As of Thursday morning, your leading point-getter among pending UFA players was \u2026 drumroll \u2026 Darren Raddysh!<\/p>\n
Good for Raddysh, an undrafted defenseman who has shown great determination in sticking with it and who, at age 30, is putting up a career-best NHL season, making the most of the best opportunity he\u2019s had. It\u2019s another example of how the Tampa Bay Lightning keep pushing their championship window open by finding gems in places other teams aren\u2019t looking.<\/p>\n
And given his current $975,000 salary-cap hit, his next contract is going to look a lot different, whether it\u2019s in Tampa or elsewhere. I\u2019m told there have been general discussions to date between the parties but nothing serious yet. We\u2019ll see whether Lightning GM Julien BriseBois decides to try right before the playoffs \u2014 when extensions sometimes happen \u2014 or waits until after the postseason is over. He told media in Tampa during his midseason availability in January that he wanted a bigger sample size before diving into extension talks.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think we\u2019re going to wait,\u201d BriseBois said on Jan. 8, \u201cnot because it\u2019s going to be a life-changing contract but because you look at his play the first year with us, his play last year, his play at the start of season, his play now \u2014 I\u2019m going to need a bigger sample size to know exactly how to value that going forward. I think ultimately that\u2019s what it comes down to. I don\u2019t know what that dollar sign looks like. I know I want the player to stay here. We love the guy. He bleeds blue, and he\u2019s helping us win.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n
Either way, Raddysh will finally get paid, there or elsewhere, and it\u2019s a nice story.<\/p>\n
But, and I say this with total respect to Raddysh, the fact that on Thursday morning, he was the leading scoring of the 2026 pending UFA July 1 class pretty much sums up the situation.<\/p>\n
Just one point behind was Alex Tuch of the Buffalo Sabres, and he\u2019s the biggest pending UFA remaining in the class. The escalating salary cap and recent contract comparables (Adrian Kempe, eight years, $10.63 million AAV) allow him, with justification, to ask for a double-digit salary in his next deal. And league sources confirm that Tuch\u2019s camp has done just that. On the other hand, Schmaltz\u2019s eight-year, $64 million deal actually helps the Sabres on the Tuch front. The players have similar numbers this season and it\u2019s clear Schmaltz took a bit less on the AAV to stay in Utah (although he could only get seven years on the open market, not eight. So the total dollars matter, too.<\/p>\n
But I would imagine the Sabres are going back to Tuch\u2019s camp, led by the Bartlett family, saying, \u201cSure, Kempe is a comparable, but so is Schmaltz.\u201d<\/p>\n
So a Tuch extension in Buffalo, perhaps, could land somewhere between $8 million and $10.63 million AAV.<\/p>\n
The difference in the Kempe and Schmaltz extensions is that the Kings were over a barrel with Kempe, given the pending retirement of Anze Kopitar. There\u2019s no way they could afford to lose Kempe as well. And it was clear Schmaltz wanted to stay put in what is becoming an amazing market to play in, in Utah.<\/p>\n
And as much as the Sabres want to keep Tuch, and they really do, they\u2019re pretty loaded up front and could pivot if they lose him. They\u2019re not over a barrel like the Kings were.<\/p>\n
As for an actual update on the Tuch negotiations, I checked into it on Thursday, and talks have not been shelved yet. There\u2019s still time before the playoffs next month, and the Sabres are still determined to make it work on an extension. We shall see. But at the very least, it\u2019s noteworthy that both sides are still communicating on it and that talks haven\u2019t been shelved yet.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a tough call for Tuch. The Sabres are finally happening; they\u2019re a legit contender after 14 years of hibernation. It\u2019s an amazing market to play in when things are like this. On the flip side, I could definitely see some teams being willing to pay $11 million a year on the open market because the cap is escalating, teams have money to spend and there\u2019s very little offense available on July 1 via UFAs this year.<\/p>\n
If you look at the list that our stats expert Dom Luszczyszyn put together on the pending UFA class, there certainly aren\u2019t a lot of high-impact guys, and especially not many under age 33.<\/p>\n
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The pending UFA defense market<\/p>\n
As thin as the high-end forward group is, there are still some notable defensemen among pending UFAs (beyond Raddysh), led by John Carlson, Rasmus Andersson and Jacob Trouba. But it\u2019s not a long list, either. And there\u2019s a decent chance neither Carlson nor Andersson will get to market.<\/p>\n
When Vegas traded for Andersson on Jan. 18, the assumption was that it wouldn\u2019t be that long before he was signed to an extension, like when Vegas traded for Noah Hanifin two years ago.<\/p>\n
But nearly two months after the Andersson trade, he still hasn\u2019t signed an extension.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s what I believe is probably happening: the Golden Knights can\u2019t actually extend him at the moment, per CBA rules. My understanding of the situation is that they currently only have $3.2 million in projected cap space for next season, which includes Alex Pietrangelo\u2019s $8.8 million cap hit. Vegas has the lowest 2026-27 projected cap space available currently among all 32 teams. And clearly an Andersson extension will cost more than $3.2 million per year.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s not a big deal. Eventually, Vegas will obviously be able to put Pietrangelo back on LTIR for next season and, on July 1, the salary cap officially jumps in a big way. Even before then, the Golden Knights could move money out after the season, in May or June, depending on how long they play this spring.<\/p>\n
The point is, they will eventually be able to extend Andersson, but they can\u2019t do it right now. That is my understanding of the CBA rules.<\/p>\n
Given that Vegas pursued Andersson, all the way back to last June in a failed trade attempt at the time with the Flames, there\u2019s too much history with the player not to have him extended at some point \u2014 when they can. Although it must be pointed out, Andersson has so far struggled to find his game in Vegas.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, let\u2019s see where it goes with Carlson. Anaheim did not give up the return that it did for a 36-year-old blueliner with the idea of him being only a rental.\u00a0My understanding is that the Ducks will eventually approach Carlson\u2019s camp, led by veteran agent Rick Curran, about what an extension looks like. But I also think everyone involved wants to wait until Carlson adjusts to his new surroundings and his family comes out and gets a sense of Anaheim, etc. There\u2019s still a month to go in the regular season, so there\u2019s lots of time still for a contract conversation before the playoffs start. But even if it waits until after the playoffs, there\u2019s also lots of time before July 1.<\/p>\n
If I had to guess, a two-year extension would make sense, and I think it would be $8 million to $9 million per year based on the impact Carlson still has. But again, the Ducks will wait for a while before diving in on that potential negotiation.<\/p>\n
League decision on Ottawa<\/p>\n