{"id":86042,"date":"2025-07-23T13:43:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T13:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/86042\/"},"modified":"2025-07-23T13:43:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T13:43:10","slug":"how-are-the-brewers-doing-this-lessons-from-a-win-streak-that-could-matter-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/86042\/","title":{"rendered":"How are the Brewers doing this? Lessons from a win streak that could matter in October"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Milwaukee Brewers have come a long way since March 31. That day, they woke up winless after their first four games, visions of torpedo bats keeping them up at night, and on the receiving end of the worst opening series ever in terms of run differential. Thirty-two runs in the hole, projections said they had a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs and were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/standings\/playoff-odds?date=2025-03-31&amp;dateDelta=\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">likely to be an under .500 team<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday night, their 11-game win streak was snapped in a 1-0 loss to the Seattle Mariners, leaving them tied for MLB\u2019s best record at 60-41 next to the Chicago Cubs. Still, what a difference a couple of months can make.<\/p>\n<p>Writ large, this is a prototypical Brewers team that excels at run prevention and struggles to slug. That stuff is still true of this team. Look at their ranks in key offensive stats and you\u2019ll see an old-school spray the ball and run team \u2014 they put balls in play, yes, but not with authority.<\/p>\n<p>Going into play last night, the Brewers\u2019 lineup ranked:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2nd in steals<\/li>\n<li>4th in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/leagues\/majors\/2025-baserunning-batting.shtml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">extra base taken percentage<\/a><\/li>\n<li>8th in strikeout rate<\/li>\n<li>7th in on-base percentage<\/li>\n<li>22nd in slugging percentage<\/li>\n<li>26th in hard-hit rate<\/li>\n<li>30th in Barrel rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Their patron saint might as well be second baseman Brice Turang, who has 18 steals, a mid-.300s OBP and will barely hit more than 10 homers this year. He\u2019s a true Brewer, not only because of what he does at the plate and the base paths, but also because he\u2019s an excellent defender \u2014 no teammate of his has played 500 innings in the field and put up a negative defensive value, according to Statcast.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s part of why Milwaukee has been so good at preventing runs, but it\u2019s not the whole reason. This staff has a top-five ERA and has some newly (and usually cheaply) acquired pitchers who are outperforming their career numbers. It\u2019s remarkable when you take a look:<\/p>\n<p>Serving pitchers of good brew<\/p>\n<tr>PitcherERA before BrewersERA with Brewers<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative freeze-col width-auto-imp-sm height-auto-imp-sm left-0-imp-sm\" style=\"width: 207px; height: 54px;\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>4.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative freeze-col width-auto-imp-sm height-auto-imp-sm left-0-imp-sm\" style=\"width: 207px; height: 53.333332px;\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>6.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.74<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative freeze-col width-auto-imp-sm height-auto-imp-sm left-0-imp-sm\" style=\"width: 207px; height: 53.333332px;\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>6.03<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative freeze-col width-auto-imp-sm height-auto-imp-sm left-0-imp-sm\" style=\"width: 207px; height: 53.333332px;\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>5.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative freeze-col width-auto-imp-sm height-auto-imp-sm left-0-imp-sm\" style=\"width: 207px; height: 53.333332px;\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>6.23<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3.33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative freeze-col width-auto-imp-sm height-auto-imp-sm left-0-imp-sm\" style=\"width: 207px; height: 53.333332px;\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>4.88<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3.34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<p>Pitching coach Chris Hook deserves a lot of credit, but this has to be seen as a sign of organizational good health \u2014 it takes good analysts, scouts and executives to pull this off at scale.<\/p>\n<p>The Brewers do this all the time \u2014 in the last five years, they\u2019ve beaten their projected runs allowed \u2026 four times. And the other year, they pretty much performed exactly as projected. They consistently have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders\/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=36&amp;month=0&amp;ind=1&amp;team=23%2Cts&amp;startdate=&amp;enddate=&amp;season1=2020&amp;season=2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">above-average stuff and also locate well<\/a> \u2014 \u201cthrow good stuff in the zone,\u201d as Tobias Myers said in the spring \u2014 and do so with pitchers who didn\u2019t cost a lot to acquire.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, regression could be coming for a staff like this, especially when you consider that over the last two weeks, they\u2019ve produced an ERA under three as a team. You can say that of any team during a glorious streak. Any win streak takes a certain amount of luck to go with the talent to pull it off.<\/p>\n<p>But is there something happening during this streak that could be more important for the Brewers?<\/p>\n<p>On the pitching side, this was a team that was scrambling for starters at one point. Ten pitchers took the ball in the first inning in March and April, and three of them are no longer with the organization, with another three in the minor leagues. The emergence of Jacob Misiorowski and the return of Brandon Woodruff (who hasn\u2019t walked anyone since his return) have been huge for the pitching staff. The streak is, to a large extent, the result of the staff returning to form.<\/p>\n<p>On the hitting side, there might be a glimpse of something a little different, something that might help them overcome their difficulties in October so far. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/1234635\/2019\/09\/24\/sarris-what-if-anything-predicts-a-teams-success-in-the-postseason\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Teams that slug tend<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/homers-are-still-the-key-to-winning-in-playoffs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">win in the postseason<\/a>, and while this team hasn\u2019t slugged all that well on the season as a whole, July is a different story. Their slugging is up to 16th, their hard-hit rate is 14th and it\u2019s instructive to see who\u00a0is hitting the ball harder in particular.<\/p>\n<p>Hitting the ball harder?<\/p>\n<tr>HitterApril Hard HitJuly Hard Hit<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.2);\">\n<p>45.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.5);\">\n<p>66.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.4);\">\n<p>51.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.4);\">\n<p>52.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.1);\">\n<p>38.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.4);\">\n<p>51.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>33.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.4);\">\n<p>51.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.3);\">\n<p>46.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.3);\">\n<p>49.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.3);\">\n<p>47.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.3);\">\n<p>47.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.3);\">\n<p>47.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.2);\">\n<p>44.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>32.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>29.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td style=\"background-color: rgba(81, 158, 65, 0.3);\">\n<p>47.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>27.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>28.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>26.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt player relative\"\/>\n<td>\n<p>32.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>26.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<p>The key names that stick out are William Contreras, Isaac Collins and Andrew Vaughn, for different reasons. Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich are the key power contributors on this team, and they\u2019ve had some fluctuation, but they\u2019ve also mostly produced. A healthy Rhys Hoskins will add pop, of course. But a lineup like this needs to field \u201csurprising pop\u201d across the lineup if it wants to slug enough to win in October, and that\u2019s where Contreras, Collins and Vaughn could come in.<\/p>\n<p>Only three players have lost more pop since last year than Contreras. He\u2019s been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/william-contreras-playing-through-fracture-left-finger\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">playing with a fractured finger<\/a> that sounds pretty painful, but this could be a good sign. While the top-line results haven\u2019t shown him coming out of the slump just yet, this improvement in hard hit rate shows that he could still return to being the 20-homer hitter he\u2019s been the last three seasons.<\/p>\n<p>Collins is 28 years old and may not have a ton of ceiling left \u2014 he also showed little power at different stops in the minors \u2014 but he\u2019s also shown clear progression in his career. He hit fewer ground balls and hit the ball harder once he had an offseason with the Brewers between 2023 and 2024. Players with his current Hard Hit and Barrel rates last year hit an average of 15 homers \u2014 that\u2019s not nothing!<\/p>\n<p>Vaughn may be a role player, stepping in due to injuries, but he\u2019s always hit the ball hard \u2014 often on the ground and to the opposite field, where they haven\u2019t turned into slugging. With the Brewers, he\u2019s moved a couple inches closer to the plate and is getting the ball out in front just a bit more. If they can unlock the link between his good exit velos and better in-game power, he could improve the bottom of this lineup.<\/p>\n<p>The key to Brewers baseball has always been run prevention, achieved often through the intersection of good defense, a great bullpen and strong pitching coaching. If Milwaukee is going to extend this streak into postseason success, it\u2019ll still depend on Freddy Peralta, the resurgent Woodruff, the returning Nestor Cortes and, of course, the wunderkind Misiorowski, along with stud relievers Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe out of the pen. The infield will pick it, and the outfield will snag it.<\/p>\n<p>But in October, getting over the hump may require some thump. Chourio and Yelich need some help, and maybe somewhere between Collins, Vaughn, and \u2014 most likely, perhaps \u2014 Contreras, the hard hits that have been fueling this good run will presage the power production that separates the title contenders from the playoff hopefuls.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">(Top photo of Joey Ortiz: Alika Jenner \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Milwaukee Brewers have come a long way since March 31. That day, they woke up winless after&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":86043,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[4247,1266,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-86042","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-milwaukee-brewers","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-sports","11":"tag-united-states","12":"tag-unitedstates","13":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114902847206188925","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86042\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}