, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. None of them won best picture at the Oscars. In truth, what One Battle has is not a guarantee but a probability.<\/p>\n \n\tWhat probability, exactly? That\u2019s where I come in. We\u2019ll get to the odds of winning each category in March, but for now, we can calculate the odds that every potential nominee gets invited to the ceremony. My model combines all of the information we have on awards season thus far \u2013 weighting each input by how predictive it has been in the past in each category \u2013 to give us a sense of the race. Since the Academy expanded to 10 best picture nominees, an average of 9\/10 of the top candidates in this model went on to hear their name called; we\u2019ll see how this year\u2019s probabilities do.<\/p>\n \tBest Picture<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tOne Battle After Another is clearly the film to beat, and Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Frankenstein are the contenders who appear to be most up to the task. All five should almost certainly hear their name called with nominees are announced, with Sentimental Value and Train Dreams also good bets to join that list.<\/p>\n \n\tFrom there, it gets tougher to predict. It Was Just an Accident has a 2-in-3 chance, and Bugonia is just over 1-in-2. No other film even reaches 1-in-3, meaning that at least one candidate will have to beat the odds to slip into the most coveted category of them all.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Director<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tIt\u2019s been one award after another for Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), making him and Ryan Coogler (Sinners) virtual locks to get nominated. A former winner in this category, Chlo\u00e9 Zhao (Hamnet), is also a strong contender here.<\/p>\n \n\tAfter that, we have four names between 34 percent and 63 percent, and short of a major surprise, we should expect to see two get in and two left out from this quartet. The Directors Guild opted for Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), but the model is leaning slightly in favor of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) as the threat of an Iranian prison sentence hangs over him.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Actor<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tIt\u2019s pretty rare to see this much cohesion among disparate critic groups, but there\u2019s been a strong consensus in the data around the top five: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Perhaps the exception is Moura getting left out of an Actor Award ceremony that overlooked a number of foreign performances, but he made up for it with a Golden Globe win.<\/p>\n \n\tIf an upset is going to emerge on the nominations list, look to Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) or Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) as the most likely beneficiaries.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Actress<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThe two Golden Globe winners \u2013 Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You) \u2013 are clearly on top. Next up: A pair of actresses at opposite ends of the career spectrum \u2013 Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) making her film debut, and Emma Stone (Bugonia) with two Oscars already sitting on the mantel.<\/p>\n \n\tRenate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) sure seemed like she\u2019d be the fifth actress above 50 percent, but the Screen Actors Guild\u2019s shutout of her film did her no favors. That could open the door for Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) or Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), both of whom are looking for their second Oscar nominations.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Supporting Actor<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tIt\u2019s not entirely uncommon to see costars competing in the same category at the Oscars; it\u2019s happened 75 times before. What is uncommon is when there\u2019s no clear hierarchy between them. And yet, the math has Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) tied at 89.1 percent. Throw in a three-way tie with Paul Mescal (Hamnet), all of whom are just 6.1 percent behind Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd (Sentimental Value) and we\u2019ve got ourselves a fascinating race.<\/p>\n \n\tThere\u2019s still plenty of time this awards season for one of them to separate from the pack, or for Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), or either of the Sinners actors to leapfrog the entire group. But for now, this collection has no clear frontrunner.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Supporting Actress<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tThis is the third of four categories in this article in which One Battle After Another is in the lead, this time represented by Teyana Taylor. In the dozen-plus years I\u2019ve been predicting Oscar nominations mathematically, only Boyhood, Nomadland, The Power of the Dog, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer have led in half of these eight categories at this juncture. Pretty good company, in terms of early-awards-season dominance.<\/p>\n \n\tCritics Choice winner Amy Madigan (Sinners) is above 90 percent to get nominated, with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) also cautiously optimistic to hear their names called. If one of them misses the cut, it could be Odessa A\u2019zion (Marty Supreme) or Lilleaas\u2019 co-star Elle Fanning who takes her place.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Original Screenplay<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tFive films are clearly ahead in the original screenplay race: Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and Weapons. But just as notable might be a film that didn\u2019t make this list at all: The Secret Agent. It\u2019s a popular pick to grab an original screenplay nomination, so how come the model isn\u2019t giving the film its due?<\/p>\n \n\tWhile The Secret Agent has earned a number of plaudits in best foreign language film categories, it\u2019s struggled to gain much traction in terms of honors for its screenplay, which the model puts more stock in. That said, there may be a recent trend the algorithm hasn\u2019t yet picked up on of precursors underestimating the awards-season power of international cinema. After all, the model is 19\/20 on best picture nominees over the last two years, with fellow Brazilian film I\u2019m Still Here the lone miss. If that\u2019s the case, perhaps the top five aren\u2019t quite as secure as the data suggests.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n \tBest Adapted Screenplay<\/p>\n \t\t\t \n\tMy model uses plenty of inputs to make these predictions, but two traditional predictors are notably absent this year: the BAFTAs and the Writers Guild. Both decided to calendar their nomination announcements after the Academy\u2019s, rendering themselves a non-entity in this year\u2019s math. That gives these predictions larger error bars than usual, and for the screenplay categories in particular.<\/p>\n \n\tThe result is a whopping six films above 60 percent. Of course, at least one of these six has to wind up disappointed, with only five spots to go around. One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Train Dreams, Bugonia, No Other Choice, and Frankenstein might all individually be optimistic, but someone will draw the short straw.<\/p>\n \n\tOn Thursday morning, one phase of the Oscar race will indeed be over. But the even more exciting phase will just be getting started.<\/p>\n \nwindow.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});\n<\/p>\n \n\tBen Zauzmer is the author of\u00a0Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n \t\tTHR Newsletters<\/p>\n Sign up for THR news straight to your inbox every day<\/p>\n\n
![\"'One](\"https:\/\/www.hollywoodreporter.com\/wp-content\/themes\/vip\/pmc-hollywoodreporter-2021\/assets\/public\/lazyload-fallback.gif\")
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Everett\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n