Michael Schmitz, a geophysics professor at Sim\u00f3n Bol\u00edvar University and Central University of Venezuela, said he feared casualties could reach 50,000 people. That\u2019s the midpoint of the most likely range estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey, which estimated there\u2019s a 44% chance the death toll could be 10,000 to 100,000.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s still too early to draw definitive conclusions for why the damage, and death toll, were so high. But initial photos appear to show collapsed buildings \u201cin some cases higher than 15 stories, with significant construction deficiencies and poor supervision during the construction phase,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez said. <\/p>\n
A likely contributing factor: an emphasis on profit over safety.<\/p>\n
The widespread damage likely reflects building construction \u201cadapted to investors\u2019 needs rather than structures properly designed and constructed in accordance with seismic code requirements,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez said. \u201cUnfortunately, this is a common problem in Latin America.\u201d<\/p>\n
N\u00fa\u00f1ez was coauthor of a study<\/a> published in 2023 in the journal Buildings that examined a type of concrete building higher than 20 stories and built to minimum Venezuelan code requirements. The study found those buildings placed on soft soils had a more than 80% chance of collapse when shaken violently in an earthquake. <\/p>\n \u201cThe situation may be even more critical for buildings designed according to older codes,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez said.<\/p>\n But outdated safety standards and a build-on-the-cheap ethos are likely just among various factors explaining why so many buildings across Venezuela came crashing down in this week\u2019s earthquakes<\/a>, the largest to hit the country in more than 125 years. <\/p>\n Contributing factors include concrete buildings designed without accounting for local soft-soil conditions, using a type of structural system in buildings taller than 10 stories that are vulnerable to earthquakes, and, \u201cmost critically, insufficient oversight during the construction process due to weakened institutional supervision,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez said.<\/p>\n \u201cSuch institutional control existed in the past, but it has deteriorated under the current governing authorities,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe problem is a lack of control in building standards,\u201d Alejandro Giuliano, former director of Venezuela\u2019s National Institute of Seismic Prevention, told the Venezuelan broadcaster Radio Mil20 a day after the twin quakes. \u201cIt\u2019s fundamental that the norms of seismic-resistance construction are respected.\u201d<\/p>\n That the country had not experienced a mass-casualty quake in more than a quarter-century was no excuse.<\/p>\n \u201cOne cannot be surprised at this event,\u201d Giuliano said. \u201cVenezuela has a history of large earthquakes.\u201d<\/p>\n Most of the worst damage appears to have hit older concrete frame buildings, as well as masonry buildings and informal hillside construction, said Ram\u00f3n Mata Lemus, the lead author of the 2023 study<\/a> and an assistant professor who specializes in seismic behavior at the Universidad San Sebasti\u00e1n in Chile.<\/p>\n Another flaw: \u201csoft-story\u201d buildings, where the ground floor is flimsier than the upper floors, making it easier for them to topple in a quake. <\/p>\n \u201cThe most severe cases involved complete or partial building collapses, often associated with soft-story mechanisms in buildings with open ground floors, as well as slab and balcony failures in multistory residential structures,\u201d Mata said, adding that ceilings and slabs have collapsed in public and residential areas, pavement has ruptured, masonry walls have cracked and facades fell off buildings. <\/p>\n Although the timing of when quakes will strike is notoriously unpredictable, Venezuela has long been known to be vulnerable. <\/p>\n The country sits on the edge of a giant east-west fault that is the boundary between the Caribbean and South American tectonic plates. <\/p>\n However, international researchers have concentrated less on the southern edge of the Caribbean plate and the potential seismic consequences for Venezuela, a nation of 28 million people, than on dangers on the northern edge of the plate. Movement on the northern edge of the Caribbean plate caused the magnitude 7 earthquake in 2010 in Haiti that killed 316,000 people, one of the worst natural disasters in modern history.<\/p>\n The last big quake to dramatically shake up Caracas was in 1967, when a magnitude 6.6<\/a> left 240 people dead. There was also a magnitude 6.4<\/a> quake in 2009, but the offshore epicenter was farther away from the city.<\/p>\n
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