{"id":730923,"date":"2026-04-16T00:43:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T00:43:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/730923\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T00:43:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T00:43:43","slug":"one-week-into-the-ceasefire-is-the-end-of-the-iran-war-any-closer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/730923\/","title":{"rendered":"One week into the ceasefire, is the end of the Iran war any closer?"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s been one week since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire<\/a> in hopes of negotiating a permanent end to the war that has engulfed the Middle East since late February.<\/p>\n

So is the conflict over yet? Not quite. But there\u2019s been some movement since hostilities were put on hold.<\/p>\n

Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan on Saturday for the United States\u2019 first direct meeting with Iran in more than a decade. Officials from Israel and Lebanon met in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. The Strait of Hormuz \u2014 the critical oil shipping route that\u2019s taken center stage since Iran blocked it off at the start of the conflict \u2014 has become an even bigger sticking point. And the global economic picture is looking gloomier as a result.<\/p>\n

But President Trump expressed optimism that a deal to end the war was in reach. He told the New York Post on Tuesday<\/a> that additional U.S.-Iran peace talks \u201ccould be happening over the next two days\u201d in Islamabad.<\/p>\n

“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl<\/a> in a separate phone interview.<\/p>\n

In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday<\/a>, Trump claimed that China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran amid reports Beijing has weighed transfers of arms to Tehran.<\/p>\n

And in a sit-down interview with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo, which was taped on Tuesday and aired on Wednesday, Trump said he thinks the Iran war is \u201cclose to over\u201d and \u201ccan be over very soon.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will end soon,\u201d the president said.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s everything you need to know to catch up.<\/p>\n

Are the U.S. and Iran making progress in peace talks?<\/p>\n

Over the weekend, Vance and U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent 21 hours in Islamabad pushing for a peace deal with their Iranian counterparts. When they left, Vance tersely announced that the two sides had not reached an agreement because Tehran had \u201cchosen not to accept our terms.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve made very clear what our red lines are,\u201d Vance said at the time. \u201cWe need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that will enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump insisted he was fine with that outcome. Iran\u2019s \u201cmilitary is gone,\u201d he told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Sunday, and \u201ctheir missiles are largely depleted.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t care if they come back [to the negotiating table] or not,\u201d the president added. \u201cIf they don\u2019t come back, I\u2019m fine.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Men<\/p>\n

Men walk past the remnants of a building in Tehran on April 14.<\/p>\n

(Majid Saeedi\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

But since then, reports have suggested that Tehran and Washington may not be as far apart on nukes as it originally seemed. According to the New York Times<\/a>, the U.S. is no longer insisting that Iran end its nuclear program forever. Instead, Vance and his team \u201cproposed a 20-year \u2018suspension\u2019 of all nuclear activity\u201d along with the removal of \u201c970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium from the country, to ensure it could never be diverted to a bomb project.\u201d<\/p>\n

In response, Iran \u201crenewed a proposal that it suspend nuclear activity for up to five years\u201d and offered to \u201cdilute\u201d its fuel stockpile \u201csignificantly so that it could not be used to produce a nuclear weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n

The fact that the U.S. is now discussing a time period for suspending nuclear activity \u2014 rather than insisting it come to a permanent stop \u2014 \u201csuggests that there may well be room for a deal,\u201d as the Times explained.<\/p>\n

There are elements at play here: Tehran is also demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, payment of war reparations and a ceasefire in Lebanon, according to Iranian state TV and officials. But the nuclear issue is the toughest, and if Trump can get the Iranians to agree to something he can sell as a \u201cbetter\u201d deal than the one struck by the Obama administration in 2015 \u2014 a deal he scuttled during his first term \u2014 then he may very well accept it.<\/p>\n

Speaking to the New York Post on Tuesday, Trump pushed back on the idea of a 20-year moratorium. \u201cI\u2019ve been saying they can\u2019t have nuclear weapons,\u201d he said, \u201cso I don\u2019t like the 20 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t want [Iran] to feel like they have a win,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

But the president confirmed reports that Pakistan is working to organize a second round of direct negotiations this week.<\/p>\n

\u201cSomething could be happening over the next two days,\u201d Trump said.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, Axios reported<\/a> that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were continuing to make progress \u2014 \u201cmoving closer to a framework agreement to end the war\u201d through phone calls, draft proposals and backchannel communications. Axios reported that the current ceasefire could be extended to accommodate a possible agreement, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that was \u201cnot true at this moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed?<\/p>\n

When Trump announced the ceasefire last Tuesday, he wrote on social media that it was \u201csubject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz\u201d for two weeks.<\/p>\n

But hours later, Iranian state media said Tehran had turned some tankers away and \u201cfully closed\u201d the strait again. Confusion ensued. Iran seemed to have stopped laying mines and attacking vessels, and the regime said it would allow for safe passage if ships coordinated with the country\u2019s armed forces to avoid existing mines.<\/p>\n

\"Three<\/p>\n

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, on March 11.<\/p>\n

(Stringer\/Reuters)<\/p>\n

At the same time, however, Tehran insisted that if the strait were to fully reopen, Israel must stop bombarding the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon \u2014 a contentious issue that threatens to derail the ceasefire. The regime also demanded formal control over Hormuz going forward, with a reported toll of $2 million per vessel.<\/p>\n

When talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, Trump decided to counter with a blockade of his own. \u201cEffective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,\u201d Trump posted Sunday on social media<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cTheir promise was that they were going to open the Hormuz strait,\u201d Trump told reporters later that day. \u201cThey didn\u2019t do it. They lied.\u201d<\/p>\n

The idea of a U.S. naval blockade is simple: If Iran won\u2019t let other ships carrying cargo from other countries cross the strait, then ships carrying Iranian cargo can\u2019t cross, either. The goal is to increase economic pressure on the regime in order to force concessions at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

U.S. warships around the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

(Yasin Demirci\/Anadolu via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

But in practice, the picture is a lot murkier. According to the New York Times, tracking data showed<\/a> that several ships had passed through the strait before and after Trump\u2019s Monday morning deadline \u2014 some of which \u201chad departed from Iran, were carrying Iranian products or were under U.S. government sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Late Tuesday, the U.S. military said that its blockade \u201chas been fully implemented\u201d and that U.S. forces \u201chave completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the first 24 hours, six vessels turned around after being issued warnings, according to U.S. officials.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, U.S. Central Command said\u00a0that no commercial vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports had evaded the U.S. naval blockade in its first 48 hours. Kpler, a maritime data company, noted in a report<\/a> that several vessels seemed to stop or slow down after exiting the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, \u201cwhich may reflect the deterrent effect of the blockade.\u201d<\/p>\n

In response, Iran threatened to halt all trade in the region. \u201cIran\u2019s powerful armed forces will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea,\u201d the major general who oversees Iran\u2019s army and Revolutionary Guards told state media. It\u2019s unclear how Iran plans to enforce this threat.<\/p>\n

What about Israel and Lebanon?<\/p>\n

As Israel\u2019s military campaign in Lebanon continued to threaten the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the two countries\u2019 ambassadors to the U.S. gathered in Washington on Tuesday for talks about how to bring \u201ca permanent end to 20 or 30 years of Hezbollah influence,\u201d in the words of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.<\/p>\n

It was a rare meeting between two countries that have been at odds for decades and do not have diplomatic relations. Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group in Lebanon, have flared up intermittently since 1982. Hezbollah launched several rockets into northern Israel after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. Israel has been conducting retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon ever since.<\/p>\n

\"U.S.<\/p>\n

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the State Department in Washington, D.C, on April 14.<\/p>\n

(Andrew Harnik\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Yet Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter struck a positive note after the meeting, saying both sides are \u201cunited in liberating Lebanon\u201d from Iranian influence. \u201cWe discovered today that we are on the same side of the equation,\u201d Leiter said. He also told Israeli reporters that the Lebanese government had expressed a \u201cstrong desire\u201d to fully disarm Hezbollah.<\/p>\n

Prospects for peace remain somewhat remote. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted in recent days that a ceasefire with Hezbollah is not on the table \u2014 and statements from the Israeli military on Tuesday suggested that its campaign in southern Lebanon was continuing in full force. Both the U.S. and Israel have said that the current ceasefire with Iran does not apply to Israel\u2019s war with Hezbollah.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a process, not an event,\u201d Rubio said at the start of Tuesday\u2019s talks, which he attended. \u201cAll of the complexities of this matter are not going to be resolved in the next six hours.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, after the meeting, Israel and Lebanon praised the \u201cproductive discussions\u201d between their ambassadors and agreed to \u201claunch direct negotiations\u201d in the days ahead.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, the New York Times reported<\/a> that Israel is considering a short-term ceasefire in Lebanon. Two Israeli officials said the pause \u201ccould begin as early as Thursday and last about a week.\u201d But there is no guarantee that Hezbollah would honor a ceasefire brokered by the Israeli and Lebanese governments.<\/p>\n

Are oil and gas prices going down yet?<\/p>\n

After weekend peace talks broke down and Trump announced his own Hormuz blockade, oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel \u2014 then dipped slightly as the possibility of more talks emerged.<\/p>\n

As of Wednesday, the U.S. average gas price has fallen a few cents from recent highs to $4.11 a gallon. But experts say that prewar, $3 gas is unlikely to return<\/a> anytime this year. Even Trump predicted on Sunday that gas prices could be \u201cthe same, or maybe a little bit higher<\/a>\u201d by November\u2019s midterm elections.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned in a new report released on Tuesday that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession this year. In its best-case scenario \u2014 a quick end to the war \u2014 the IMF said global growth would slow from 3.4% to 3.1%, while oil prices would rise by more than 21%. In its worst-case scenario, global growth would plummet to 2.4% and inflation would soar to 6%.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,\u201d Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF\u2019s chief economist, wrote in the report. \u201cThe downside risks are tremendous.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s been one week since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in hopes of negotiating…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":730924,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5],"tags":[10321,83,99,13192,50,16363,1807,5503,2053,103],"class_list":["post-730923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world","tag-ceasefire","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-lebanon","tag-news","tag-nuclear-weapon","tag-president-trump","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-tehran","tag-world"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116411617299091146","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=730923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730923\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/730924"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=730923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=730923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=730923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}