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<\/p>\nGood morning from Atlanta,<\/p>\n
The Padres have been playing well enough lately that another low-scoring, one-run loss didn\u2019t seem so bad.<\/p>\n
That was how they felt for the most part after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Phillies yesterday.<\/p>\n
And that was how they were justified to feel.<\/p>\n
For the most part.<\/p>\n
It is true the Padres have hit more consistently over the past week or so.<\/p>\n
They have a .705 OPS during the past 10 games, 61 points higher than it had been over the previous 44 games.<\/p>\n
They finished 6-4 on their longest homestand of the season, which took them into the All-Star break with a 52-44 record.<\/p>\n
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\u201cIf you go 6-4 over the course of every 10 games, you\u2019re going to win 96 games,\u201d Padres manager Mike Shildt said.<\/p>\n
He is actually shorting by one win a team that plays .600 baseball from the start of the season. And from this point, the Padres winning at that clip over their final 66 games would get them to 92 wins.<\/p>\n
That would be one off their total from last season and almost certainly good enough to earn a postseason berth. In the three seasons since MLB went to six postseason teams in each league, the final seed in the National League has finished with 89 wins (2024), 84 wins (\u201823) and 87 wins (\u201822).<\/p>\n
The Padres played at a .683 clip (43-20) after the break in 2024. That was the 11th-best second-half record in the major leagues since 2000 and the Padres\u2019 best second-half record ever.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve done it before,\u201d Xander Bogaerts said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s pretty much the same guys (from last year). But that doesn\u2019t mean we will do it again.\u201d<\/p>\n
If they are to come close, yesterday was a good reminder of what almost certainly cannot keep happening with such regularity.<\/p>\n
The Padres simply have to score more.<\/p>\n
They are going to burn out their pitching staff \u2014 primarily their bullpen, which cannot keep relying on its four highest-leverage relievers with such regularity.<\/p>\n
Get this:<\/p>\n
The Padres, who have won seven of their 12 games this month, have led by more than one run in just 17 innings in those 12 games. That includes eight innings in their first game of the month.<\/p>\n
The last time they led by more than two runs was July 6, and they have led by more than one run for just three innings in the seven games since then.<\/p>\n
All that does is continue a trend that dates back to May in which Padres relief pitchers are under constant pressure.<\/p>\n
Pressure? Of the 59 times a Padres reliever has entered a game with a lead since May 16, that lead has been one run 47 times.<\/p>\n
Before yesterday, Padres relievers had made a total of 43 appearances in July. Of those, 14 came in games they led by one run and 11 came in tied games. And the bullpen had protected all those leads and kept all those ties.<\/p>\n
It finally cracked yesterday. Because it is inevitable a pitcher will eventually allow a run.<\/p>\n
You can read in my game story (here<\/a>) about what happened yesterday.<\/p>\n We have talked so so so so much about the Padres\u2019 offense in this space and in other stories. And I will write about it again before the start of the second half on Friday.<\/p>\n It seems that after nearly 100 games, we should understand the pitching is the strength of the team and might just have to carry it.<\/p>\n That is OK.<\/p>\n But it almost certainly cannot be like this.<\/p>\n Yesterday was the Padres\u2019 35th one-run game, fourth most in the major leagues. They have won 21 of those games, a .600 winning percentage that is fifth best in MLB.<\/p>\n They are 13-6 in games decided by two runs, which is the second-best such record in the majors.<\/p>\n Impressive. And unsustainable.<\/p>\n The Padres are fond of saying all they strive to do is score one more run than the other team each day. But privately, most people in the organization say pretty much the same thing when asked if the Padres can continue winning this way and keep their key relievers healthy.<\/p>\n That answer is something like, \u201cHell no.\u201d<\/p>\n Shildt would never say that.<\/p>\n But the quip he made the other night did give away his weariness.<\/p>\n Shildt spent several seconds praising his team for its ability to win on the margins, which is what it generally takes to win the types of games they are winning. Then he closed his thought by saying, \u201cBut it is legal to win 7-3 or 8-2.\u201d<\/p>\n The Padres have the major leagues\u2019 10th-best record and its 17th-highest run differential (plus-7).<\/p>\n For perspective on how rare the Padres\u2019 success is, consider that they are one of 13 teams since 1985 to start a season 52-44 or better while having a run differential equal to or lower than plus-7. Of the previous 12, six finished with at least 87 wins.<\/p>\n King progress<\/p>\n Part of the Padres\u2019 optimism about the second half centers on what happened in the bullpen yesterday morning.<\/p>\n Starting pitcher Michael King threw 35 pitches and reached 92 mph with his fastball in his second full-go bullpen session.<\/p>\n \u201cEverything felt good,\u201d he said afterward. \u201cSo now it\u2019s dad time.\u201d<\/p>\n King\u2019s wife, Sheila, will give birth to their first child in the next day or two.<\/p>\n It has not been determined yet whether King will join the Padres on the upcoming 10-game trip that follows the break. But the next step, probably coming at the end of the week, is expected to be an \u201cup-down\u201d in the bullpen.<\/p>\n (An up-down generally involves a pitcher throwing 20 or so pitches before resting and then throwing 20 or so more pitches to simulate working two innings.)<\/p>\n King has been out since mid-May with a nerve impingement near his right shoulder and is essentially in build-up mode. Since he did not have a tissue or ligament injury, there is not considered a risk of re-injury. His returning to action after the nerve resumed firing is a matter of building up his strength and endurance.<\/p>\n \u201cI say it\u2019s like spring training because I feel fully healthy and need to build,\u201d he said. \u201cBut it\u2019s definitely a more accelerated mode than that.\u201d<\/p>\n The anticipation is that King, who ranked sixth in the National League with a 2.59 ERA through his first 10 starts, will return in mid-August.<\/p>\n A catch<\/p>\n Luis Campusano was called up yesterday to replace Gavin Sheets on the active roster, as Sheets went on the paternity list.<\/p>\n Campusano arrived at the ballpark about two hours before yesterday\u2019s\u00a0 game and served as the Padres\u2019 designated hitter. It went about as well as any of his other games in the major leagues this season.<\/p>\n Rather than delve into the catcher situation and how Campusano might fit into it<\/a> for a third time, I will refer you to Tom Krasovic\u2019s column (here<\/a>) in which he addressed the Padres\u2019 backstop problem.<\/p>\n Some in the organization believe the aim should be for Campusano to get regular time in the lineup, and multiple sources indicated over the past week that chance will come after the break.<\/p>\n None of the people pushing for Campusano to get regular at-bats as one of the team\u2019s catchers is predicting he is the answer to their offensive woes at the position. But they contend the team owes it to him and to itself to see if he can help when given consistent at-bats.<\/p>\n Higher power<\/p>\n Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., whose seasons have run a somewhat similarly turbulent course, have been talking about things beyond their control.<\/p>\n So after the first of Merrill\u2019s two home runs Saturday, they shared a moment in the dugout.<\/p>\n Jackson Merrill celebrating down the dugout, capped off with a special handshake with fellow (formerly !?) slumper Fernando Tatis Jr pic.twitter.com\/WSYOcqsbSA<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 llocatiannation, we\u2019re back (@llocatiann) July 13, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n \u201cJust trusting God,\u201d Merrill said yesterday. \u201cThat\u2019s kind of where we were at, you know. I mean, it\u2019s out of our control at some points. You\u2019re going through a big slump. Trust God, that\u2019s kind of where we were at. \u2026 We weren\u2019t checked out. We\u2019re still checked in, focusing, trying our best. But we understand there\u2019s a certain point in the game where it\u2019s out of our control. Hitting balls 104 (mph) that are getting caught at the track. You gotta trust God that it\u2019s going to play out. And that\u2019s kind of where we were at.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/rundiff.png\")
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