{"id":854998,"date":"2026-06-09T11:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T11:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/854998\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T11:59:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T11:59:12","slug":"kbw-upgrades-toll-citing-the-k-shaped-housing-market-favoring-the-affluent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/854998\/","title":{"rendered":"KBW upgrades Toll, citing the K-shaped housing market favoring the &#8216;affluent&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>An economy with disparate K-shaped benefits is leading to opposite outlooks for Lennar and Toll Brothers, according to Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods. The bank downgraded Lennar to underperform from market perform, while upgrading Toll Brothers to outperform from the same previous rating. KBW has an $86 price target on Lennar, which represents a 5% loss from Monday&#8217;s close. Its $161 price target on Toll Brothers indicates a 17% gain from Monday&#8217;s close. Analyst Jade Rahmani said in a Monday note that entry-level homebuilders like Lennar are facing pressures as lower-income consumers continue to struggle with the high cost of housing and other goods and services. LEN YTD mountain Lennar year-to-date. &#8220;The current backdrop remains difficult: weak consumer confidence, uncertain job market, and high mortgage rates, which will force builders to maintain elevated incentives (sub-4% buydowns in certain markets) while inflationary pressures could limit margin relief,&#8221; Rhamani wrote. &#8220;In this environment, the recovery is bifurcating with affluent consumers outperforming low\/middle-market cohorts\u2026 We estimate LEN&#8217;s entry-level mix is around 50%.&#8221; Compare that to Rahamani&#8217;s forecasts for Toll Brothers. He sees 6% to 8% order growth in his 2026 to 2027 model projections and thinks gross margins will likely be stable. &#8220;TOL&#8217;s affluent positioning&#8230; insulates it from entry-level softness, with a buyer base of high FICO scores, large downpayments, and meaningful cash-buyers, plus substantial lot premiums\/option upgrades per home,&#8221; Rhamani wrote. In 2026, shares of Toll Brothers are up just under 1.5%, but Lennar&#8217;s stock is down almost 12%.\u00a0Toll Brothers rose 1.7% in premarket trading while Lennar fell 0.3%. TOL YTD mountain Toll Brothers year-to-date.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An economy with disparate K-shaped benefits is leading to opposite outlooks for Lennar and Toll Brothers, according to&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":854999,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,81,79,3346,86478,134,18111,67,132,68],"class_list":["post-854998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-business-news","tag-economy","tag-investment-strategy","tag-lennar-corp","tag-stock-markets","tag-toll-brothers-inc","tag-united-states","tag-unitedstates","tag-us"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116720039873515454","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854998\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/854999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}