The seven basin states, including Colorado, are in high-stakes negotiations over how to manage the basin\u2019s water after 2026. One of the biggest impasses has been how to cut water use in the basin\u2019s driest years.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t reduce what doesn\u2019t come down the stream. And that\u2019s the reality we\u2019re faced with,\u201d Commissioner Gene Shawcroft of Utah said in the statement. \u201cThe only way we\u2019re going to achieve a successful outcome is if we\u2019re willing to work together \u2014 and not just protect our own interests.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lake Powell, located on the Utah-Arizona border, collects water from Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, part of Arizona and tribal reservations in the Colorado River\u2019s Upper Basin. Glen Canyon Dam releases the reservoir\u2019s water downstream to Lake Mead, Native American tribes, Mexico, and Lower Basin states, including Arizona, California and Nevada.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfa7 Listen here!<\/p>\n
Go deeper into this story in this episode of The Daily Sun-Up podcast. <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n Subscribe: <\/strong>Apple<\/a> | Spotify<\/a> | RSS<\/a><\/p>\n Lake Powell and Lake Mead make up about 92% of the reservoir storage capacity in the entire Colorado River Basin.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Bureau of Reclamation\u2019s July report, called a 24-month study<\/a>, shows the potential for Lake Powell to decline below two critical elevations: 3,525 feet and 3,490 feet.\u00a0<\/p>\n It could drop below 3,525 feet in April 2026, which would prompt emergency drought response actions. That\u2019s in the most probable scenario, but the federal agency also considers drier and wetter forecast scenarios. The dry forecast shows that the reservoir\u2019s water levels would fall below this elevation as soon as January.<\/p>\n Lake Powell would have to fall below 3,490 feet in order to halt power generation.<\/p>\n Planning for emergency water releases<\/strong><\/p>\n In 2021 and 2022, officials leapt into crisis management mode and released water from upstream reservoirs \u2014 including Blue Mesa, Colorado\u2019s largest reservoir \u2014 to stabilize Lake Powell\u2019s water levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n The emergency releases prompted<\/a> some concerns about recreation at Blue Mesa.<\/p>\n The July 24-month study triggered planning for potential emergency releases, called drought response operations, at Lake Powell, and Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo reservoirs, said Chuck Cullom, executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe Upper Division States and Reclamation have been monitoring the risks to Lake Powell since January 2025 due to the declining snowpack and runoff, and are prepared to take appropriate actions as conditions evolve through 2025 and spring of 2026,\u201d he said in an email to The Colorado Sun.<\/p>\n At-risk hydropower<\/strong><\/p>\n Hydroelectric power generation takes a hit with lower water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead.\u00a0<\/p>\n Reclamation\u2019s dry conditions forecast says Lake Powell could fall below 3,490 feet by December 2026, and Lake Mead\u2019s water level could fall below a key elevation, 1,035 feet, by May 2027. At that point, Hoover Dam would have to turn off several turbines and its power production would be significantly reduced, said Eric Kuhn, a Colorado water expert.\u00a0<\/p>\n In more typical or unusually wet forecasts, neither reservoir would fall below these critical elevations in the next two years, according to the report.<\/p>\n Lake Powell and other federal reservoirs provide a cheap and consistent source of renewable energy. Without that, electricity providers would have to look to other, more expensive sources of energy or nonrenewable supplies. Some of those costs can get handed down to customers in their monthly utility bills.<\/p>\n Glen Canyon\u2019s hydropower is normally pooled with other power sources to serve customers in Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas and Utah. Its power generation has already been impacted: Fourteen of the lowest generation years<\/a> at the dam have occurred since 2000.<\/p>\n A strong monsoon season this summer could help elevate the water levels in the major reservoirs, as could a heavy winter snowpack in the mountains this coming winter.<\/p>\n \u201cIf next year is below average, then we\u2019re setting ourselves up for some very difficult decisions in the basin,\u201d said Kuhn, former general manager of the Colorado River District and author of \u201cScience Be Dammed<\/a>,\u201d a book about the perils of ignoring science in Western water management.\u00a0<\/p>\n An interstate legal mire<\/strong><\/p>\n Kuhn has also been tracking the releases from Lake Powell with big, interstate legal questions in mind.\u00a0<\/p>\n If the river\u2019s flow falls below a 10-year total of about 82.5 million acre-feet, it could trigger a legal mire. In that scenario, the Lower Basin could argue that the Upper Basin would be required to send more water downstream in compliance with the foundational agreement, the 1922 Colorado River Compact<\/a>.<\/p>\n Some Upper Basin lawyers disagree about the terms of when states, like Colorado, would be required to send more water downstream. That\u2019s a big concern for water users, including farmers and ranchers, who say they already don\u2019t have enough water in dry years.<\/p>\n From 2017 to 2026, the 10-year cumulative flow is expected to be about 83 million acre-feet, Kuhn said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re OK through 2026,\u201d Kuhn said. \u201cBut under the most probable and minimum probable (forecasts), it\u2019s almost a certainty that the flow will drop below 82.5.\u201d<\/p>\n Lake Powell\u2019s ecosystems feel the strain<\/strong><\/p>\n Bridget Deemer, a research ecologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, keeps her eye on how lower water levels impact ecosystems in Lake Powell.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Lake-Powell_SM-01-1200x800.jpg\")
Markers on the side of Glen Canyon Dam near the Utah-Arizona border show the water level of Lake Powell, which sat at about 3,570 feet on Dec. 18, 2023. That elevation could fall as low as 3,525 feet within the next two years. (Shannon Mullane, The Colorado Sun)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/IMG_4767-1200x675.jpg\")
Eight of the commercial generators in the Nevada Powerhouse at the Hoover Dam, as seen April 12, 2025. There are 17 generators total at the dam, and the power goes to more than 1 million people in the Colorado River Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California. These are the tops of the generators on the Nevada side. (David Krause, The Colorado Sun)<\/p>\n