Russians are starting to acknowledge that President Vladimir Putin has led the country to a dead end and can\u2019t shape its future, according to a former senior official in the Kremlin.<\/p>\n
In a recent Economist op-ed<\/a> authored anonymously, the former official pointed out that fellow government peers in Moscow, regional governors and businessmen have stopped using the first person plural when describing Putin\u2019s actions. <\/p>\n In other words, Russia\u2019s elites found a subtle way to no longer express solidarity with Putin, describing what \u201che\u201d does rather than what \u201cwe\u201d do.<\/p>\n That shift took place last spring, but does not signal a rebellion is imminent, the former official added, as the state still controls key levers of repression and fear.<\/p>\n At the same time, the regime has stopped bothering to sell a narrative of national restoration or modernization to the rest of the country, which is losing enormous amounts of blood and treasure in the battlefields of Ukraine.<\/p>\n \u201cThe irony is that Mr. Putin started the war to preserve power and the system he has created,\u201d the official wrote. \u201cNow, for the first time since the conflict began, Russians are starting to imagine a future without him.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The mounting costs of Putin\u2019s war on Ukraine have contributed to the nation\u2019s shift, as Russians grapple with higher inflation, more taxes, crumbling infrastructure, tighter censorship, and myriad new restrictions.<\/p>\n High inflation has also kept interest rates high. As companies and other borrowers struggle to service debt, defaults have climbed<\/a> and warnings of a financial crisis have multiplied.<\/p>\n Another factor is pushback from Russian elites, who are banned from living abroad and have lost the protection of Western laws that preserved their wealth.<\/p>\n The former official estimated that the state has seized around $60 billion in assets from private businessmen over the past three years, either outright nationalizing their property or redistributing it to cronies.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is not that the elites have suddenly discovered a taste for the rule of law or democracy,\u201d the op-ed said. \u201cBut even those loyal to the regime crave rules and institutions that can resolve conflicts fairly.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, as the rules-based global order fades, Russia can\u2019t game the system as much by exploiting institutions like the United Nations Security Council. The West\u2019s decline also means Russia is losing its foil, creating an identity crisis. <\/p>\n Finally, Russia\u2019s previous social contract\u2014which let citizens enjoy private lives as long as they stayed out of politics\u2014has collapsed, the former official added.<\/p>\n Instead of providing convenience, services and consumption, the regime only inflicts repression, intrusion and censorship.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople are required to be loyal without being told what future that loyalty serves,\u201d the official said.<\/p>\n The Kremlin\u2019s internet blackouts have raised howls among ordinary Russians as the regime tries to limit information on economic woes and soaring casualties in Ukraine.<\/p>\n And the country\u2019s disconnection from the regime comes as Putin has removed himself from public life, literally retreating into a bunker<\/a>.<\/p>\n He spends more time in underground bunkers micromanaging his\u00a0war, paranoid about a coup or an assassination attempt by Ukrainian drones,\u00a0sources told the\u00a0Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n One person who knows him told the\u00a0FT that Putin devotes 70% of his day to the war and only 30% to other duties, including the economy. <\/p>\n