But the entity that helped to lay the foundation of the Fox age could also be the dynamite that causes it to implode.<\/p>\n
FOX\u2019s size is a problem<\/p>\n
The chess pieces have been moving around the board for months. The NFL saw how many billions the NBA was able to make in their new TV deals and sent a message to current partners<\/a> to pay more on their existing deals, with the leverage of an existing 2029 opt-out clause. Essentially, the choice is a) renegotiate now and pay more starting this upcoming season through the 2033 season or b) risk losing your NFL rights after the 2029 season, and even if you keep them, you\u2019re likely to pay a much higher increase than negotiating now.<\/p>\n The NFL is the most-watched product in all of television, streaming, cable, broadcast, antenna, and every other form of communication that exists in American society. It\u2019s not out of the question that they could double their rights fees, given the insane demand for live NFL games.<\/p>\n That increase is the biggest threat to Fox, the smallest of the media and tech giants that currently air NFL games. Fox Corp\u2019s market cap is right around $25 billion.\u00a0 Compare that to Comcast ($92 billion), the new Paramount Skydance-WBD conglomerate ($100 billion-plus), Disney ($188 billion), Netflix ($370 billion), Amazon ($2.93 trillion) and Google ($4.83 trillion). It\u2019s easy to see which company is under the most financial strain from the NFL charging a premium for its product. Fox is simply the smallest stack at the poker table, and the blinds keep going up.<\/p>\n So it\u2019s no coincidence that news of a summit between Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump<\/a> comes as the Trump administration puts never-before-seen pressure on the NFL to stay committed to broadcast television. That government pressure has included a DOJ investigation into anti-competitive practices<\/a> and public comments from FCC chair Brendan Carr<\/a>. As has been clear from the beginning, the political and business interests of Murdoch, Trump, and the conservative billionaire class are all aligned here in keeping NFL games on Fox at a reasonable price. For now.<\/p>\n But amidst all the drama that seems fit for an entire season\u2019s arc of\u00a0Succession, comes a very real possibility.<\/p>\n What if Roger Goodell calls their bluff?<\/p>\n Don\u2019t underestimate the NFL<\/p>\n The NFL is known as the most aggressive negotiating entity in all of sports. It\u2019s a boxer that has never lost a fight and has never been knocked down. A lot of negotiating fights have ended early with knockouts. The league\u2019s track record in getting its way is extensive, and because of that, challenges to the league are usually small in nature and very infrequent.<\/p>\n Once upon a time, ESPN was out of the league\u2019s good graces<\/a> and getting terrible Monday Night Football schedules. The network then invested tens of millions in broadcast talent, led by Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. ESPN president Jimmy Pitaro worked tirelessly to mend fences<\/a>. And now the NFL literally owns part of ESPN<\/a>.<\/p>\n The NFL is the most popular sports league in America, with each\u00a0of its teams valued at\u00a0at least $5 billion<\/a>. At the end of the day, the harsh truth is that the NFL does not need Fox like it once did.<\/p>\n The NFL will have several billion-dollar and trillion-dollar companies\u00a0falling all over themselves<\/a> to get a piece of their lucrative, luscious pie.\u00a0And all of them will have much deeper pockets than Fox. Whether it\u2019s streamers or broadcast networks, everyone wants more NFL games. If the NFL were to put Fox\u2019s current package up for bid, the competition would be fierce.<\/p>\n NBC had Sunday afternoon games from 1965 to 1997. Let\u2019s say Netflix were to bid\u00a0infinity plus one dollar for the rights to\u00a0Sunday Night Football; Comcast would certainly have the funds and desire\u00a0to move back to Sunday afternoon to stay in the game. We know CBS isn\u2019t going anywhere now that it\u2019s financed by the Ellisons and has its impending WBD acquisition to grow into a newly massive media giant. What about ABC? The NFL already owns 10% of ESPN and is in lock step with the company. Maybe other networks would protest if the NFL looked like it was\u00a0doing a favor for an entity they had equity in<\/a>, but they could try to separate ABC\u2019s Sunday-afternoon\u00a0coverage from ESPN\u2019s Monday Night Football\u00a0package and call it fair.<\/p>\n Regardless of who takes which package, in a game of magical chairs, the most logical seat to remove is Fox. There are myriad realistic scenarios in which Fox is left without a seat at the NFL table come the 2029 opt-out. And it might just be for business and\u00a0personal reasons. We just so happen to have a very real parallel from recent sports media history to draw from.<\/p>\n Zaslav\u2019s Folly<\/p>\n Before the NBA signed its new deals with NBC, Amazon, and ESPN, the Association had a longstanding relationship with TNT. However, Warner Bros. Discovery chairman David Zaslav began sounding off about how expensive rights were becoming and how his company didn\u2019t need the NBA anymore<\/a>. The result? NBA commissioner Adam Silver took him up on it<\/a>. The NBA went elsewhere. And even though Zaslav and WBD attempted a last-ditch lawsuit<\/a> to try to save face, their decades-long relationship with the NBA was over. The NBA pivoted away from TNT towards more games on streaming with Amazon and more games on network TV with NBC, and has been reaping the benefits thus far.<\/p>\n As the 2029 opt-out approaches, the NFL could decide that Rupert Murdoch\u2019s pressure tactics were too aggressive and too costly to the league, and that Fox could not be given any loyalty as a longstanding partner. Threatening federal investigations isn\u2019t really the best way to grease the wheels for a mutually beneficial partnership, is it?<\/p>\n The threats from the DOJ and FCC don\u2019t really pass the smell test<\/a>, as do many of the administration\u2019s efforts to translate political pressure into actual legal consequences. Taking away antitrust exemptions and altering the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 could have unintended consequences and fragment the NFL media landscape even further than it already is. Roger Goodell could sign new TV deals and declare that the government is trying to protect Fox and Murdoch more than real fans by touting the wide appeal of platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime. In fact, he\u2019s already hinted at that public relations strategy<\/a> by talking up the reach of streamers, which is likely to expand.<\/p>\n Additionally, there will be a new administration in Washington, D.C. in 2029. The coziness of the federal government and the Murdochs would suffer a big blow if a Democrat wins the Presidency. At that point, streamers will have even greater reach, and there will be far fewer cards to play for Fox and the Murdochs to stymie whatever the NFL chooses to do.<\/p>\n The NFL on Fox\u2019s uncertain future<\/p>\n Finally, there is the reality that Fox Corp. is not the world-conquering force that it once was. The existing company has been spun off from the wider News Corp. empire and has seen its studio business gobbled up by Disney. All it has left now is its broadcast networks, cable news channel, and sports division. While this was a genius move at the time (selling those assets at the top of the market) the reality is that so much of what is left for Fox today is greatly aided by their relationship with the NFL. If you unplug the NFL from Fox, it\u2019s a blow for the entire business.<\/p>\n No matter how hard they might try, nobody can force Roger Goodell and the league to sign a deal with a network that they no longer desire to be in business with. If the offers for rights are close, would the NFL sign with a network threatening to undermine them to stay alive, or a streamer with unlimited money to throw at them and give them everything they want?<\/p>\n While Fox has likely staved off having to pay billions of dollars over the next few years with its pressure campaign, it could end up backfiring in a major way if the league decides it can find better, richer partners elsewhere.<\/p>\n Rupert Murdoch\u2019s gamble to enlist President Trump in his fight against the NFL will go down, one way or another, as a legacy-defining move. Murdoch may feel like he has the strongest hand at the moment, but this high-stakes game is far from finished.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The highest-stakes poker game in the history of televised sports is playing out right before our eyes among…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":782478,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[69,1318,74452,1317,1315,1316,36190,65957,653,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-782477","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-donald-trump","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-fox-corp","11":"tag-ncaa","12":"tag-ncaa-football","13":"tag-ncaafootball","14":"tag-nfl-on-fox","15":"tag-roger-goodell","16":"tag-rupert-murdoch","17":"tag-sports","18":"tag-united-states","19":"tag-unitedstates","20":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116540289978040299","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/782477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=782477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/782477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/782478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=782477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=782477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=782477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Donald](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/aatrump-1024x562.png\")
<\/a>Credit: NFL on Fox<\/p>\n![\"NFL](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/USATSI_28143430-scaled-e1770080214467-1024x547.jpg\")
<\/a>Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images<\/p>\n![\"Warner](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/USATSI_22694717_168384754_lowres-e1732729720801-1024x551.jpg\")
<\/a>Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n