{"id":73684,"date":"2025-07-18T21:37:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T21:37:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/73684\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T21:37:20","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T21:37:20","slug":"inflation-outlook-when-economist-sees-the-most-damage-from-trumps-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/73684\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Outlook: When Economist Sees the Most Damage From Trump&#8217;s Tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>                      <img src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/687a4a1a85e81483682e427c\"   alt=\"President Donald Trump\" decoding=\"sync\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                      Kevin Dietsch\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>                    2025-07-18T14:47:55Z<\/p>\n<p>                            Share<\/p>\n<p>                          Facebook<br \/>\n                                <a class=\"dropdown-item label-md\" data-email=\"\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Here's when a top economist says the US will see the most damage from Trump's tariffs&amp;body=Here's%20when%20a%20top%20economist%20says%20the%20US%20will%20see%20the%20most%20damage%20from%20Trump's%20tariffs%0D%0A%0D%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Finflation-trump-tariffs-impact-prices-stagflation-us-economy-slok-apollo-2025-7&amp;\" title=\"Email\" aria-label=\"Click to email\" data-utm-term=\"\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;click_url&quot;:&quot;mailto:?subject=Here's when a top economist says the US will see the most damage from Trump's tariffs&amp;body=Here's%20when%20a%20top%20economist%20says%20the%20US%20will%20see%20the%20most%20damage%20from%20Trump's%20tariffs%0D%0A%0D%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Finflation-trump-tariffs-impact-prices-stagflation-us-economy-slok-apollo-2025-7&amp;&quot;,&quot;share_type&quot;:&quot;email&quot;,&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;}\"><\/p>\n<p>                          Email<br \/>\n                        <\/a>        <\/p>\n<p>                          X<\/p>\n<p>                          LinkedIn<\/p>\n<p>                          Copy link<\/p>\n<p>                          lighning bolt icon<br \/>\n                          An icon in the shape of a lightning bolt.<\/p>\n<p>                          Impact Link<\/p>\n<p>                      Save<br \/>\n                      Saved<\/p>\n<p>                <a class=\"d-md-none app-button\" data-app-button=\"\" data-only-on=\"mobile\" data-component-type=\"app-button\" data-load-strategy=\"exclude\" title=\"Download the app\" aria-label=\"Click to download the app\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/insider-app.onelink.me\/4cpG\/?af_js_web=true&amp;af_ss_ver=2_3_0&amp;af_dp=insider%3A%2F%2Fbi%2Fpost%2Finflation-trump-tariffs-impact-prices-stagflation-us-economy-slok-apollo-2025-7&amp;af_force_deeplink=true&amp;is_retargeting=true&amp;deep_link_value=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Finflation-trump-tariffs-impact-prices-stagflation-us-economy-slok-apollo-2025-7&amp;pid=businessinsider&amp;c=post_page_share_bar_v2_smart_4.13.23\" data-track-view=\"{&quot;subscription_experience&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;}\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;app_cta&quot;,&quot;click_text&quot;:&quot;read_in_app&quot;,&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;sharebar&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><\/p>\n<p>                    Read in app<\/p>\n<p>                <\/a>      <\/p>\n<p>              This story is available exclusively to Business Insider<br \/>\n                subscribers. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/subscription\" class=\"subscription-link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Become an Insider<\/a><br \/>\n                and start reading now.<br \/>\n              Have an account? Log in.<\/p>\n<p>Apollo&#8217;s chief economist says the most damage from <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/companies-raising-prices-increases-trump-tariffs-2025\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Donald Trump&#8217;s trade war<\/a> will be felt in the economy sometime around the end of the year. <\/p>\n<p>Torsten Sl\u00f8k said he thinks that the sweeping <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/trump-liberation-day-reciprocal-tariffs-speech-2025-4\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">tariffs<\/a> the president announced this year will push prices higher until inflation reaches a peak in November or December.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to Bloomberg this week, Sl\u00f8k pointed to consensus inflation expectations, which show <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/personal-finance\/investing\/what-causes-inflation\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">inflation<\/a> rising through the last two months of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation, meanwhile, is already starting to &#8220;lift-off&#8221; in consumer goods, he said. The latest <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/inflation-june-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2025-7\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">consumer price index<\/a> report showed that prices for durables grew 0.7% year-over-year in June, the second-straight month of growth after more than two years of annualized declines. The headline number also drifted higher, hitting 2.7%, from 2.4% in May. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Services inflation, which accounts for 60% of the CPI, will likely take off soon as well, Sl\u00f8k said. He pointed to the impact of <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/trump-mass-deportation-immigraiton-plan-federal-reserve-inflation-2024-9\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Trump&#8217;s mass deportations<\/a> on wage growth, which raises employment costs for businesses and can cause prices to rise as well.<\/p>\n<p>                      Related stories<\/p>\n<p>                                <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy-image \" viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/placeholder.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                            Business Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know<\/p>\n<p>                                <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy-image \" viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/placeholder.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                            Business Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;They need to wait to see the peak. And we have really only had the take-off stage,&#8221; he said of the Fed and inflation<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Hotter inflation spells bad news on two fronts, Sl\u00f8k said:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The Fed is unlikely to <\/strong><a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/jobs-report-fed-rate-cuts-bond-yields-stocks-interest-rates-2025-7\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>cut interest rates<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>Central bankers will want to assess the peak damage from Trump&#8217;s tariffs before loosening monetary policy more meaningfully, he said.<\/li>\n<li><strong>It could be the start of a <\/strong><a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/america-economy-stagflation-recession-high-inflation-unemployment-stock-market-crash-2025-4\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>stagflation<\/strong><\/a><strong> shock.<\/strong> In a previous note to clients, Sl\u00f8k said he believed the US was already beginning to see a <a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/stagflation-worse-than-recession-outlook-inflation-economy-growth-fed-rates-2025-3\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">stagflation shock<\/a>, a situation where inflation rises while economic growth slows. Economists have described stagflation as one of the worst-case scenarios for the economy, as the Fed can&#8217;t cut rates to boost economic growth without fanning inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a target=\"_self\" class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/stagflation-recession-us-economy-inflation-unemployment-outlook-apollo-torsten-slok-2025-6\" data-track-click=\"{&quot;element_name&quot;:&quot;body_link&quot;,&quot;event&quot;:&quot;tout_click&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;,&quot;product_field&quot;:&quot;bi_value_unassigned&quot;}\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Stagflation<\/a> could cause GDP growth in 2025 could more than halve from its peak last year, Sl\u00f8k estimated in a recent whitepaper. Inflation could also remain around 3% throughout 2025, while the unemployment rate could rise over the next two years, he predicted, based on where tariffs stood in June.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kevin Dietsch\/Getty Images 2025-07-18T14:47:55Z Share Facebook Email X LinkedIn Copy link lighning bolt icon An icon in the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":73685,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,4381,51469,79,265,51466,4155,45179,9105,51468,16361,2503,13331,75,51467,277,67,132,68,1628],"class_list":{"0":"post-73684","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-business-insider","10":"tag-economist","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-growth","13":"tag-inflation-outlook","14":"tag-june","15":"tag-mass-deportation","16":"tag-month","17":"tag-most-damage","18":"tag-november","19":"tag-peak","20":"tag-price","21":"tag-tariff","22":"tag-torsten-slok","23":"tag-trump","24":"tag-united-states","25":"tag-unitedstates","26":"tag-us","27":"tag-year"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114876399189320308","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73684\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}