{"id":723983,"date":"2026-04-13T02:10:55","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T02:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/723983\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T02:10:55","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T02:10:55","slug":"heres-what-it-means-for-houston","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/723983\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s what it means for Houston"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">The first major <a href=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/Hurricane\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/Hurricane\/\">hurricane<\/a> outlook of the season is here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">Researchers at Colorado State University released their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast this morning, something they do every year ahead of the June 1 start of the season. And historically, CSU has a strong track record when it comes to getting the overall activity level right.<\/p>\n<p><b>The numbers<\/b> <\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">CSU is forecasting:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 kDvXdO font_openSans articleList\">\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p><b>13 named storms<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p><b>6 hurricanes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p><b>2 major hurricanes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">For context, an average Atlantic season produces:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 kDvXdO font_openSans articleList\">\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p><b>14 named storms<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p><b>7 hurricanes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p><b>3 major hurricanes<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">So this year is shaping up to be <b>slightly below average<\/b> overall.<\/p>\n<p>Hurricane Prediction<b>Why this season looks the way it does<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">Two big factors are driving this forecast: warm sea-surface temperatures and a developing El Ni\u00f1o. Warmer water typically supports a more active season, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/El_Nino\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/El_Nino\/\">El Ni\u00f1<\/a>o usually suppresses tropical activity. That tug-of-war is why this season is expected to land <b>around average (or slightly below)<\/b> instead of extremely active.<\/p>\n<p><b>Warm sea-surface temperatures:<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">Right now, ocean temperatures across the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/Gulf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/Gulf\/\">Gulf<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/Atlantic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.click2houston.com\/topic\/Atlantic\/\">Atlantic<\/a> are running above average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">That matters because:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 kDvXdO font_openSans articleList\">\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p>Warm water is fuel for hurricanes<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p>It helps storms develop faster and strengthen more easily<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Warm sea-surface temperatures<b>Potential El Ni\u00f1o influence <\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">At the same time, we\u2019re watching the potential development of El Ni\u00f1o later in the season.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">El Ni\u00f1o tends to:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 kDvXdO font_openSans articleList\">\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p>Increase wind shear over the Atlantic<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p>Disrupt storm organization<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__StackBase-sc-1fnzlkn-7 ecGWWE iQviKm\">\n<p>Make it harder for hurricanes to strengthen and form<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>El Nino Tropical Impacts<b>What matters most for Houston<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">Even if the season ends up quiet overall\u2026 that does not mean Houston is in the clear.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">A perfect example is the 1983 Atlantic hurricane season. That year, we saw only 4 named storms all season, making it the least active season of the satellite era (since 1966). That year, there was only one major hurricane, but that hurricane was Hurricane Alicia<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">Hurricane Alicia made landfall near Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane that caused billions of dollars in damage across SE Texas and left hundreds of thousands without power.<\/p>\n<p>1983 Hurricane Season<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 bYFsJw cuqaEv article-text\">So forecasts like this are great for understanding the big picture, but they only tell you how busy the entire Atlantic basin might be. They don\u2019t tell you where storms will go. And for Houston, history is clear: it only takes one storm.<\/p>\n<p>Anthony&#8217;s Weather Lab<\/p>\n<p class=\"dist__Box-sc-1fnzlkn-0 dist__TextBase-sc-1fnzlkn-3 kiwhtN\">More Stories Like This In Our Email Newsletter<\/p>\n<p>Copyright 2026 by KPRC Click2Houston &#8211; All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The first major hurricane outlook of the season is here. Researchers at Colorado State University released their 2026&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":723984,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5130],"tags":[97754,4345,5522,85971,2692,298888,358,24007,3187],"class_list":["post-723983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-houston","tag-el-nino","tag-houston","tag-hurricane","tag-hurricane-forecast","tag-hurricanes","tag-super-el-nino","tag-texas","tag-tropics","tag-tx"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116394975893407830","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/723983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=723983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/723983\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/723984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=723983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=723983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=723983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}