{"id":785963,"date":"2026-05-10T06:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T06:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/785963\/"},"modified":"2026-05-10T06:28:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T06:28:14","slug":"four-batters-hitting-the-ball-hard-without-good-results-and-what-pull-air-has-to-do-with-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/785963\/","title":{"rendered":"Four batters hitting the ball hard without good results, and what Pull Air has to do with it"},"content":{"rendered":"

For the first week data is collected, bat speed tells you more<\/a> about what to expect for a batter\u2019s rest-of-season power than any other metric. A few weeks into the season, Barrel rate tells you a little bit more. But now we\u2019re more than a month into the season and there are players with good bat speed and good Barrel rates, and no power to show for it. What do we make of those players?<\/p>\n

We can put together a list of players with high Barrel rates but low slugging numbers. And we can even show that nine out of the 10 biggest outliers are just not pulling the ball in the air (the league average in Pull Air percentage is just above 18 percent). And we can point out that the slugging percentage on a pulled fly ball was 250 points higher than an opposite field fly ball, or a straightaway fly ball. Here\u2019s that list.<\/p>\n

Better days ahead for these bats?<\/p>\nNameHRISOBarrel%Pull Air<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.141<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

15.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

10.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.115<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

14.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

16.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.119<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

13.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

13.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.143<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

11.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.115<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.099<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

10.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.150<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

15.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.126<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

19.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.053<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

5.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n\n

4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0.135<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

11.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

12.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

So the problem here for everyone on this list is just that they need to start pulling the ball in the air, right? Maybe. But of course it\u2019s not that simple.<\/p>\n

If it were that simple, putting a player\u2019s Pull Air percentage into expected slugging stats would make those numbers more predictive, which it doesn\u2019t. If it were that simple, these players could all just try to pull the ball in the air more. As it turns out, that\u2019s not so simple either.<\/p>\n

After watching Mitch Haniger hit ball after ball to the opposite field in batting practice, I asked him why he practiced that if we both knew that pulled balls in the air were the best batted ball type.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I practice hitting balls to the opposite field, I\u2019ll pull them in the game,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Padres hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. might have been telling Dennis Lin<\/a> something similar the other day.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the interesting things about pulling the ball or just driving the ball is it actually is less effort, to be honest,\u201d Souza said. \u201cIt\u2019s trusting the fluidity of your swing, knowing when to take your shots, knowing how to stay through the ball. And being able to catch the ball deeper, which is kind of counterintuitive, because I know all the metrics say, \u2018Hey, when you hit the ball out front, you hit it in the air, it\u2019s the best possible outcome.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite having a list of players who (other than Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.) seemingly all have the same problem, we\u2019re probably looking at different diagnoses for each player. Let\u2019s take a look at four of those players on the list and what might specifically be impacting the power numbers for each of them.<\/p>\n

(All stats through Wednesday, May 6)<\/p>\n

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals<\/p>\n

It looks like Witt has lost a tick of bat speed. But has he really? He\u2019s seeing fewer fastballs and more sweepers and cutters. What if he\u2019s just swinging a little slower at slower pitches? Take a look at Witt\u2019s swing against fastballs in the zone last year compared to this year.<\/p>\n

Bobby Witt Jr. vs in-zone fastballs<\/p>\nYearBat SpeedTiltAttack AngleIntercept<\/tr>\n\n\n

2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

74.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

22.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n\n

2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

73.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

22.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

It\u2019s hard to make much of any slight differences on this table. Yes, a higher attack angle is better, but there\u2019s nothing to the shape of his swing that suggests that he\u2019s doing something wrong. Maybe the fact that he\u2019s letting fastballs travel less than half an inch further means he\u2019s not lifting the fastball as well as he did last year, but these are tiny differences in timing.<\/p>\n

Maybe there\u2019s a few milliseconds of timing missing for Witt right now. Or perhaps most of the change this year comes from the fact that he\u2019s been a little bit unlucky. Last year, he slugged .661 on fastballs in the zone, and he was expected to slug .691 given the exit velocities and launch angles of those balls. This year, he\u2019s slugged .571 on fastballs in the zone against an .855 expected number.<\/p>\n

Fernando Tatis Jr., RF, San Diego Padres<\/p>\n

The change in spray charts for the homerless Tatis is stark. Look at all the missing pull-side fly balls on these FanGraphs spray charts:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Given the history with his shoulder, injury could be a factor, but the bat speed is still there. He\u2019s a notorious tinkerer, and thanks to Baseball Savant you can see just how different his stance this year (right) is versus a year ago (left).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Two things stand out. One, his back toe has been drifting back towards the catcher, which lines Tatis up to hit the ball to right field. Secondly, as much as he looks more similar at the end of his swing now than he did at the beginning, Tatis\u2019 front foot in 2026 is more open and closer to the plate when he lands. This might lead to the paradoxical feeling from many fans that he\u2019s trying to pull everything while the numbers say he\u2019s pulling nothing. He\u2019s pointing towards right field (back foot) and diving into the ball a little (front foot) and working against his body.<\/p>\n

That might just be what it looks like from the outside. But it does illustrate how a few inches here or there can make a huge difference. Through this lens, it seems likely that he can make these adjustments and at least get back to the post-suspension, post-injury baselines he\u2019s established over the last few years. Maybe just re-aligning his stance a little will help him get there.<\/p>\n

Jarren Duran, LF, Boston Red Sox<\/p>\n

Again, from the top level, Duran\u2019s issues look simple: He\u2019s just hitting more ground balls. He should hit those in the air. Boom.<\/p>\n

Of course, it isn\u2019t that simple. Pitchers have a say in this, after all. They\u2019re throwing Duran fewer four-seamers, for instance. Generally, they\u2019re throwing him fewer pitches up in the zone, which makes sense. He has a flatter swing than most, meaning he should be a little vulnerable down in the zone. Last year, which was Duran\u2019s best year for pulling the ball in the air, he did most of his damage up in the zone.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Unlike Tatis, though, Duran has had a career-long issue with pulling the ball in the air and has never done it at an above-average rate. He\u2019ll hit for power because he swings hard and hits the ball hard, but there\u2019s no real reason to think that his Barrel rate presages more power than usual. He\u2019ll likely end up with his 16-20 homers and numbers that look more like last year than anything else.<\/p>\n

Cam Smith, RF, Houston Astros<\/p>\n

If most of these adjustments are a game of inches and milliseconds, Smith\u2019s adjustment looks like it might be even smaller. His expected production on balls in play is in the top 10 percent of the league currently, and while he\u2019s not pulling it in the air right now, look how much of what he\u2019s doing is going to center field.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

He\u2019s getting the ball out in front with a good average attack angle and plus-plus bat speed. His swing is a little longer this year, and he\u2019s doing nothing against changeups, but this looks like the progression of a young player figuring out what the league is trying to do to him and exactly when to swing. He\u2019s swinging less at pitches in the zone and more outside the zone, practically the only negative peripheral on his docket. But players generally swing less at pitches outside the zone as they age, which would put just the right finish on Smith\u2019s game.<\/p>\n

I continue to think that he\u2019s one of the most exciting young five-tool players who you might still be able to acquire in fantasy leagues, and a particularly strong play in keeper leagues where you get the benefit of a bigger window during which he could take that leap. Watching him approach that next level of play is one of the few bright spots on this Astros team right now, too.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For the first week data is collected, bat speed tells you more about what to expect for a…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":785964,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[1281,2084,2382,1284,1266,1306,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-785963","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-boston-red-sox","9":"tag-fantasy-baseball","10":"tag-houston-astros","11":"tag-kansas-city-royals","12":"tag-mlb","13":"tag-san-diego-padres","14":"tag-sports","15":"tag-united-states","16":"tag-unitedstates","17":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116548869462001290","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=785963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/785964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=785963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=785963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=785963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}