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Forecast Timing<\/p>\nFlorida will see rounds of rain this week, bringing some much-needed relief to parts of the drought-stricken state. Rain is an unusual feature for the Sunshine State in April and May \u2013 typically the middle of the state’s dry season.<\/p>\n
However, some places could see too much – too quickly, bringing a flood threat to millions.<\/p>\n
Happening Now<\/p>\n
Rainfall has spread across much of the Florida Peninsula and will continue through the next couple of days. Some of the rainbands could be intense and bring pockets of flooding.<\/p>\n
Forecast Timing<\/p>\n
The first round of rain moved through yesterday as a cold front stalled out over the state. Some parts of the state picked up 2 to 5 inches of rain Monday, particularly between Vero Beach and Daytona Beach.<\/p>\n
Flood watches are in effect for much of the east coast of the peninsula through Wednesday night.<\/p>\n
These locally heavy downpours will be enhanced by a pair of upper-level disturbances drifting over the state from the Gulf as the stationary front hangs out.<\/p>\n
This setup should remain in place through Thursday.<\/p>\n
Fortunately, the majority of the rain will wrap up by Friday, so any weekend or spring break plans won\u2019t be impacted.<\/p>\n
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The main factor of the rainfall for Florida. A stalled frontal boundary, enhanced by upper disturbances, will bring rainfall that will last into Thursday.<\/p>\n
How Much More Rain?<\/p>\n
The highest totals are expected across the eastern coastline of Florida through Friday, where flood watches have been issued in the green areas in the graphic below, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach.<\/p>\n
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Widespread additional amounts over an inch are expected generally from Daytona Beach and the Space Coast to the Everglades. But should slow-moving storms move over the same areas, we could see isolated totals over 5 inches.<\/p>\n
Some places could see rapid rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Flooding is possible, especially in urban areas.<\/p>\n
Lighter additional amounts are expected, in general, on the West Coast, and little or no additional rain is expected in the Florida Panhandle.<\/p>\n
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Much Needed Relief<\/p>\n
Florida is in one of its worst droughts this century. The state is in the highest extreme drought, or a D3 of 4, in over the last 25 years, according to the US Drought Monitor. Note that in January 2000 and December 2011, there was a higher amount of the exceptional drought, or a D4 of 4.<\/p>\n
Tallahassee, Florida, has only seen 6.66 inches of rainfall this year. Their average year-to-date for this time of year is more than double that at over 14 inches. Cities like Jacksonville, Orlando and Daytona Beach are all running well below average as well.<\/p>\n
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Data: USDA, NDMC, NOAA<\/p>\n
Drought-stricken soil doesn\u2019t handle fast rainfall very well. It needs steady rain to be able to chip away at the drought. Should rain fall too quickly, it just leads to runoff and eventually flooding.<\/p>\n
At least two feet of rain is needed to completely wipe out the drought over the next three months, or over 40 inches by the end of the rainy season, which arrives in October.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s to hoping that the rainfall is widespread and that rates remain at levels where the soil can actually benefit from the rain.<\/p>\n