Dumbarton, a picturesque coastal town along the River Clyde near Glasgow, has been represented in the Scottish Parliament by Jackie Baillie, a Labour Party politician, since 1999.<\/p>\n
Residents think this could be the week that changes.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve lost total faith in all the politicians,\u201d Willie Henderson, 98, said on a recent day as he sat in a cafe in one of Dumbarton\u2019s parks. \u201cThey all get in with good intentions, and then they just line their pockets. They\u2019re on the gravy train.\u201d<\/p>\n
On Thursday, voters across Scotland and Wales will elect members of their national parliaments, while residents in many parts of England will choose members of local councils. Mr. Henderson, who worked for 30 years at the local whisky distillery, said he would likely vote for an independent candidate, even though his father was a lifelong Labour supporter.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs long as I get blue skies and sunshine, I don\u2019t care what the politicians do,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
That sense of disaffection and frustration, especially with incumbent politicians, is rampant across Britain, opinion polls suggest, and will likely fuel an electoral disaster for Prime Minister Keir Starmer\u2019s Labour Party.<\/p>\n
By the time the ballots are all counted on Saturday, Mr. Starmer could be presiding over a party that has fallen to a distant third place \u2014 or lower \u2014 in thousands of local races.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Keir Starmer campaigning for Labour in London on Tuesday. His party is expected to lose many seats.Credit…Carl Court\/Getty Images<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is the total collapse of the traditional two-party system,\u201d said Luke Tryl, executive director of the polling firm More in Common. \u201cIt is people saying, \u2018I\u2019m not happy with the status quo.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr. Starmer himself is not on the ballot, and a general election does not have to be held until 2029. But with surveys showing him as one of the least popular<\/a> prime ministers in British history, Thursday\u2019s voting is viewed as a referendum on his leadership.<\/p>\n In place of Labour and its traditional opponent, the Conservatives, many voters are embracing other parties in what experts say represents the largest transformation in British politics in a generation. The two biggest beneficiaries are Reform U.K., the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage, a supporter of President Trump, and \u2014 on the other side of the political spectrum \u2014 the leftist, pro-environment Green Party.<\/p>\n Polls suggest that the Conservative Party, known as the Tories, will continue to lose seats after cratering in local and national elections over the past two years. In some parts of Britain, the party once led by the \u201cIron Lady\u201d of British politics, Margaret Thatcher, could come in fourth or fifth, with support in the single digits.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a fundamental rejection of the two main parties, but it has not come from nowhere,\u201d said Prof. Jane Green, a political scientist at the University of Oxford. \u201cOne question is: Are we seeing something deeper than a protest vote against the two main parties? Have people gone past the point of no return?\u201d<\/p>\n Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform U.K., campaigning in Leeds in March.Credit…Oli Scarff\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/p>\n Mr. Farage predicts a historic surge in support for his anti-immigration party, which has led opinion polls for more than a year. Zack Polanski, a former hypnotherapist who became leader of the Greens in September, is hailing his party as a true home for disaffected Labour liberals. Other parties in Scotland, Wales and England are further fragmenting the electorate. (There is no voting in Northern Ireland this week.)<\/p>\n The predictions are so grim for Mr. Starmer that some rivals within Labour have been plotting possible challenges to his leadership for months.<\/p>\n Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics, said recently that he doubted whether Labour lawmakers would \u201cget to such a fever pitch of dissent that they would trigger a leadership election.\u201d<\/p>\n But he said that if the results of Thursday\u2019s elections were \u201cvery, very bad, it might trigger somebody to decide there\u2019s nothing left to lose<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n In Wales, \u2018people are not happy with Labour\u2019<\/p>\n In Tredegar, a Welsh town north of Cardiff, a mural of one of the Labour Party\u2019s heroes \u2014 Aneurin Bevan, the architect of the N.H.S., the free health-care system set up after World War II \u2014 stares down from a wall not far from the street where he was born.<\/p>\n In the past, \u201cyou could put a donkey up, put a red rosette on it and they would vote for it,\u201d said Melvyn Williams, a retired steelworker and Labour supporter, referring to the Labour Party\u2019s colors and the traditional loyalty of voters in this former mining and iron-working town.<\/p>\n Not any more.<\/p>\n A mural showing Aneurin Bevan, the Labour Party hero who helped create the U.K.\u2019s National Health Service, in Tredegar, Wales.Credit…Andrew Testa for The New York Times<\/p>\n Opinion polls suggest that voters in Wales are poised to deny Labour control of the Welsh Parliament, known as the Senedd, for the first time since Wales gained its own political assembly. The left wing Plaid Cymru (pronounced plide kum-ree), which favors independence for Wales, is vying for first place with Reform.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a Labour area, but people are not happy with Labour at the moment,\u201d said Claire Markey, 53, who has run a hair salon in Tredegar for more than 18 years.<\/p>\n In the chair having a trim, David Jones, 83 and a retired miner, said he had voted Labour all his life. But this time he is backing Reform. Labour candidates, like other politicians, \u201cpromise the world and deliver nothing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In his campaign office in Caerphilly, Llyr Powell, the area\u2019s main Reform candidate, said, \u201cThis is the opportunity to defeat the Labour party now and set our mark.\u201d Although the area has a relatively low foreign-born population<\/a>, he cited immigration as a central issue. \u201cPeople feel it and see it firsthand,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n But the leaders of Plaid Cymru predict that Welsh voters will reject Reform.<\/p>\n Delyth Jewell, right, a candidate for Plaid Cymru, campaigning in Tredegar last week.Credit…Andrew Testa for The New York Times<\/p>\n Rhun ap Iorwerth, the party\u2019s leader, said there was \u201cdeep disillusionment with Keir Starmer\u2019s leadership\u201d but also recognition that Reform\u2019s populism is \u201ca threat to Wales.\u201d Delyth Jewell, a Plaid Cymru candidate, said many voters viewed Mr. Farage\u2019s Reform as a party rooted in the English political system, not the Welsh one.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are horrified by that prospect of Reform,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n A surge for Reform in England<\/p>\n England\u2019s councils are the backbone of the country\u2019s local government: They organize trash pickup, run libraries, fill potholes and more. To pay for all of that, councils receive some money from the central government, and collect a property tax<\/a> from residents and businesses.<\/p>\n On Thursday, voters will choose council members in towns, rural village parishes and big-city boroughs. Of the 5,000 council seats up for election, 2,196 are currently held by Labour. Surveys suggest the party could lose three-quarters of them or more.<\/p>\n The issues driving those projected losses vary widely.<\/p>\n In some smaller towns far from London, concern about immigration appears to be helping Mr. Farage\u2019s Reform party.<\/p>\n But in other places, including parts of central London, Mr. Polanski\u2019s Green Party appears likely to make inroads with progressive voters. Many are frustrated with Mr. Starmer over his government\u2019s centrist economic policies, its tough approach to immigration and its perceived lack of robust support for Palestinian rights.<\/p>\n Zack Polanski, leader of the Green Party, speaking to candidates and supporters in south London last month.Credit…Justin Tallis\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/p>\n Still other councils may be decided by concerns about policing and security. Mr. Tryl, the pollster, said that Reform candidates were campaigning heavily in some places by stoking fears of crime \u2014 although official data shows that most forms of crime have fallen<\/a> in the past decade, and London\u2019s homicide rate is at its lowest level<\/a> since records began.<\/p>\n In Scotland, Labour\u2019s decline helps a nationalist party<\/p>\n If Ms. Baillie, the longtime Scottish parliamentarian, loses in Dumbarton after representing the area for more than a quarter century, it would underline Labour\u2019s decline in Scotland.<\/p>\n James Curry, 60, a social worker from Dumbarton, has in the past supported the Scottish National Party, which campaigns for independence from the United Kingdom and has led the Scottish Parliament for nearly 20 years. He said he was struggling to decide who to vote for.<\/p>\n \u201cI just feel they\u2019ve had their time in power, and I don\u2019t know if they have honored their promises,\u201d he said, citing concerns about Scotland\u2019s National Health Service and education.<\/p>\n Anas Sarwar, center, the leader of the Scottish Labour Party, with the party\u2019s deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, and candidate for Renfrewshire North and Cardonald, Mike McKirdy, in Glasgow, last month.Credit…Jeff J Mitchell\/Getty Images<\/p>\n One thing he does know: He\u2019s not voting for Reform.<\/p>\n