{"id":772483,"date":"2026-05-04T11:40:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T11:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/772483\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T11:40:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T11:40:19","slug":"scouting-3-potential-mlb-draft-first-rounders-at-mississippi-arkansas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/772483\/","title":{"rendered":"Scouting 3 potential MLB Draft first-rounders at Mississippi-Arkansas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Arkansas lefty Hunter Dietz came into this year with 1 2\/3 total career innings as a Razorback, spread over two years and four appearances. He also pitched 11 innings on the Cape last summer, where he walked 12 batters and posted an 8.49 ERA. He wasn\u2019t exactly on my radar for the first round back in February, or even early March, but given what he\u2019s done this year and what he showed on Friday night at Baum-Walker, I\u2019d be surprised if he got out of the top half of the round.<\/p>\n<p>Dietz sat 94-96 mph through five innings against Mississippi, punching out the first three batters just for emphasis, with three distinct breaking pitches in a slider, cutter and curveball, varying the shapes on each. All three have whiff rates over 50 percent on the season, with the cutter at 85-88 mph the best of the three on Friday with sharp break in both planes. The slider gets a little slurvy at the lower end of its velocity range and runs into that curveball, but I think they\u2019re different pitches. He didn\u2019t throw any changeups and has barely used one this season. His first pitch in the sixth inning was 92 mph, and he couldn\u2019t land his breaking stuff, so while he battled through the inning and got up to 95 again, he allowed a homer and walked two, which makes his line score worse than he actually looked from behind the plate.<\/p>\n<p>Dietz has barely pitched before 2026 due to a stress fracture in his elbow that required surgery in the fall of his freshman year, with a setback costing him nearly all of his sophomore season and requiring a second operation. He\u2019s changed his delivery since then, with a little bit of a shorter stride. His arm is now later relative to his front foot landing than it was in 2023, which can lead to multiple problems, including reduced command, increased injury risk, and difficulty with breaking pitches. Dietz has no problem spinning the ball or getting on top of it enough to create vertical break, but I am concerned about the long-term outlook given the injuries he\u2019s already had.<\/p>\n<p>By stuff and results, Dietz is one of the top two college lefties in the class, along with Arizona State\u2019s Cole Carlon. If nothing happened before 2026, Dietz would be the top southpaw \u2014 he\u2019s outpitched Carlon and done it in a tougher conference, with equivalent or better stuff. I might still lean Carlon because of the track record and health, but I wouldn\u2019t be shocked at all to see someone take Dietz in the top 15 or so picks and try to move him up quickly to the majors while he\u2019s healthy and throwing this well.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-7251089 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2026-04-18T235347Z_2022593012_MT1USATODAY28762308_RTRMADP_3_OLE-MISS-PITCHER-CADE-TOWNSEND-10-CELEBR.jpeg\" alt=\"Cade Townsend celebrates while pitching.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      Cade Townsend has a 2.42 ERA and 73 strikeouts over 52 innings. (Angelina Alcantar \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n<p>Mississippi threw 23-year-old senior Hunter Elliott \u2014 who was recently granted another year of eligibility for 2027 \u2014 on Friday night, and used their best starter, righty Cade Townsend, on Saturday. Townsend\u2019s story was similar to Dietz\u2019s: He was outstanding for five innings and started to lose it in the sixth, particularly when he turned the lineup over for the third time. He was 93-97 mph with five pitches, including a splitter, cutter, slider and curveball, with the splitter and cutter both flashing plus and the fastball effective even to lefties because he runs it in on their hands so well. The curve is kind of a get-me-over pitch that he probably uses too often, getting called strikes, but I think risking some hard contact that isn\u2019t there on the other breakers.<\/p>\n<p>Through 18 batters, Townsend had gone 5 2\/3 innings, allowing no runs, two hits, no walks, and striking out five, all on 82 pitches. His stuff was fine if on the lower end of his velocity range for the day, while his command was clearly dropping during the eight-pitch strikeout of No. 9 hitter T.J. Pompey. Mississippi coach Mike Bianco didn\u2019t have anyone ready to go for the third time through the order, and Arkansas went double, homer, four-pitch walk before he came to get Townsend. So again, the line score doesn\u2019t really reflect how the pitcher looked.<\/p>\n<p>The big knock on Townsend is his size \u2013 he\u2019s listed at 6-foot-1, 185, and I\u2019ll take the under on the height. He\u2019s got strong legs, but he\u2019s not that physical overall and I guarantee some teams will pass on the huge stuff because they\u2019re worried he won\u2019t be able to handle starting. I wonder if he\u2019s a five-and-dive guy \u2014 goes five innings, is usually very effective, but rarely qualifies for the ERA title even in full, healthy seasons. The upside here is mid-rotation because he can show you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/glossary\/miscellaneous\/scouting-grades\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">three 55s or better<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-7251072 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2026-02-12T051600Z_746598258_MT1USATODAY28216076_RTRMADP_3_NCAA-BASEBALL-ARKANSAS-SCRIMMAGE-scaled.j.jpeg\" alt=\"Ryder Helfrick sets up to catch a pitch.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1829\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      Ryder Helfrick has 15 home runs and is considered one of the best defensive catchers of this draft class. (Brett Rojo \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n<p>Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick is getting a lot of first-round buzz because he\u2019s the best defensive catcher in this draft class \u2014 whether he\u2019s elite or just plus depends on whom you ask \u2014 and he\u2019s brought his whiff rate way down from last year, when he was in the bottom 10 percent of all Division I hitters in overall miss rate and in-zone miss. I saw just one swing and miss in two games, on a cutter in the zone, and some very hard contact along with three walks. It\u2019s a solid swing with enough bat speed to let him hammer fastballs this year, even at 95-plus.<\/p>\n<p>I won\u2019t pretend I can really evaluate a catcher\u2019s defense off two games where I was mostly behind the plate, but I did see a ton of agility from Helfrick in those looks \u2014 he is very quick to get out of the crouch and into position to field a tapper or pick up anything he blocked, and the one game throw I got (the Rebels ran on him just once) made a near-impossible play a close one. It\u2019s a 70 arm and I have no reason to doubt that he\u2019s at least a 60 defender.<\/p>\n<p>Helfrick\u2019s miss rate has crept up in SEC play, although he\u2019s still much better at making contact than he was last year, and the state of catching in the majors is such that even if he ends up a high-strikeout guy, he\u2019s still going to be valuable. Fourteen MLB teams have gotten an OBP below .300 so far this year from their catchers, and the same number of teams have gotten three homers or fewer from the position. Helfrick has enough zone judgment to see a .300-plus OBP and it\u2019s 15-20 homer power, which makes him a regular and an easy first-rounder even with the contact-rate risk.<\/p>\n<p>One more draft prospect of note from these lineups \u2014 Arkansas shortstop Cam Kozeal is probably an early day two pick, not a shortstop, maybe a low-OBP second baseman with power if he hits his ceiling. He actually homered twice on off-speed pitches \u2014 a hanging slider and a cutter that just sat there like a wounded duck \u2014 but overall he didn\u2019t pick up breaking stuff or Townsend\u2019s splitter.<\/p>\n<p>A hat-tip to Arkansas organist Kevin Jones for busting out Bastille\u2019s \u201cPompeii\u201d during one of Pompey\u2019s at-bats. If you\u2019re not going \u201cEh-eheu, eheu\u201d in your head right now, I feel sorry for you.<\/p>\n<p>Some injury notes from the top of the draft: UCLA righty Logan Reddemann hasn\u2019t pitched since April 17, with the team calling it \u201carm fatigue;\u201d I hope that\u2019s all it is but the rumor is he was going for a second opinion on his arm on Friday. \u2026 Virginia has been without shortstop Eric Becker since April 16 due to a hand injury and AJ Gracia since April 28, with Becker trying to play through it for a couple of games before he shut it down. \u2026 Coastal Carolina right-hander Cam Flukey threw 24 pitches on April 26 in his first outing in over two months after he fractured a rib in February, but got knocked around by Georgia State in his second outing this past Sunday, giving up 6 runs in 2 1\/3 innings with just one strikeout. \u2026 LSU centerfielder Jacob Brown was \u2014 probably still is \u2014 a top-30\/top-40ish pick off a breakout spring where he\u2019s already doubled his home run total from last year, but his season is probably done after he broke a hamate bone in his hand and underwent surgery in late April.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Arkansas lefty Hunter Dietz came into this year with 1 2\/3 total career innings as a Razorback, spread&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":772484,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[1266,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-772483","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-mlb","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116516122915446455","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/772483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=772483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/772483\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/772484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=772483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=772483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=772483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}