US importers, not the foreign-based exporters who are shipping them goods from overseas, are shouldering the cost of President Trump\u2019s tariffs \u2014 and higher prices for US shoppers are \u201cin the pipeline,\u201d according to Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n
In a research note, analysts at the German financial giant contradicted the White House\u2019s<\/a> assertions that foreign exporters abroad are on the hook for Trump\u2019s trade taxes, which have reeled in more than $100 billion in tariff revenue<\/a> so far this year<\/p>\n The White House disputed the analysts\u2019 assertions on Wednesday.<\/p>\n The analysts examined US import prices for manufactured goods during the second quarter, when the tariffs were implemented. The bank said the behavior of import prices helps reveal who is actually paying the duties.<\/p>\n \u201cIf foreigners were paying for the tariffs, we would expect to see a sharp reduction in the price of imported goods as they absorbed it into their own margins,\u201d the bank wrote.<\/p>\n Analysts at Deutsche Bank say that US consumers should brace for higher prices as a result of President Trump\u2019s tariff policies. Davide Bonaldo\/SOPA Images\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n Instead, the data show only \u201cmild price reductions,\u201d mainly from Canada and, to a lesser extent, the UK.<\/p>\n In China\u2019s case, where average tariff rates rose more than 30%, dollar import prices dropped by just 1%, said the bank.<\/p>\n \u201cTo be sure, there are specific industry examples of a greater impact,\u201d Deutsche Bank acknowledged.<\/p>\n \u201cFor now, however, the top-down macro evidence seems clear: Americans are mostly paying for the tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n Since consumer price gains have remained relatively contained, the analysts said it suggests US importers are absorbing the costs in the form of squeezed profit margins rather than passing them on to consumers.<\/p>\n \u201cThe top-down macro evidence seems clear: Americans are mostly paying for the tariffs,\u201d according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Getty Images<\/p>\n Deutsche Bank drew three conclusions: first, exporters abroad \u201care not yet feeling much pain from the tariffs,\u201d which could strengthen their bargaining power ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline.<\/p>\n Second, there may be \u201cmore pressure on US consumer prices in the pipeline.\u201d Third, because the economic cost is falling more heavily on the US, the situation adds \u201can added dollar negative\u201d to the broader macroeconomic outlook.<\/p>\n White House spokesman Kush Desai panned the Deutsche Bank analysis, pointing to a White House analysis that the administration says is proof that \u201cprices of imported goods have actually fallen this year despite President Trump\u2019s historic tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe Administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world\u2019s biggest and best consumer market,\u201d Desai told The Post.<\/p>\n Since Trump rolled out his \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs, the US has raked in $64 billion in customs duties, according to data. Getty Images<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that imported goods prices have fallen this year<\/a> and declined faster than overall goods prices since February \u2014 \u201ccontradict[ing] claims that tariffs or tariff\u2011fears would lead to an acceleration of inflation\u201d \u2014 a pattern the CEA says holds across core goods, durables and nondurables.<\/p>\n From December 2024 through May 2025, overall PCE goods prices rose 0.4% (about a 1% annualized pace) while the imported component fell 0.1%, according to CEA data.<\/p>\n A similar breakdown of consumer price index data shows imported goods deflated 0.8% while aggregate CPI goods were flat. When services are stripped out, the CEA finds outright import\u2011goods deflation beginning in March.<\/p>\n CEA also noted that lower energy prices \u2014 more heavily weighted in the import basket \u2014 help explain the gap but that imported core goods still rose less than overall core.<\/p>\n The White House analysis concludes tariffs are \u201cnot a first\u2011order consideration for inflation\u201d and have \u201cnot reduced the disinflationary impulse from imported goods\u201d through May.<\/p>\n Honda vehicles are lined up at a vehicle storage yard at an industrial port near Tokyo as car companies say they have seen profits dip as a result of tariffs. REUTERS<\/p>\n Last week, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration raked in $64 billion in customs duties during the second quarter of this year which ended in late June.<\/p>\n The three-month period began when Trump rolled out his \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs that included a universal 10% levy on imports from most nations in addition to higher duties on certain sectors such as steel and foreign cars.<\/p>\n Domestic automakers have indicated that tariffs are eating into their profits. General Motors, the Detroit-based producer of iconic brands such as Cadillac and Buick, told investors this week that Trump\u2019s trade policies have cost the company $1.1 billion in the most recent quarter.<\/a><\/p>\n Stellantis, the Netherlands-based parent of\u00a0US\u00a0brands Ram and Jeep, said Monday that it lost $350 million\u00a0as a result of Trump\u2019s tariff policies<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Other multinationals such as Texas Instruments<\/a>, ASM International, AMD and Best Buy \u2014 companies that are vulnerable to tariffs due to their reliance on key commodities such as steel, aluminum and semiconductors \u2014 have all cited tariffs as one of the reasons behind weakening demand and lower profits<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the latest inflation figures indicate that consumers are starting to feel the pinch of tariffs.<\/p>\n The headline inflation figure rose 2.7% year over year in June, up from 2.4% in May, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices climbed month-over-month by 0.3% \u2014 the largest monthly gain since January after a 0.1% increase in May.<\/p>\n Headline inflation has now risen for a second straight month after a period of steady decline earlier this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"US importers, not the foreign-based exporters who are shipping them goods from overseas, are shouldering the cost of…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":87278,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,69,79,6769,2175,130,277,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-87277","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-prices","12":"tag-tariffs","13":"tag-trade","14":"tag-trump","15":"tag-united-states","16":"tag-unitedstates","17":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87277\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}