But Houston is not destiny for Fort Worth, according to three University of Houston professors researching the impact Texas taking control of schools has had on enrollment and teachers in the state\u2019s largest city. Who leads can determine whether a takeover triggers an exodus of students and teachers or stabilizes a system under pressure, they said.<\/p>\n
Houston\u2019s intervention differs from Fort Worth\u2019s, research scientist Toni Templeton said. The takeover in Houston was prolonged over four years, delayed by lawsuits trying to stop the intervention. Fort Worth\u2019s path has been swift, as the takeover launched in October and the appointment of a superintendent and board of managers is expected in the spring.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe takeover could be very different in Fort Worth than it is in HISD,\u201d Templeton said.<\/p>\n
The researchers\u2019 conclusions are based on a new report examining how Houston ISD\u2019s enrollment and teacher workforce declined during the first two years of state control under Superintendent Mike Miles \u2014 a period they say offers early but important signals for districts like Fort Worth that may soon face state oversight.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201c\u200aA different leader with a different kind of philosophy within the administration might lead to a very different outcome in Fort Worth,\u201d said Blake Heller, a public policy professor.<\/p>\n
Enrollment declines \u2014 but how steep?<\/p>\n
Houston ISD was already losing students before the state takeover began in 2023, a result of the same factors at play in FWISD such as declining birth rates, people waiting longer to have kids and the affordability of homes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But the report found those losses accelerated after the state installed a board of managers and appointed Miles as superintendent, increasing from a loss of about 2% annually before the takeover to roughly 3.5% per year afterward.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In two years, the district lost more than 13,000 students \u2014 about 7% of its enrollment.<\/p>\n
The steepest declines occurred at key transition points, including early elementary grades and ninth grade, when families are most likely to reassess their schooling options. Yet, the researchers said families began exercising that choice across a wider range of grades following the takeover.<\/p>\n
\u201cI also think that what we saw post-takeover \u2014 or before the takeover \u2014 is most of those people who were leaving were choosing to leave in the early grades,\u201d economics professor Willa Friedman said. \u201cAfter the takeover, you see a lot more people exercising that decision-making in the upper grades as well.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another trend researchers noticed was among schools part of Houston\u2019s New Education System that feature scripted lesson plans and materials. Less autonomous schools saw sharper declines than campuses with greater freedoms, the report shows.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are some schools that might really benefit from a heavy hand in turning around a school culture and changing practices that were not driving results for students,\u201d Heller said. \u201cBut there are other schools where this type of intervention amounts to kind of messing with a good thing. We don\u2019t want to mess with success.\u201d<\/p>\n
Enrollment losses carry financial consequences. Texas funds public schools based on student attendance, meaning sustained declines can quickly strain district budgets \u2014 especially in large districts like Houston and Fort Worth with significant fixed costs.<\/p>\n
Fort Worth ISD has experienced its own enrollment declines in recent years, driven by a combination of demographic shifts<\/a>, competition from nearby districts and charter schools, and broader statewide trends. District leaders have acknowledged the challenge publicly, warning that fewer students translate into less funding while many costs remain difficult to scale back quickly.<\/p>\n In response, officials have pointed to a mix of cost controls and longer-term strategies aimed at stabilizing enrollment, including campus consolidations<\/a>, program redesigns<\/a> and efforts to strengthen early literacy<\/a> and student support services.\u00a0<\/p>\n Those changes are intended to improve academic outcomes and retain families in a competitive education market, district leaders have said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Teacher workforce shifts\u00a0 The report also documents major changes to Houston ISD\u2019s teacher workforce following the takeover.<\/p>\n Before state control, the district typically employed fewer than 100 uncertified teachers in a given year. Since then, that number has risen into the thousands, reflecting a shift toward a less experienced and less credentialed workforce, the researchers said.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you\u2019re an optimist, you\u2019ll say, \u2018Oh, this is a reflection of an innovative approach to staffing and tapping new pools of talent,\u2019\u201d Heller said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Supporters of Houston ISD\u2019s approach argue that centralized lesson plans and coaching models reduce reliance on teacher experience, the researchers said. But they also noted that decades of education research link teacher certification and experience to student outcomes, particularly in high-need schools.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u200a\u201dIf you\u2019re a pessimist, you point at prior research that suggests least certified, least experienced teachers also have the worst results when it comes to student performance,\u201d Heller said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Houston\u2019s teacher workforce could be a warning sign for Fort Worth, Friedman said.<\/p>\n \u201cOne of the things we\u2019re seeing here is that it is possible to effectively run out of certified teachers,\u201d Friedman said. \u201cAn intervention that keeps teachers interested in continuing to be part of the district is going to have a very different effect than one that maybe encourages teachers to decide they want a different profession or work in a different place.\u201d<\/p>\n In large urban districts, partnerships with universities, nonprofits and teacher preparation programs often play a role in recruiting educators, supporting new teachers and expanding student services.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fort Worth ISD has already begun pursuing that approach. Earlier this year, the district announced a partnership with Tarleton State University<\/a> aimed at recruiting district employees into teaching through a \u201cgrow your own\u201d apprenticeship program, an effort designed to expand the local teacher pipeline and support retention in high-need schools.<\/p>\n Fort Worth ISD could avoid Houston\u2019s fate by further embracing these partnerships and associated state dollars, Templeton said.<\/p>\n \u201cYou\u2019re solving lots of different problems in one go,\u201d she said. \u201cYou don\u2019t necessarily have to go out and look for new teachers every year if you\u2019ve got this really well-designed pipeline.\u201d<\/p>\n For now, FWISD remains under local control with oversight from a conservator<\/a>. The appointments of managers and superintendent are expected in the coming months. Then the takeover will be in full swing.<\/p>\n Whether the intervention succeeds depends on something state officials and new FWISD leaders have to earn from the community, according to the researchers.<\/p>\n Trust.<\/p>\n Matthew Sgroi is an education reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at matthew.sgroi@fortworthreport.org<\/a> or @matthewsgroi1<\/a>.<\/p>\n Jacob Sanchez is education editor for the Fort Worth Report. 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Teacher Marissa Banks speaks with students Kevin Hernandez and Aidyn Green about pharmacy supplies at Fort Worth ISD\u2019s Texas Academy of Biomedical Sciences on Nov. 19, 2025. (Maria Crane | Fort Worth Report\/CatchLight Local\/Report for America)<\/p>\n