{"id":626413,"date":"2026-03-02T08:02:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T08:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/626413\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T08:02:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T08:02:27","slug":"what-2026-actor-awards-mean-for-the-oscar-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/626413\/","title":{"rendered":"What 2026 Actor Awards mean for the Oscar race"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There were tears (and cheers) for Catherine O\u2019Hara<\/a>. Rhea Seehorn explained \u201cPluribus,\u201d or at least tried to. Harrison Ford was celebrated<\/a> at the \u201chalf-point of his career.\u201d And, because the show\u2019s on Netflix, there were a few well-placed F-bombs, not including the swears muttered by the actors who didn\u2019t win. <\/p>\n

The 32nd Actor Awards<\/a> \u2014 or the very first Actor Awards, since for the previous 31 years this ceremony has been known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards \u2014 went off without a hitch Sunday, and ended with a bang, scrambling a best picture race that felt settled after \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d won the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards on Saturday<\/a>. <\/p>\n

There were TV awards presented too. But we pay attention to the Actor Awards because the show takes place while Oscar ballots are out and are, for the most part, a reliable precursor to the Academy Awards. How trustworthy will they be for the acting winners this year? Let\u2019s take a look.<\/p>\n

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Cast in a motion picture \"Delroy <\/p>\n

(Kayla Bartkowski \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Winner: <\/b>\u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n

The past:<\/b> The winner of this award has gone on to take the best picture Oscar in 15 of 30 years, making it basically a coin flip and easily the Actor Awards\u2019 least trustworthy Oscar precursor. (The ensemble prize wasn\u2019t awarded in 1994, the ceremony\u2019s first year.) Oscar also-ran \u201cConclave\u201d won last year<\/a>, ending a three-year streak \u2014 \u201cCODA,\u201d \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d and \u201cOppenheimer\u201d \u2014 where the winner of the cast prize went on to take best picture.<\/p>\n

Will history repeat itself? <\/b>If \u201cSinners\u201d had simply taken this award and nothing else, I would say \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d would still be the overwhelming favorite to win the best picture Oscar. But snagging this prize and Michael B. Jordan winning lead actor gives one pause, doesn\u2019t it? Again, the cast award is not a reliable best picture precursor. A Ryan Coogler movie (\u201cBlack Panther\u201d) won in 2019, but lost the Oscar to \u201cGreen Book.\u201d And while \u201cSinners\u201d did haul in a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations<\/a>, \u201cOne Battle\u201d wasn\u2019t far behind with 13, just one shy of the previous record. It\u2019s easy to get carried away with the way the room exploded when Samuel L. Jackson announced the winner, but \u201cOne Battle\u2019s\u201d Producers Guild win carries more weight. I\u2019ll need a couple of days to sit with this. <\/p>\n

Female actor in a leading role \"Jessie <\/p>\n

(Kayla Bartkowski \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Winner: <\/b>Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d<\/p>\n

The past: <\/b>SAG and the academy have matched 21 of 31 years. The last two years have seen the groups split, with Emma Stone (\u201cPoor Things\u201d) winning her second Oscar over SAG winner Lily Gladstone (\u201cKillers of the Flower Moon\u201d) in 2024 and Mikey Madison prevailing for \u201cAnora\u201d over Demi Moore, who won over SAG-AFTRA voters and earned a huge standing ovation when she took the stage for her gonzo comeback turn in the body horror movie \u201cThe Substance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Will history repeat itself? <\/b>Buckley has been a lock for the lead actress Oscar since \u201cHamnet\u201d premiered in September at the Telluride Film Festival, her searching, searing turn as the film\u2019s grieving mother producing the kind of visceral reaction that guts audiences and wins awards. And, boy, has she won awards these last few months, taking pretty much everything save for the major critics groups. The naysayers decried the acting as overripe, sniffing instead of sniffling. Monsters. There\u2019s no denying Buckley goes big with her emotions here, but the magic in her work also can be seen in a much-used still photo from \u201cHamnet,\u201d the one where she\u2019s resting her elbows on the Old Globe stage, hands clasped, face transfixed, heart opened. You know the shot. And you\u2019re probably getting a little verklempt just thinking about it. <\/p>\n

Male actor in a leading role \"Michael <\/p>\n

(Kayla Bartkowski \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Winner: <\/b>Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d<\/p>\n

The past: <\/b>This category has been the most reliable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the academy matching 24 of 31 times. There are exceptions, though, such as just last year when Adrien Brody won the Oscar for \u201cThe Brutalist,\u201d prevailing over SAG winner Chalamet (\u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d).<\/p>\n

Will history repeat itself?<\/b> Entering the month of February, it looked like Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet was a shoo-in for playing a talented, self-promoting ping-pong player in \u201cMarty Supreme.\u201d In fact, some know-it-all called this race<\/a> more or less over just a week ago. (That was me.) Chalamet could still win. Maybe SAG-AFTRA voters didn\u2019t want to give him the award again, just a year after they honored him for his lead turn in \u201cA Complete Unknown.\u201d Maybe SAG-AFTRA voters felt he was a bit, shall we say … \u201cbrash\u201d in the way he marketed the movie and needed to be taken down a peg. <\/p>\n

So now, entering March, it\u2019s looking like \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d could be this year\u2019s version of \u201cThe Irishman,\u201d a film that earns a lot of nominations (in this case, nine) and comes away with nothing. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Jordan\u2019s big swing movie star turn in \u201cSinners,\u201d playing twin brothers Smoke and Stack, was the best work of his career. That scream that Viola Davis let out when she opened the envelope spoke to the enthusiasm in the room both for the actor and the film. Momentum definitely seems to be on Jordan\u2019s side right now. <\/p>\n

Female actor in a supporting role \"Amy <\/p>\n

(Kayla Bartkowski \/ Los Angeles Times)<\/p>\n

Winner: <\/b>Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d<\/p>\n

The past:<\/b> The Actor Award winner has gone on to take an Oscar 23 of 31 times, including last year, when Zoe Salda\u00f1a won for \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez,\u201d one of countless prizes she won that season. (Note: One of those 23 winners, \u201cThe Reader\u2019s\u201d Kate Winslet, was nominated for \u2014 and won \u2014 the 2009 Oscar for lead actress for that performance.)<\/p>\n

Will history repeat itself? <\/b>Who knows? This category has been all over the place, but as Madigan said in her speech, she\u2019s been doing this a \u201clong ass time\u201d and there\u2019s a lot of love for this 75-year-old acting great<\/a>. Teyana Taylor (\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d) took the Golden Globe, and Wunmi Mosaku (\u201cSinners\u201d) won at the British Academy Film Awards. And the \u201cthey\u2019re due\u201d narrative doesn\u2019t always play at the Oscars. (Just ask Demi Moore or Glenn Close.) Will a \u201cOne Battle\u201d sweep carry both Taylor and Sean Penn? Or is there room for an outlier? It\u2019s tempting to lean toward Madigan.<\/p>\n

Male actor in a supporting role \"Sean <\/p>\n

Winner: <\/b>Sean Penn, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/p>\n

The past:<\/b> The SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 22 times in 31 years, including the last dozen, the longest streak of any category.<\/p>\n

Will history repeat itself? <\/b>Penn did not attend the Actor Awards, the only thing less surprising than this win. Coming on the heels of taking the supporting actor prize from BAFTA<\/a> last weekend (Penn didn\u2019t go to that ceremony either), it\u2019s looking likely now that Penn will win his third Oscar. He\u2019s barely campaigned and remains a divisive figure. But his menacing turn as the outrageous Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, a man given to zealotry and tight T-shirts, is the best work he has done in years. Will he go to the Oscars, if only to collect the trophy so he can give another statue to Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky<\/a>? We\u2019ll soon see.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There were tears (and cheers) for Catherine O\u2019Hara. Rhea Seehorn explained \u201cPluribus,\u201d or at least tried to. Harrison…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":626414,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5123],"tags":[220047,1037,1582,276,65141,4446,1020,2961,26822,224,2444,5337,199685,2089,3196,50,2450,220048,14164,8066],"class_list":["post-626413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-97th-oscars","tag-art","tag-ca","tag-california","tag-daily-life","tag-death","tag-film","tag-la","tag-last-week","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-losangeles","tag-lynch","tag-man","tag-movie","tag-news","tag-thursday","tag-times-writer","tag-way","tag-work"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116158539540611353","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=626413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626413\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/626414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=626413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=626413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=626413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}