The City of Angels lost nearly 10,000 residents last year. L.A. County lost 62,000.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not exactly a mass exodus, but L.A.\u2019s shrinking population is enough to leave a few economists shuddering<\/a> at the long-term implications of so many people skipping town: less political influence, a smaller tax base, etc.<\/p>\n But amid the Southland\u2019s sea of change, one thing seems to always stay the same: Housing is still expensive.<\/p>\n Typically, population declines and aging housing stock conjure visions of Rust Belt decay, where land loses value and abandoned homes sell for next to nothing<\/a>. But in L.A. \u2014 despite vanishing Hollywood jobs and immigration crackdowns \u2014 housing costs remain sky-high.<\/p>\n This year, the region has seen a slight dip<\/a> in home values and a slight uptick<\/a> in vacancy rates. But L.A. County\u2019s population has been whittling down for the last decade, with 400,000 people leaving since 2016. During that stretch, home prices<\/a> and rents<\/a> have nearly doubled.<\/p>\n What gives?<\/p>\n Experts say a few factors are at play, but there\u2019s one sneaky trend that\u2019s often overlooked: household composition.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople are moving out of L.A., but households are becoming smaller, so the number of households that require housing is actually rising,\u201d said Stephanie Hawke, associate research director of land use and supply at the Terner Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n Hawke said the number of one- to two-person households is rising while three-plus-person households are falling. A single-family home that once held a family of four now holds a couple with no kids. An apartment that once held a couple with no kids now holds a single person.<\/p>\n In 2010, the average household size in L.A. County was 2.98, according to U.S. Census Data<\/a>. In 2024, it was 2.81. That might seem a marginal difference, but it actually represents hundreds of thousands of people.<\/p>\n \u201cA growing housing stock is accommodating fewer people,\u201d said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.<\/p>\n Johnson said the shifting demographics are coming from both the young and the old. Declining marriage rates among people in their 20s and 30s is leading to lower birth rates, while older people tend to live alone after their spouse dies. Both lead to smaller average households.<\/p>\n Another element keeping housing prices high is the classic law of supply and demand.<\/p>\n \u201cWe build less than we need,\u201d Hawke said.<\/p>\n State housing goals say L.A. County needs to add more than 800,000 housing units by 2029 to keep up with demand, including more than 450,000 in L.A. But despite laws meant to boost housing production, including duplex-focused Senate Bill 9<\/a> and density-focused SB 79<\/a>, the city appears well short<\/a> of that goal.<\/p>\n \u201cCalifornia has long had a housing shortage,\u201d Johnson said. \u201cSo even though we\u2019ve been building new housing over the last five years at a time of negative population growth, there\u2019s an outstanding stock of undersupply that means markets are stressed, and prices remain higher in L.A. than the rest of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n Real estate agent Bret Parsons<\/a> said in many cases, it doesn\u2019t make sense for homeowners to sell even if they want to, which exacerbates the supply shortage.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople sit on homes because they don\u2019t want to pay capital gains taxes or the \u2018Mansion tax,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cThey refuse to sell because they don\u2019t want to give that money to the government, so there are few houses available.\u201d<\/p>\n Another factor? The types of people leaving vs. the ones replacing them.<\/p>\n \u201cRemember who\u2019s moving out and moving in,\u201d Hawke said. \u201cLower-income folks are being forced out, and higher-income folks who can afford higher rents are moving in.\u201d<\/p>\n A report<\/a> from the Public Policy Institute of California showed that housing costs have become the biggest reason people leave the state. Lower-income workers without college degrees are often moving out, and they\u2019re generally replaced by higher-income workers who can pay more for housing. As a result, the market doesn\u2019t adjust, and rents stay high.<\/p>\n Parsons said the dynamic is widening the wealth gap in L.A. Homeowners stay put, enjoying ever-rising property values, while renters are forced to leave the city and start over elsewhere with no equity built up.<\/p>\n The mini exodus also brings a more existential question: Is it such a bad thing if people leave? In Southern California \u2014 a car-jammed, smog-choked metropolis that serves as the face of suburban sprawl, where rush hour is actually four hours and the hip new bagel joint always has a line down the block \u2014 is it the worst thing in the world to get a little breathing room?<\/p>\n