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MP Materials (MP) surged 194% over the past year as the U.S. flagship rare earth producer, though at a 43.9 price-to-sales ratio it prices in years of policy support while EBITDA remains negative $36.2M. Sprott launched the Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) is building Western processing capacity to reduce China\u2019s 99% dominance in heavy rare earth processing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Washington\u2019s rare earth supply chain crisis is fundamentally an economics problem, not geopolitics: the U.S. strategic stockpile collapsed 96% since 1990 while mining profitability remains elusive, leaving American industry vulnerable to six-week disruptions when China restricts exports.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and MP Materials wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n A guest on the TechSurge Deep Tech Podcast reframed the rare earth debate in stark terms this week, arguing that Washington’s supply chain panic misses the actual problem. The headline numbers are jarring: “For heavy rare earths, China processes 99% of them.” When Beijing tightened export controls, the timeline to industrial pain was measured in weeks, not quarters.<\/p>\n “When China turned off the taps, within six weeks, American industry was struggling,” the guest said. That fragility is compounded by a stockpile that has been hollowed out. “In 1990, we had $25 billion of materials in our national defense stockpile. Last year, we had $900 million,” a collapse of roughly 96% in strategic reserves over three decades.<\/p>\n The Reframe: An Economics Problem Wearing Geopolitical Clothes <\/p>\n The most provocative claim from the segment was diagnostic. “The biggest misconception is it is a geopolitical problem. It is actually an economic problem,” the guest argued, adding that “making mining profitable is the biggest challenge that we have.”<\/p>\n The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and MP Materials wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE<\/a>.<\/p>\n The macro data backs that up. Bureau of Economic Analysis figures show U.S. mining value-added shrank from $411.1B in Q1 2025 to $370.9B in Q4 2025, with mining’s share of GDP compressing to just 1%. Q2 2025 alone posted a -9% growth rate, the sharpest contraction in the sector’s recent history. Capital does not flow toward businesses with persistently negative growth, and the U.S. trade deficit running at -$60.3B as of March 2026 reflects that import dependency.<\/p>\n What the Market Is Already Pricing In <\/p>\n MP Materials (NYSE:MP<\/a>)<\/strong>, the closest thing the U.S. has to a domestic rare earth flagship, has become the cleanest read on investor sentiment toward this thesis.<\/p>\n Shares are up 194% over the past year and 44% year to date, with a 42% surge in the past month alone. The market cap sits near $12.1 billion against trailing revenue of just $275.5 million, a price-to-sales ratio of 43.9 that prices in years of policy tailwinds. EBITDA remains negative $36.2 million and EPS is -0.5, which is precisely the guest’s point: even the U.S. champion is not yet a profitable mining business. MP Materials’ investor materials detail the Mountain Pass operation and the Independence magnetics build-out in Texas.<\/p>\n What to Watch Next <\/p>\n Sprott just launched the Rare Earths Ex-China ETF<\/strong> (NYSEARCA:REXC<\/a>)<\/strong>, and pure-play developers like USA Rare Earth<\/strong> (NASDAQ:USAR<\/a>)<\/strong> and Critical Metals<\/strong>\u00a0(NASDAQ:CRML<\/a>)<\/strong> are racing to build Western processing capacity. The investable question is whether subsidies, offtake agreements, and tax credits can durably alter mining unit economics. Until they do, the 6-week buckle remains the base case for the next disruption.<\/p>\n The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks <\/p>\n