$100 billion or more in near-term sanctions relief<\/a>. Indeed, that was one of the cardinal reasons that President Trump himself blasted the agreement as the \u201cworst deal ever.\u201d But Trump\u2019s MoU repeats that error, and does so in potentially more generous terms than the 2015 JCPOA. In addition to a rollback of U.S. and international sanctions, the MoU commits America to help raise \u201cat least $300 billion\u201d for the \u201crehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.\u201d (Article 6) Such a provision is nothing short of an economic lifeline for the beleaguered Iranian regime. If history is any indicator, it will also be a boon to Iran\u2019s remaining rulers in their effort to rebuild their government\u2019s strategic capabilities and military might. <\/p>\nPROTECTION FOR HEZBOLLAH. For decades, Hezbollah has served as Iran\u2019s chief terrorist proxy, and its mechanism of choice to shape Lebanese national politics. In recent weeks, that status has come under threat as a result of renewed Israeli military action and a newfound commitment from the Lebanese government to disarm the Shi\u2019ite militia. However, the new MoU effectively blocks any such effort, making clear that Lebanon is a front in the current U.S.-Iran confrontation and insisting on an \u201cimmediate and permanent end\u201d to hostilities there. (Article 1) That pledge serves to frustrate any meaningful effort by either Israel or the Lebanese state to eliminate (or even potentially lessen) the terror group\u2019s current, corrosive influence. <\/p>\n
AN IRANIAN STRATEGIC VETO. Perhaps the most egregious aspect of the Memorandum, however, deals not with the disposition of the Strait of Hormuz or Iran\u2019s nuclear program, but America\u2019s future regional presence. As part of the agreement, the Trump administration pledges that, in exchange for Iran\u2019s abiding by nuclear curbs, the United States will not \u201cstrengthen its forces in the region.\u201d (Article 9) That formulation puts Iran at the very center of U.S. regional policy, providing Tehran potential veto power over America\u2019s military footprint in the Middle East, irrespective of what other crises or contingencies might arise there. <\/p>\n
Coming days will undoubtedly bring us all of the expected defenses from the President\u2019s political stalwarts: that the deal is a near term victory because it stabilizes global markets, that it will hinge on strict Iranian compliance, and that it doesn\u2019t bear any resemblance to the 2015 JCPOA. Indeed, surrogates like Vice President JD Vance and Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL-13) have already begun making precisely those points on assorted talk shows and social media platforms. Still, an initial parsing of the details makes it hard not to conclude that the Iran war has ended not with a bang but a whimper \u2013 and, at least for now, a resounding Iranian victory at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The new U.S.-Iranian memorandum of understanding is a diplomatic victory for the Iranian regime – and a problem…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":875042,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2],"tags":[83,99,114386,50,2053,277,1439],"class_list":["post-875041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-mou","tag-news","tag-tehran","tag-trump","tag-u-s"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116769157626654356","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/875041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=875041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/875041\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/875042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=875041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=875041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=875041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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