{"id":77898,"date":"2025-07-20T11:47:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T11:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/77898\/"},"modified":"2025-07-20T11:47:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-20T11:47:11","slug":"only-3-years-left-new-study-warns-the-world-is-running-out-of-time-to-avoid-the-worst-impacts-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/77898\/","title":{"rendered":"Only 3 years left \u2013 new study warns the world is running out of time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bad climate news is everywhere. Africa is being hit particularly hard<\/a> by climate change and extreme weather, impacting lives and livelihoods.<\/p>\n

We are living in a world that is warming at the fastest rate since records began. Yet, governments have been slow to act. <\/p>\n

The annual global climate change conference of the parties (COP30)<\/a> is just months away. All of the 197 countries that belong to the United Nations were supposed to have submitted updated national climate plans to the UN<\/a> by February this year. These plans outline how each country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions in line with the legally binding international Paris Agreement<\/a>. This agreement commits all signatories to limiting human-caused global warming to no more than 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. <\/p>\n

Governments must also bring their newly updated national climate action plans to COP30 and show how they plan to adapt to the impacts that climate change will bring. <\/p>\n


\n Read more:
\n Climate change: alarming Africa-wide report predicts 30% drop in crop revenue, 50 million without water<\/a>
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

But so far, only 25 countries, covering around 20% of global emissions<\/a>, have submitted their plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions<\/a>. In Africa, they are Somalia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This leaves 172 still to come. <\/p>\n

The nationally determined contributions are very important in setting out countries\u2019 short- to medium-term commitments on climate change. They also provide a direction of travel that can inform broader policy decisions and investments. Aligning climate plans with development goals could lift 175 million people out of poverty<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But arguably only one of the submitted plans \u2013 the UK\u2019s \u2013 is compatible with the Paris Agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n


\n Read more:
\n Climate change has doubled the world’s heatwaves: how Africa is affected<\/a>
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

We are climate scientists, and one of us (Piers Forster) leads the global science team that publishes the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report<\/a>. This report gives an overview of the state of the climate system. It is based on calculations of the net emissions of greenhouse gases globally, how these are concentrating in the atmosphere, how temperatures are rising on the ground, and how much of this warming has been caused by humans. <\/p>\n

The report also looks at how extreme temperatures and rainfall are intensifying, how much the sea levels are rising, and how much carbon dioxide can still be emitted before the planet\u2019s temperature exceeds 1.5\u00b0C more than it was in pre-industrial times. This is important because staying within 1.5\u00b0C is needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n

Our report shows<\/a> that human-caused global warming reached 1.36\u00b0C in 2024. This boosted average global temperatures (a combination of human-induced warming and natural variability in the climate system) to 1.52\u00b0C. In other words, the world has already reached the level where it has warmed so much that it cannot avoid significant impacts from climate change. There is no doubt we are in dangerous waters.<\/p>\n

Our dangerously hot planet<\/p>\n

Although last year\u2019s global temperatures were very high, they were also alarmingly unexceptional. The data speaks for itself. Continued record high levels of greenhouse gas emissions have led to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide<\/a>, methane<\/a> and nitrous oxide<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The result is rising temperatures that are rapidly eating into the remaining carbon budget<\/a> (the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted within an agreed time). This will be exhausted in less than three years<\/a> at current levels of emissions.<\/p>\n


\n Read more:
\n Climate change is threatening Madagascar’s famous forests \u2013 our study shows how serious it is<\/a>
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

We need to face this head on: the window to stay within 1.5\u00b0C is essentially shut. Even if we can bring temperatures back down in future, it will be a long and difficult road.<\/p>\n

At the same time, climate extremes are intensifying, bringing long-term risks and costs to the global economy but also, importantly, people. The African continent is now facing its deadliest climate crisis in over a decade<\/a>.<\/p>\n


\n Read more:
\n Why Africa stands to benefit if rise in global temperatures is kept to 1.5\u00b0C<\/a>
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

It would be impossible to imagine economies operating without fast access to trusted data. When share prices plummet or growth stalls, politicians and business leaders act decisively. None would tolerate outdated intelligence on sales or the stock market.<\/p>\n

But when it comes to climate, the speed of climate change often outpaces the data available. This means fast decisions can\u2019t be made. If we treated climate data as we do financial reports, panic would ensue after each dire update. But while governments routinely pivot when faced with an economic downturn, they have been far slower to respond to what key climate indicators \u2013 the Earth\u2019s vital signs \u2013 are telling us.<\/p>\n

What needs to happen next<\/p>\n

As more countries develop their climate plans, it\u2019s time for leaders across the globe to face the hard truths of climate science. <\/p>\n

Governments need to have fast access to trusted climate data so that they can develop up-to-date national climate plans. The national climate plans need to take a global perspective too. This is really important for fairness and equity. For example, developed countries must acknowledge that they\u2019ve emitted more greenhouse gases and take the lead in presenting ambitious mitigation efforts and in providing finance for other countries to decarbonise and adapt. <\/p>\n


\n Read more:
\n Climate change makes life harder: in South Africa it\u2019s likely to bring heatwaves, water stress and gender-based violence<\/a>
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

In Africa, the UN is hosting UNFCCC Climate Week in Addis Ababa<\/a> in September. As well as making plans for COP30, there will be sessions on accessing climate finance and ensuring that the transition to zero human-caused carbon emissions by 2050<\/a> (net zero) is just and equitable. The summit also aims to support countries that are still working on their national climate plans. <\/p>\n

If nationally determined contributions are implemented, the pace of climate change will slow down. This is vital not just for the countries \u2013 and economies \u2013 currently on the frontline against climate change, but for a functioning global society.<\/p>\n

Just five of the G20<\/a> countries have submitted their 2035 plans: Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. But the G20 is responsible for around 80% of global emissions. This means that South Africa\u2019s current G20 presidency can help to ensure that the world prioritises efforts to help developing countries finance their transition to a low-carbon economy.<\/p>\n


\n Read more:
\n Heat extremes in southern Africa might continue even if net-zero emissions are achieved<\/a>
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

Another worrying factor is that just 10 of the updated nationally determined contributions have reaffirmed or strengthened commitments to move away from fossil fuels. This means that national climate plans from the European Union, China and India will be key in testing their climate leadership and keeping the Paris Agreement\u2019s 1.5\u00b0C temperature goals alive. Many other countries will be scrutinising what these countries commit to before they submit their own national climate plans.<\/p>\n

The data in our report helps the world to understand not just what\u2019s happened in recent years, but also what to expect further down the track.<\/p>\n

Our hope is that these and other countries submit ambitious and credible plans well before COP30<\/a>. If they do, this will finally close the gap between acknowledging the climate crisis and making decisive efforts to address it. Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions matters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bad climate news is everywhere. Africa is being hit particularly hard by climate change and extreme weather, impacting…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":77899,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[746,159,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-77898","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-environment","9":"tag-science","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114885403741918486","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77898","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77898"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77898\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77898"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77898"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77898"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}