\n\tIn this year\u2019s first round, the No. 7 seed Philadelphia 76ers overcame pre-series odds of +800 as well as a 3-1 deficit to knock out the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics. It was the fifth-largest playoff upset of the past four decades.<\/p>\n
\n\tThe No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons needed a 3-1 comeback of their own to avoid being stunned by the No. 8 seed Orlando Magic, and LeBron James\u2019 undermanned Lakers defeated the Houston Rockets despite +425 odds. Throw in the Indiana Pacers\u2019 and New York Knicks\u2019 surprising second-round wins last year (+425 and +550 odds, respectively), and four of the 14 largest NBA playoff upsets of the past 40 years have occurred in just the past two postseasons.<\/p>\n
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\n\tUpsets are now the norm in April and May. If you\u2019d bet $100 on the underdog for every series in the 1990s, you\u2019d have lost $3,415, per Covers.com. In the 2000s, you\u2019d have been down $5,530, and in the 2010s you\u2019d have been $4,290 in the hole. In the 2020s so far, a bettor backing the underdog every time would be up $1,650.<\/p>\n
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\n\tPut more simply, underdogs won 23% of series in the 1990s and only 21% of series in the 2000s and 2010s, but are taking 33% of series in the 2020s.<\/p>\n
\n\tOther data points corroborate the chaos theory. Not only has there been no repeat NBA champion in the 2020s, but there hasn\u2019t even been a repeat conference champion. There have also been more unexpected finalists\u2014the 2025 Pacers nearly won the title despite +15000 odds at one point during the season, and the 2023 Miami Heat made the Finals after nearly losing in the Play-In Tournament.<\/p>\n
\n\tMore unpredictability means more drama, which may generate more interest. The league announced Thursday that the 2026 NBA Playoffs were delivering their highest viewership in 33 years. That\u2019s largely due to the NBA\u2019s return to broadcast television with NBC, but six out of the eight first-round series going to at least Game 6 certainly helped.<\/p>\n
\n\tOn the other hand, the NBA Finals is now less likely to feature star-studded teams. Last year, the Pacers emerged from the Eastern Conference\u2019s chaos, leading to a matchup between small-market teams from Oklahoma City and Indiana. Although the championship series was competitive and tactically intriguing, it was one of the least-watched on record.<\/p>\n
\n\tRegardless of whether unpredictability is good for the league, it\u2019s probably not a fluke. Here are five compelling reasons to believe in the trend.<\/p>\n
\t\tInjuries<\/strong>\t<\/p>\n \n\tPostseason injuries are now much more common. In nine consecutive seasons, at least five All-Stars missed a playoff game\u2014that only occurred five times in the previous 40 seasons. The threshold was already hit in the first round this year, with Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, Brandon Ingram and Victor Wembanyama all sidelined at least once.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t \n\tInjuries played a role in all three first-round upsets. The Denver Nuggets lost to a banged-up Minnesota Timberwolves team, but they themselves were without starter Aaron Gordon for three games. The Lakers-Rockets series was riddled with uncertainty regarding who would be available for which games. Boston was without Jayson Tatum for Game 7 against Philadelphia.<\/p>\n \n\tThe two biggest upsets of the 2025 playoffs were also affected by injuries. Former All-Stars Darius Garland and Evan Mobley were not fully healthy for the Cleveland Cavaliers\u2019 2025 second-round loss to the Pacers, and the Knicks beat the Celtics after Tatum tore his Achilles.<\/p>\n \t\t3-Point Shooting Variance<\/strong>\t<\/p>\n \n\tThe 3-point revolution that began in the 2010s has continued into the 2020s. Two recent champions\u2014the 2022 Golden State Warriors and 2024 Celtics\u2014attempted nearly half of their shots from beyond the arc. Threes, though, are more variable than shots closer to the basket, and over a small sample of just seven games, hot and cold outside shooting can swing the outcome.<\/p>\n \n\tIn their first-round collapse versus the Sixers, the Celtics won the three games when they shot above 35% from three but lost all four games when they shot below 35%. Under head coach Joe Mazzulla, Boston relies heavily (arguably to a fault) on the 3-ball, but even teams with lower shooting volume can be affected by variance. Nikola Jokic, for instance, a career 37% three-point shooter, hit just 19% in the first round, allowing Minnesota to sag off him, which affected the spacing for the Nuggets\u2019 offense.<\/p>\n \n\tMost notably, Miami\u2019s unlikely run to the 2023 Finals featured some of the flukiest hot shooting in recent NBA history. The Celtics, again, were on the wrong end of shooting variance when Miami made 58% of its wide-open threes in the Eastern Conference Finals.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n