The third-largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded is currently ripping through the Democratic Republic of Congo, with over 1,000 reported cases and 233 confirmed deaths so far. While that would be horrible enough on its own, experts are now warning that the outbreak may have started much earlier than previously believed\u2014 meaning there could be hundreds more carriers milling around, undetected.<\/p>\n
As emergency medical professional and Ebola expert Simon Mardel told the Independent<\/a>, the true scope of the outbreak could even make it the worst Ebola emergency in history. Having worked on the frontlines<\/a> of three decades\u2019 worth of outbreaks of the terrible disease, Mardel said there\u2019s a critical gap between how many Ebola carriers health agencies have documented, and how many are actually infected.<\/p>\n \u201cI think it\u2019s safe to say it could be unprecedented,\u201d Mardel said. \u201cThe words an epidemiologist should never want to hear are \u2018unrecognized chains of transmission.’\u201d<\/p>\n In order to combat outbreaks like this, Mardel notes that emergency workers need to obtain a complete picture of who\u2019s been infected. If an outbreak reaches 100 confirmed cases, for example, the Ebola expert explains there are likely 2,000 close contacts who need to be traced and monitored. Any one of those unidentified contacts could easily be a carrier themselves \u2014 forming the \u201cunrecognized chains\u201d that could spell disaster.<\/p>\n Already, Mardel believes contact tracers \u201care lagging behind,\u201d as Ebola cases have spilled beyond the DRC and into Uganda. \u201cAll the data shows that by five days, and by some markers three days, the die is cast and you can start to see who is going to die,\u201d he told the Independent.<\/p>\n The nightmare scenario, he explains, would be for Ebola to reach Nigeria, Africa\u2019s most heavily populated country. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak \u2014 believed to have begun in Guinea before spreading to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria \u2014 was the second largest in history, claiming 11,325 lives<\/a> according to the World Health Organization.<\/p>\n The true scope of the Ebola disaster remains to be seen. But with major funding cuts<\/a> to global health programs sidelining hundreds of staffers with on-the-ground experience combating Ebola, it\u2019s already too late to prevent a tragedy.<\/p>\n