The massive docket is the most ambitious we\u2019ve seen from Governor Abbott, according to University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe first thing that popped out to me was that this is a list chock-full of priorities that didn\u2019t get done and some regulatory issues that need to be cleared up,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s a tough mix of items for a special. Typically, the governor will be very narrow in what he wants, and this is a much more expansive agenda than that.\u201d <\/p>\n
Freshman Sen. Molly Cook, D-Houston, said the docket looks more like a regular session than a special session. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think a lot of folks are not optimistic that it gets done in 30 days,\u201d she said. \u201cWe\u2019re preparing for a longer stay in Austin for sure.\u201d<\/p>\n
Abbott called four 30-day special sessions in 2023, hoping to get school vouchers approved, but instead that was delayed until the 89th legislative session that ended June 2. Rottinghaus said the dense agenda released last week indicates the governor has seen an increase in support for his priorities from lawmakers. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt reflects the fact that he has much more confidence in his abilities legislatively and it shows a clear persuasive impact of Donald Trump,\u201d Rottinghaus said. \u201cThe risk with a big list of menu items is that the Lege gets too full too fast. They can only eat so much. Even if it\u2019s a set of menu items that they\u2019re hungry for, because of timing, it just may not all come to pass.\u201d <\/p>\n
\n The professor said he thinks lawmakers will tackle redistricting, flood response and THC in the early days of the session and pick up the other items later. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s lots of three-dimensional chess being played,\u201d he said. \u201cThe Democrats almost have to show up because the partisan angle response will be that Republicans wanted to spend more time on disaster preparedness and the Democrats didn\u2019t show up, so they\u2019re going to have to show up. Leadership, including the governor, will want to start with bills that they need a quorum for.\u201d <\/p>\n
There are several items on the list that will require a lot of negotiation and thoughtfulness, Rottinghaus added. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe rules relating to natural disasters could take a long time to finish,\u201d he said. \u201cIf they\u2019re serious about the STAAR test elimination, that\u2019s going to be something they spend a lot of time with. THC reform is going to be, by itself, a full special session if not more. There\u2019s a lot on this list that\u2019s going to take much longer than 30 days. To get them all done is going to be a real challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rice University political science professor Mark Jones disagreed. \u201cLegislatively, it\u2019s possible. You think of what they can do in 140 days, more like 70 days, they get the entire legislative agenda passed. Here they have less than 20 items, some of which the governor already signaled exactly what he wants,\u201d he said. \u201cSome have already been redrafted and rewritten and are ready to go.<\/p>\n
\u201cRedistricting is actually going to be pretty simple in that they have a map and they push that map through,\u201d he added. \u201cThere won\u2019t be debate over changing district boundaries beyond the technical levels. I would assume that the Trump administration has already presented Texas Republicans with maps they\u2019ve redrawn.\u201d<\/p>\n
Immediately after Abbott\u2019s proclamation was released last week, residents called out the governor on social media about previous suggestions to eliminate property taxes. That\u2019s not happening, Jones said. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe property tax relief that was carried out in the regular session leaned heavier on homestead exemptions than compression,\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t know if the goal would be to add some compression to alleviate property taxes through that route. Even the most conservative Republican knows you can\u2019t get rid of property taxes. Compression is the way you reduce it proportionally.\u201d <\/p>\n
Rottinghaus said he didn\u2019t think Texans will see property tax relief in the special session: \u201cI think they\u2019ve gone about as far as they can go, at least for now,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
What has to pass, the professors agreed, is redistricting. <\/p>\n
\u201cIf they\u2019re going to redistrict, it has to be sooner than later,\u201d Rottinghaus said. \u201cThe legal challenges that will likely result will take time to sort out and they want to make sure they meet the November deadline for candidate filing.\u201d <\/p>\n
Redistricting \u201cIt\u2019s been no secret that President Trump and his MAGA Republican allies expect to have major losses in the House of Representatives in the midterm,\u201d Menefee said. \u201cInstead of doing what\u2019s necessary to pass good policy and help people, work across the aisle and be a good steward of government resources, they\u2019re trying to stack the deck.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re trying to power grab in Republican states,\u201d he added. \u201cWe all know there is no distance between the governor\u2019s mansion and the White House because Greg Abbott wants to be president one day. It\u2019s unfortunate and disgraceful that the governor of Texas is playing this game.\u201d <\/p>\n Menefee said he plans to testify in Austin during the special session and expects that collusion between Trump and Abbott will be exposed in discovery when a lawsuit is inevitably filed. <\/p>\n \u201cI think it could be catastrophic for Black and brown voters across Texas,\u201d he said of redistricting. \u201cEvery district they\u2019ve mentioned has a Black or brown representative and is from a district that has a majority Black or brown population that is electing folks. These districts came to be in this country because, for so many years, states excluded people who were not white men or white landowners from participating in our political process.\u201d <\/p>\n The Texas Republicans should take back their party instead of letting Trump run it for them, Menefee added. <\/p>\n \u201cAt no time in modern history could a president of the United States just send out an edict to governors telling them that they should redraw their already heavily gerrymandered maps and the governor just does it, no questions asked,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s despicable. I want Governor Abbott to know that Black folks and Latino folks in this state will not forget this.\u201d <\/p>\n Redistricting arose as a probable special session item when the U.S. Department of Justice sent a letter to Abbott saying that the district boundaries are drawn so that Black and brown voters are \u201cartificially merged together in a way that is not legally fair when you draw majority minority districts,\u201d Rottinghaus said. <\/p>\n \u201cYou can\u2019t merge together African Americans and Latinos to say this is a majority minority district,\u201d he said. \u201cThe law is clear that it has to be one minority that has been excluded or ostracized historically and this district is a way to remedy that.\u201d<\/p>\n But redistricting poses risks for both Republicans and Democrats and is clearly on the agenda for no other reason than it was suggested by the White House, experts say. The president wants to retain his five-seat majority margin in the U.S. House, Jones said. Absent Trump\u2019s involvement, \u201cthere\u2019s no way, shape or form that Texas Republicans would have put that on the agenda,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cDemocrats will shed fake crocodile tears about redistricting but they love the idea of changing the current maps because any changes Republicans make to the current maps are far more likely to benefit Democrats than they are Republicans,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cRepublicans squeezed about as much juice out of that orange back in 2021,\u201d he added. \u201cThere aren\u2019t any more districts that can be created to give the Republicans anything better than their current 25-13 advantage.\u201d <\/p>\n Rottinghaus explained further that GOP lawmakers can redraw boundaries that will move voters from moderate Democratic districts to regions that Republicans currently represent or hope to win, but there are a lot of unknowns in a period of rapid population changes and significant political flux. <\/p>\n \u201cRepublicans are going to have to guess when it comes to where they think their prospective voters are going to be,\u201d he said. \u201cThey try to get certain places in the Valley that they think they can win. That can switch the other way. They\u2019re looking for certain suburbs they think they can do better in, and that could switch back the other way, the way it did in \u201818.\u201d<\/p>\n Notable shifts from red to blue<\/a> occurred in 2018 in Hays, Williamson, Fort Bend and Tarrant counties, and in several Dallas suburbs. <\/p>\n There\u2019s also an issue of optics. Some lawmakers like Texas Democratic Caucus Chair Rep. Gene Wu, D-Houston, have implied that Abbott is capitalizing on the Hill Country flooding tragedy to get Democrats to the table so he can tear up their districts.<\/p>\n \u201cGovernor Abbott listed flood preparedness at the top of his special session call, but then buried it under a pile of cynical political distractions,\u201d Wu said in a statement. \u201cWhile families need relief funds and infrastructure to prevent the next disaster, the governor is more focused on redrawing political maps, prosecuting election officials, and further restricting women\u2019s healthcare.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will not allow this tragedy to be used as political cover for an extreme agenda that does nothing to help families get back on their feet.\u201d <\/p>\n
\n Among those legal challenges could be a suit from Christian Menefee, the Harris County attorney and a candidate for U.S. Congressional District 18<\/a>. <\/p>\n
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