{"id":823703,"date":"2026-05-26T17:33:23","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T17:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/823703\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T17:33:23","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T17:33:23","slug":"americas-housing-market-decline-no-longer-just-a-sun-belt-story-la-and-dallas-are-tumbling-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/823703\/","title":{"rendered":"America’s housing market decline ‘no longer just a Sun Belt story’\u2014LA and Dallas are tumbling, too"},"content":{"rendered":"

For the past two years, the story of falling home prices was largely a Sun Belt story \u2014 an unwinding of the pandemic-era land rush that had sent values in Austin, Tampa, and Phoenix to unsustainable heights. As recently as February,\u00a0JPMorgan\u2019s rosy national forecast was masking a \u201cSun Belt full of pain,\u201d<\/a>\u00a0with Florida and Texas bearing the brunt. That regional narrative is now changing.<\/p>\n

New data released Tuesday showed the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.2% month-over-month in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the second consecutive monthly decline. The annual pace of appreciation slipped to just 0.8%, and the three-month annualized rate \u2014 a cleaner read on momentum \u2014 collapsed to -0.2% from 2.3% the month prior.<\/p>\n

More striking than the national numbers is where the weakness is now showing up. Los Angeles posted a 1.6% annual decline. Washington, D.C. turned negative. Both are now joining markets like Tampa (-1.9%) and Dallas (-1.7%) in the red. Capital Economics, which cut its full-year U.S. home price growth forecast to 1% from 3%, and North America economist Thomas Ryan<\/a> wrote that the deterioration is \u201cno longer just a Sun Belt story.\u201d<\/p>\n

The demand-side rot has been building for a while.\u00a0Nearly 20% of new homes saw price cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025<\/a>, concentrated in the South and West, Fortune reported in February, with Texas accounting for a disproportionate share of listings with price reductions. Even a brief dip in mortgage rates to below 6% failed to bring buyers off the sidelines, as\u00a0January existing home sales cratered despite the momentary rate relief<\/a>. The structural freeze runs deeper still: as Fortune reported,\u00a0roughly 80% of mortgage holders are sitting on rates above the pre-2022 sub-4% threshold<\/a>, leaving would-be sellers locked in and inventory stubbornly constrained.<\/p>\n

The reset has arrived<\/p>\n

The pain could deepen before it eases. The Case-Shiller index is based on home closings and uses a three-month rolling average, meaning the full effect of rising mortgage rates \u2014 which climbed to 6.4% in March and 6.5% in April amid conflict in the Middle East \u2014 has yet to be absorbed. Capital Economics\u2019 Ryan wrote that he expects the impact to \u201cbecome more visible around mid-year.\u201d<\/p>\n

The competing FHFA index offered a marginally brighter picture, rising 0.1% month-over-month, but a simultaneous downward revision to February\u2019s reading kept its annual rate at a muted 1.7%. Neither measure suggests a market on solid footing.<\/p>\n

At the start of the year, Fortune framed 2026 as\u00a0\u201cThe Great Housing Reset\u201d<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 a year in which home prices would eke out just 1% growth while incomes caught up. Capital Economics has now arrived at something very much like that forecast, but only after cutting from a more optimistic 3% projection following two straight months of declines. For homeowners in Los Angeles and Dallas who once felt insulated from the Sun Belt\u2019s reckoning, the reset has arrived.<\/p>\n

For this story,\u00a0Fortune\u00a0journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.<\/p>\n

The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum<\/strong> will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what\u2019s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here<\/a>.<\/strong>