When President Trump threatened Brazil with punishing tariffs on Wednesday, there was no fancy mathematical equation trotted out this time as justification.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The 50% levy on goods was retribution for a perceived \u201cwitch hunt<\/a>\u201d against his political ally,\u00a0Jair Bolsanaro, whose supporters\u00a0attempted a coup<\/a>\u00a0two years ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n This administration is bringing back the law of the jungle to international trade, according to trade expert Kristen Hopewell<\/a>, and time is running out to salvage the remains of a post-war system of commerce that promoted stability and prosperity across the world.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump is a totally unreliable negotiating partner,\u201d she tells\u00a0Fortune.\u00a0\u201cAny deal you strike with the administration is not worth the paper it\u2019s written on.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n As if to hammer home that point, news began to\u00a0emerge<\/a>\u00a0on Thursday that Vietnam had been caught off guard when Trump\u00a0prematurely announced<\/a>\u00a0a 20% duty on all goods entering the U.S. from the southeast Asian country. Vietnamese officials were reportedly still hoping for a number closer to half that.<\/p>\n Nor is there any apparent rhyme or reason to his tariffs. Brazil, for example, doesn\u2019t even run a trade surplus with the United States\u2014it imported $28.6 billion more goods and services from the U.S. last year than it exported. On Wednesday, when asked how he calculated his various import duties, the president answered that he\u00a0uses<\/a>\u00a0\u201ca formula based on common sense,\u201d one that reflects \u201chow we\u2019ve been treated.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Hopewell, a professor at the University of British Columbia, argues this erratic and fickle approach to international negotiations is symptomatic of a Trump deal: \u201cHe can simply come back later demanding more. There\u2019s no guarantee it will actually be upheld.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s because the president already removed a cornerstone underpinning global commerce during his first administration six years ago when he blocked all appointments to what is essentially the supreme court of the World Trade Organization (WTO) \u2014 its Appellate Body.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe WTO is unique amongst international organizations in that its rules are actually legally binding on states. It has teeth,\u201d Hopewell said.\u00a0Or rather it had teeth.<\/p>\n Kick the United States out <\/p>\n Since the Biden administration continued its policy of blocking appointments to fill its vacancies, there is now no quorum to adjudicate trade disputes, leaving countries little incentive to abide by the rules anymore. Quite the contrary, they can break them with near impunity.\u00a0<\/p>\n President Trump’s letter to the Federative Republic of Brazil pic.twitter.com\/G8JATXGRqI<\/a>\u2014 Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 9, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The United States didn\u2019t always favor dismantling these guardrails. <\/p>\n Over a decade ago, the country led a number of key partners, including Japan and the European Union, to press their rights against China when it attempted to restrict the export of critical minerals, including rare earths. <\/p>\n In 2015, they later won in front of the Appellate Body, forcing Beijing to relent.<\/p>\n Thanks to Trump, this enforcement mechanism no longer works. <\/p>\n In January 2020, just weeks after the WTO\u2019s Appellate Body was decommissioned, Indonesia moved to impose a ban on the export of raw nickel. <\/p>\n Since it has one of the largest remaining deposits of this element vital for electric vehicle batteries and stainless steel, it reckoned it could compel the creation of a domestic downstream industry for processing and refining the ore.<\/p>\n Other countries argued in front of the WTO that it violated the rules and\u00a0won<\/a>\u2014or at least they thought they had.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n