During a White House small business summit, President Donald Trump said the economy is strong and his policies are satisfying Americans.<\/p>\n
“Consumer confidence is way up,” Trump said at the\u00a0May 4 event<\/a>.<\/p>\n Three standard measurements of consumer satisfaction \u2014 from the University of Michigan; a business group called the Conference Board; and an aggregation of public polling data \u2014 show the opposite. They reveal that people are less satisfied with the economy now than at the end of President Joe Biden\u2019s tenure, and at least one of the metrics puts consumer confidence near an all-time low.<\/p>\n The White House pointed to retail spending data to support his statement, but that isn\u2019t a clear-cut measure of consumer confidence when other economic factors are at play.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tUniversity of Michigan measure is near all-time lows<\/p>\n Every month since 1978,\u00a0University of Michigan<\/a>\u00a0researchers have asked Americans a series of questions to gauge their feelings about the economy. The results for the main question on consumer sentiment historically have ranged mostly between 50 and 110 on an index scale, with 112 indicating the highest confidence levels recorded.<\/p>\n The score for March 2026, the most recent month, was 53.3. That\u2019s the ninth-lowest score since the survey first went monthly. Of those nine lowest marks, five have come during Trump\u2019s second term. (Two happened during 40-year-high inflation under Biden in 2022 and two came during even higher inflation under Jimmy Carter in 1980.)<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tConference Board measurement shows Trump on worse footing than Biden<\/p>\n The Conference Board, a nonprofit research group for member businesses, has also surveyed consumer sentiment for decades. In recent years, its ratings have ranged from about 80 to 130 on an index scale, and they have been lower during Trump\u2019s second term than under Biden.<\/p>\n In Biden\u2019s final full month in office, the rating was 109.5. In April 2026 under Trump, it was 92.8. During Biden\u2019s final 16 months, the metric averaged 104.3. During the 16 months of Trump\u2019s second term, it has averaged 94.6.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tPolls show public approval of Trump\u2019s economic policies is falling<\/p>\n One widely used aggregator of public opinion polls is compiled by\u00a0Silver Bulletin<\/a>, a website published by FiveThirtyEight.com founder Nate Silver.<\/p>\n The site does long-term tracking of presidential net approval ratings in a variety of public polls. Net approval refers to the share of respondents saying they approve minus the share saying they disapprove. A positive net approval number means the president has more approvers than disapprovers; a negative net approval number means they have more disapprovers than approvers.<\/p>\n During his second term, net approval for Trump\u2019s handling of the economy has cratered. It began in positive territory when he was inaugurated in January 2025 but turned negative the next month. Since then, his net approval has continued to sink; in early May, disapproval exceeded approval by 24 percentage points.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tOne metric is potentially more favorable to Trump\u2019s assertion<\/p>\n When we asked the White House for evidence of improving consumer confidence, spokesperson Kush Desai pointed to “the hard data of actual consumer spending and retail sales figures,” which he said “have consistently shown that American consumers are resilient and continue to spend.”<\/p>\n Looking at the White House\u2019s two favored metrics \u2014 consumer spending and retail sales \u2014 presents results.<\/p>\n