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<\/p>\nMick Abel\u2019s scouting experience started normally.<\/p>\n
A Pro Day at his training facility in Oregon with scouts and crosscheckers from all 30 teams in attendance. In-home visits with scouts. Then came the pandemic in March 2020: \u201cI don\u2019t think anybody really knew what to do,\u201d Abel said.<\/p>\n
His final high school season was over before it started. Conversations with scouts transitioned to Zoom, ramping up in the weeks before the Phillies took him 15th overall. He was the first of 19 high school pitchers selected in the 2020 draft \u2014 and one of only three who has debuted in the majors.<\/p>\n
\u201cA testament to our body of work in the summer and fall,\u201d Phillies assistant scouting director Connor Betbeze said. \u201cWe felt comfortable with the kid \u2013 staying in contact (and) had a plan, everything ready to go.\u201d<\/p>\n
That body of work \u2014 countless hours scouting tournaments and high school games, dissecting information from baseball information platforms such as Synergy and TrackMan \u2014 plays a key role in the Phillies\u2019 comfort level drafting players from a risky cohort: high schoolers.<\/p>\n
Philadelphia has selected high schoolers with its first-round pick 12 times since 2010 and in five consecutive drafts, beginning in 2020. From 2010-23, the Phillies drafted and signed 43 high school position players. Of those players, seven reached the majors (six with the Phillies).<\/p>\n
For the most part, the Phillies have had success with recent high school first-rounders. Outside of that group, however, there have been some struggles, which is common among\u00a0the preps cohort.<\/p>\n
With a longer developmental timeline comes greater risk. Injuries can spiral or take away playing time that younger players need to improve their game. There is more uncertainty about how high school players\u2019 tools will develop. The lack of a linear path to success can be challenging for players who have never failed.<\/p>\n
The risks are inherent; the rewards could be great. And the Phillies trust their scouts to find the player that \u201cif he goes to college, in four years, he\u2019s going to become a guy that becomes a top-five pick, a top-10 pick,\u201d general manager Preston Mattingly said.<\/p>\n
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Justin Crawford poses with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred after the Phillies drafted him at No. 17 in 2022. Three years later, he\u2019s excelling in Triple A. (Kevork Djansezian \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n
The Phillies\u2019 embrace of high schoolers comes in an era where top-drafted college players, from Cam Smith to Paul Skenes to Jacob Wilson, have rapidly ascended to the big leagues and become stars. Their development took place in pitching labs, on college fields, and in postseason competition, making the jump to the big leagues easier. Many teams incorporate analytical models into their draft process, and the models tend to favor college players because there is more information available.<\/p>\n
Since Brian Barber, the assistant general manager for scouting, took over the Phillies\u2019 drafts five years ago, they\u2019ve given more than $750,000 to only two collegiate players. Both \u2014 Casey Martin (third round, 2020) and Ethan Wilson (second round, 2021) \u2014 have since been released by the club.<\/p>\n
So, with risk abounding and ready-made players available, why continue to covet high schoolers?<\/p>\n
The Phillies have recently picked later in the first round: 26th (2025), 27th (2023-24), 17th (2022), 13th (2021) and 15th (2020). Many top college players are off the board by then. The organization feels picking late is conducive to selecting high school players with high upside, Mattingly said.<\/p>\n
To the Phillies, high upside means:<\/p>\n
\u201cFind the guys that can get there the fastest and stay there the longest,\u201d Luke Murton, director of player development, said.<\/p>\n
\u201cA player that has the potential to impact a major-league roster, so once he gets there, not only is he a player on the team, but he\u2019s a productive, impactful player on the team,\u201d Barber said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSomebody that\u2019s athletic, somebody that is toolsy, somebody that has skills, instincts,\u201d Phillies crosschecker Bryce Harman said. \u201cThey have aptitude, they have work ethic and (they\u2019re) a guy that loves the game.\u201d<\/p>\n
Finding and developing high-upside players stems from great trust between\u00a0the scouting and developmental teams. The groups, like many other teams\u2019 units, get together during spring training. Player development tells scouts about what has worked for players in the Phillies\u2019 system, what hasn\u2019t, issues they weren\u2019t anticipating. Scouts can use that information, Betbeze said, thinking, \u201cHey, this player is kind of like this player that we drafted two years ago. This really worked for him. I think we could probably do the same thing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Take the Phillies\u2019 approach to perhaps the draft\u2019s riskiest demographic: high school pitchers, and righties in particular. Many teams shy away from right-handed high schoolers<\/a>; The first high school righty of the 2024 draft was not taken until pick 36.<\/p>\n Yet the Phillies have used two recent first-round picks on righties: Abel (15th in 2000) and Andrew Painter (13th, 2021). Why?<\/p>\n \u201cI mean, those guys have a humongous upside,\u201d Mattingly said. \u201cBut it\u2019s a risky demographic. But if you do your homework and you\u2019re truly scouting the players, you realize that these players have a chance to pitch in the middle or the top of a rotation. So that\u2019s what you\u2019re hunting for, because to acquire that player in free agency costs anywhere between $20 million to $40 million.\u201d<\/p>\n Painter exemplifies the potential challenges, missing more than a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024. So does Abel, who lost command and stumbled to a 6.46 ERA in Triple-A in 2024.<\/p>\n
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