\n\tCan Baby Yoda become a cultural touchstone once again?<\/p>\n
\n\tThat\u2019s the major question as Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu opens on the big screen over Memorial Day weekend. The film continues the story of The Mandalorian, Jon Favreau<\/a>\u2018s series that helped launch Disney+ and introduced the world to Baby Yoda (Grogu) just before the depths of the pandemic.<\/p>\n \n\tThe scrutiny couldn\u2019t be more intense. A standalone movie or not, it\u2019s the first Star Wars film to play in theaters in seven years for a host of reasons, beginning with the pandemic and followed by the labor strikes.<\/p>\n \n\tTracking services show The Mandalorian and Grogu opening to roughly $82 million at the domestic box office<\/a> for the four days, while some exhibitors see it coming in as high as $95 million to $100 million. That would be on the lower end of any Star Wars title released by Disney since the company paid $4.05 billion to buy Lucasfilm<\/a> in 2012, and it could potentially end up the lowest domestically, not adjusted for inflation. Globally, Disney insiders expect Mandalorian and Grogu to earn at least $160 million. It\u2019s rolling out in virtually every corner of the globe, save for South Korea. It has notched more than $25 million in presales domestically.<\/p>\n \n\tOthers who pay close attention to social metrics are more bullish. A major advantage: It is arguably the most family friendly title of any Star Wars film.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cWord-of-mouth across social media is the key; critics have become largely irrelevant to performance,\u201d says one a top Hollywood financier who still believes Mandalorian has a shot at scoring as much as $105 million for the four-day weekend in North America and another $85 million overseas. \u201cThe film\u2019s fate will also hinge on whether it draws in the family audience. We expect that demographic to turn out.\u00a0If they do not, the grosses will be lower than our predictions.\u201d This person adds, \u201cHistorically, Memorial Day has been\u00a0driven by\u00a0casual audiences deciding to go to the movies.\u00a0Star Wars films\u00a0have also relied on walk-up business.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tIn 2018, Solo: A Star Wars Story<\/a> debuted to $104 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, including $84 million for the three days. The stand-alone movie marked a low point in topping out just north of $393 million at the global box office. A year later, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker<\/a>, part of the main saga, topped out at $1.069 billion despite being panned by many critics (it also fueled further fan outrage over the overall state of the storied franchise).<\/p>\n \n\tRise of Skywalker\u2018s critics score on Rotten Tomatoes was a lowly 51 percent, but the audience score was a rousing 86 percent (Solo scored better with critics, with a still-not-great 69 percent, but its audience score was a dreaded 63 percent).<\/p>\n \n\tAs of midday Thursday, Mandalorian\u2018s score among critics rested at 60 percent; if it falls one point lower, it will be in \u201crotten\u201d territory.<\/p>\n \n\tThe first read on how U.S. audiences feel about Mandalorian will come Thursday afternoon when the movie opens in previews across the country at 2 p.m. (it\u2019s already started rolling out overseas in its first several markets).<\/p>\n \n\tDisney and analysts say the film\u2019s theatrical performance is only one piece of the financial puzzle. The Disney+ series generated more than 13 million pieces of Baby Yoda goods sold, making it one of its top-selling characters. And it\u2019s the most successful show in the history of Disney+, amassing more than 1 billion hours viewed, so the feature film version could also do well when eventually landing on Disney+. And a Star Wars attraction at Disneyland has also been revamped in honor of Mandalorian.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cThis is not only about the film\u2019s performance for Disney,\u201d says the film financier. <\/p>\n \n\tThe movie sees Pedro Pascal return as\u00a0Mandalorian, a bounty hunter also known as Din Djarin, who is charged with protecting Grogu. Favreau<\/a> directed the film from a script he wrote with Noah Kloor and Dave Filoni<\/a>, who earlier this year was\u00a0upped to oversee<\/a>\u00a0the creative direction of Lucasfilm as president and chief creative officer following Kathleen Kennedy\u2019s departure (he was a George Lucas<\/a> prot\u00e9g\u00e9).<\/p>\n \n\tIn the film, the Mandalorian is tasked by Sigourney Weaver\u2019s Colonel Ward of the New Republic to rescue Rotta the Hutt, voiced by Jeremy Allen White. (Martin Scorsese also voices a memorable, four-armed food stand chef.)<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cIt\u2019s hard to imagine anyone experiencing this as their first\u00a0Star Wars\u00a0film and getting hooked for life as those who saw the original trilogy in theaters did,\u201d writes The Hollywood Reporter in its review<\/a>. \u201cStill, it\u2019s an entertaining, fast-spaced space adventure that benefits immeasurably from the charisma (mostly vocal, but still) of\u00a0Pedro Pascal<\/a>\u00a0as the bounty hunting Mandalorian Din Djarin and the adorable cuteness of the animatronic Baby Yoda, excuse me, Grogu.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tAs for the future, the franchise may face a bigger referendum on its health next year when Star Wars: Starfighter, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Gosling,\u00a0opens on May 28.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Can Baby Yoda become a cultural touchstone once again? 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