It\u2019s mid-March, the Olympic break and trade deadline are in the rear-view mirror, and the stretch run to the playoffs is well and truly on. Exactly one month from today, the NHL regular season will see its final night of action. Can you feel the pressure?<\/p>\n
Probably. But how much pressure you feel might vary based on which teams you care about, because in the NHL, not all pressure is created equal. Every team wants to succeed. But there\u2019s a difference between wanting and needing, and there\u2019s a difference between playing with house money and going all-in with your last dollar.<\/p>\n
So as we cross the threshold into the season\u2019s final month, let\u2019s have a look at the playoff bubble and rank the teams based purely on how much pressure they\u2019re under to make it. We\u2019re going to ignore the teams that are all but in, as well as the ones who\u2019d need a miracle. That leaves about ten teams that are truly on the fence. Here are the five that have the most to lose if they \u2026 well, lose.<\/p>\n
Bonus five: Playoff bubble teams under the most pressure<\/p>\n
5. Pittsburgh Penguins \u2013<\/strong> I went back and forth for this spot, and you could argue for teams like the Columbus Blue Jackets or Utah Mammoth instead. On one hand, nobody expected the Penguins to be here, so maybe just holding down a spot for this long is a win on its own. But on the other, this feels like a Last Dance sort of season for Sidney Crosby and friends<\/a>. And you can\u2019t dance if you\u2019re already at home when the music starts.<\/p>\n 4. Ottawa Senators \u2013 <\/strong>We\u2019ll get to the Sens in more detail down below, but right now they look like a team that\u2019s clearly playoff-worthy but might miss thanks to shaky goaltending and a bad winter stretch. Last year\u2019s first-round loss was supposed to be a learning experience, not a ceiling.<\/p>\n 3. Los Angeles Kings \u2013<\/strong> The whole Western wild-card race is a bit of a mess, and we\u2019ll get into that down below, too. But while the San Jose Sharks are one of those \u201cplaying with house money\u201d teams and the Seattle Kraken and Nashville Predators would be disappointed by a miss, the Kings would be devastated. After firing Rob Blake for not being able to get out of the first round, missing entirely would be a disaster \u2013 especially in Anze Kopitar\u2019s final season<\/a>.<\/p>\n 2. Detroit Red Wings \u2013 <\/strong>You can feel it slipping away. Five losses in their last six have seen the Wings drop to the wild-card, and they start the day in eighth place in the East and with a big target on their back. All those thinkpieces about how Steve Yzerman\u2019s patient rebuild was finally silencing the doubters may have been premature. And if they are, it\u2019s going to feel like a catastrophe in a wide-open division.<\/p>\n 1. Edmonton Oilers \u2013 <\/strong>The good news is that they\u2019re in the best shape of any of these teams, with our projections model having them at 83 percent. The bad news is that there\u2019s nowhere near the 100 percent it should be, especially given how weak the Pacific looks this year. After Stan Bowman made his big goaltending trade and then had a buyer\u2019s deadline, an early playoff exit would be a disaster. Missing entirely? Unforgivable, which is why the Oilers are the easy call for this spot.<\/p>\n On to this week\u2019s rankings\u2026<\/p>\n Road to the Cup<\/p>\n The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n So \u2026 are we allowed to talk about the Department of Player Safety being weird about the Toronto Maple Leafs<\/a> for pretty much the entire George Parros era, or is that still silly conspiracy talk that we roll our eyes at? Just let me know, I\u2019m good either way \u2014 it just felt like it was worth a quick check-in here.<\/p>\n 5. Buffalo Sabres (41-20-6, +31 true goals differential*) \u2013 <\/strong>Sure, what the hell.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve been knocking on the door for weeks now, and while we try not to overreact to short-term trends around here, we\u2019re into month four of this team being a wagon. That\u2019s not short-term. It may not be permanent, but that\u2019s not the standard here. The Sabres have earned a spot.<\/p>\n There\u2019s actually some risk that I\u2019m too late here and am buying high on a team that just lost in regulation to the Washington Capitals, needed a shootout to beat the Leafs at home, and now heads out on a tough western road wing. But with the Tampa Bay Lightning looking legitimately mediocre, the Sabres suddenly find themselves with a clear path to the division\u2019s top seed.<\/p>\n Whether they get there or not, the Sabres have been the league\u2019s most entertaining story. They deserve a toast. Let\u2019s all drink beers<\/a>.<\/p>\n 4. Minnesota Wild (38-18-12, +29) \u2013 <\/strong>Between Bill Guerin\u2019s comments and the sheer absurdity of the standings, this feels like the week where we hit a tipping point on the whole playoff format thing. And yeah, it\u2019s dumb, just like it\u2019s always been<\/a>. Will the league do anything about it? They didn\u2019t when it was teams like Winnipeg or Columbus in this sort of situation, but let\u2019s see.<\/p>\n 3. Carolina Hurricanes (42-18-6, +40) \u2013 <\/strong>The last week or so has seen them beat the playoff-bound Lightning and Penguins while losing to the St. Louis Blues and Calgary Flames, because hockey makes sense. They get the Penguins twice more this week, and Pittsburgh pretty much needs to take both in regulation to keep any mirage of suspense in the Metro.<\/p>\n 2. Dallas Stars (42-14-10, +54) \u2013 <\/strong>They just keep winning, with four straight in the bank heading into tonight\u2019s matchup with Utah. Their only recent loss was to the Avs on March 6, and that was in a shootout. Their last actual hockey loss was all the way back on Jan. 22. The race for top seed in the Central may not be over quite yet.<\/p>\n 1. Colorado Avalanche (44-12-9, +86) \u2013 <\/strong>Two more regulation losses this week, including one to the stumbling Jets. Wednesday night\u2019s showdown with Dallas suddenly looms as one of the bigger games of the year.<\/p>\n *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.<\/p>\n Not ranked: The West\u2019s final four \u2013 <\/strong>So we\u2019re down to four teams fighting for one spot in the Western Conference, right?<\/p>\n It sure seems like it, and not just because that\u2019s what all of The Athletic\u2019s experts think<\/a>. In our latest round of staff predictions, which dropped on Saturday, we had seven Western teams getting 100 percent support as playoff teams. (That would be: The Central\u2019s big three, then the Ducks, Knights and Oilers in the Pacific, plus the Mammoth as the first wild-card team.) Looking at the standings, it\u2019s tough to argue; there\u2019s just no way the Oilers or Knights would actually miss, and a six-point wild-card gap is a steep climb at this time of year.<\/p>\n That leaves one spot for four teams, barring some sort of late-season craziness from a team like the Jets or Blues. (And it\u2019s not like those two teams know anything about crazy finishes<\/a>.) The four contenders are the Kraken, Kings, Sharks and Predators. And \u2026 yeah, I have no idea.<\/p>\n Oh, don\u2019t get me wrong, I know who we\u2019re all rooting for. We\u2019ve seen the Kings lose in the first round for years now, the Kraken are a decent team that don\u2019t seem to really excite anyone, and the Predators are a reasonably fun story that still feels like a long shot.<\/p>\n The Sharks, on the other hand, have emerged as one of the league\u2019s must-watch teams. They\u2019ve got Macklin Celebrini, plus other players who occasionally do stuff like this<\/a>. Hey, remember when Celebrini was playing on a line with Nathan MacKinnon in the Olympics? How about those two taking the opening faceoff in a playoff series? Yes please.<\/p>\n The Sharks were our staff pick, but with only 40 percent of the vote. The Kings (32 percent), Kraken (20 percent) and Predators (8 percent) divided up the rest. That stands in contrast to the model, which had the Kings as the favorite with a 57 percent chance.<\/p>\n Why the discrepancy? Part of it\u2019s probably a combination of wishful thinking and boredom at seeing the Kings as first-round fodder year after year. The trade deadline probably shifted perceptions, too, with the Kings being the rare team that seemed to be actively buying and selling at the same time. They added Artemi Panarin but lost Warren Foegele, and Kevin Fiala is out for the rest of the season. Is that enough of an upgrade to move the needle? Not everyone seems to think so.<\/p>\n The Kraken had been holding a spot down for most of the year before a recent stretch of four straight regulation losses decimated their chances; Saturday\u2019s win over the lowly Canucks felt like a season-saver. The Predators had been the opposite, looking like they were in the running for dead last before climbing back into the race.<\/p>\n How will it all shake out? It should be fun to find out. Just try not to make it too obvious which team you\u2019re rooting for.<\/p>\n The bottom five<\/p>\n The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a shot at Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.<\/p>\n We got an absolute must-read over the weekend from Scott and Other Sean on Gavin McKenna\u2019s second half and what it means heading into the draft<\/a>. That includes his off-the-ice assault charge, his dip from consensus top pick to merely in the mix, and some impressive recent production.<\/p>\n 5. St. Louis Blues (27-30-10, -43) \u2013 <\/strong>They were a disaster all year and sold big at the deadline, so of course they\u2019re heating up now<\/a>. Yesterday\u2019s regulation loss to the Jets was a huge slump-buster \u2014 you\u2019ve got to nip those bad habits in the bud.<\/p>\n 4. New York Rangers (28-30-8, -19) \u2013 <\/strong>Speaking of bad teams getting hot, the Rangers\u2019 four-game win streak might be the biggest news of this section. On the playoff side, it creates some serious spoiler potential for upcoming matchups against teams like the Kings, Blue Jackets and Senators. And on the lottery side, it could open the door to teams like the Leafs and Devils.<\/p>\n 3. Chicago Blackhawks (25-30-11, -36) \u2013 <\/strong>They\u2019ve got the Wild twice and then the Avalanche this week, which will at least provide a solid measuring stick of how far they have to go. In other news: Tyler Bertuzzi, still weird<\/a>.<\/p>\n 2. Calgary Flames (26-33-7, -41) \u2013 <\/strong>The Flames scored well on our annual Tank Index<\/a> thanks to a busy deadline of selling. But the Canucks are long gone for 32nd, so at this point it\u2019s about defending those second-best lottery odds the rest of the way.<\/p>\n 1. Vancouver Canucks (20-38-8, -78) \u2013 <\/strong>Canucks fans, where are you at with Adam Foote? Is he going to be the rare one-and-done, or has this miserable season been all part of a process?<\/p>\n Not ranked: Ottawa Senators \u2013<\/strong> Any team can add a first-round pick at the trade deadline. It takes a really talented front office to pull it off the week after.<\/p>\n The Senators managed\u00a0to get their own forfeited pick back from the NHL last week, presumably because\u00a0the league reads my stuff<\/a> and enjoys making it immediately out of date. As was strongly hinted at in that piece, this outcome always felt like a decent possibility, given the NHL had already set the precedent by backing off on the Devils\u2019 similar punishment a decade ago. To be clear, the Senators aren\u2019t getting their exact pick back, but rather will pick 32nd while paying a fine<\/a>. Still, it\u2019s a pretty clear win for Ottawa.<\/p>\n Now the question is how many more wins they can bank down the stretch, because they need all they can get. The Senators came into the weekend as a literal coin flip to make the playoffs, sitting at 50 percent in our projections. But that number hit 53 percent this morning after a pair of home wins over the Ducks and Sharks, the latter of which moved them to three points back of a wild-card.<\/p>\n