{"id":898909,"date":"2026-06-28T16:27:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T16:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/898909\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T16:27:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T16:27:26","slug":"san-antonios-top-5-races-to-watch-in-the-november-2026-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/898909\/","title":{"rendered":"San Antonio’s top 5 races to watch in the November 2026 election"},"content":{"rendered":"

As\u00a0Texas takes on a bigger role<\/a>\u00a0in the battle for control of the U.S. House, San Antonio has an unusual number of targeted races drawing money and attention to this area in November.<\/p>\n

So-called midterm elections are often seen as referendums on the party controlling the White House, causing its members to lose seats.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why President Donald Trump had state leaders redraw the congressional maps <\/a>last summer to squeeze more Republican-friendly districts out of Texas \u2014 including a new targeted district here in San Antonio<\/a>. Democrats are also targeting a seat<\/a> that hasn\u2019t been on the map for years, where U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) resigned amid scandal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would not be surprised to see $30 million worth of TV ads between TX23 and TX35 in the last 15 weeks [before the November election],\u201d said San Antonio political strategist Kelton Morgan, who got his start working for former U.S. senator and presidential nominee John McCain (R-Arizona).<\/p>\n

In non-presidential election years like 2026, all members of Congress and the Texas House are up for reelection. Though the Texas House is less likely to switch hands than Congress, two of San Antonio\u2019s state legislative races<\/a> are getting much attention, too.<\/p>\n

So-called midterm elections are also when Texas elects its governor and other statewide officeholders \u2014 plus this year one of the state\u2019s two U.S. Senate seats is on the ballot as well.<\/p>\n

Texas voters typically see more action in the primary for those races than the general election, because the districts are so gerrymandered, and because the state and county are so overwhelmingly controlled by a single party.<\/p>\n

The Bexar County Judge race, for example, likely already saw Democrat Ron Nirenberg<\/a> spend far more money defeating fellow Democrat Peter Sakai in the primary than he will against Republican Patrick Von Dohlen<\/a> this fall. Same with the District Attorney race for Democrat Luz Elena Chapa<\/a>, who faces Republican Ashley Foster<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But experts say San Antonio has a big role to play in some major races this year, including the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico<\/a> and Republican Ken Paxton<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That race will see tens of millions spent in the coming months, with much money directed at voters in this area who either sat out or switched parties in the 2024 election \u2014 a critical problem to a Democrats\u2019 chances at breaking through in a statewide race.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe most competitive thing on the ballot is probably the U.S. Senate race,\u201d said Morgan. \u201c[The targeted San Antonio-area congressional races] are still drawn for Republicans. There was always an uphill fight for whoever the Democrat is on the other side.\u201d<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll update this list closer to November as these races develop further. <\/p>\n

But for now, here are the top races the reporters and editors of the San Antonio Report will be watching in the November 2026 midterm election. <\/p>\n

1. Texas Senate race<\/p>\n

\"\"Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are facing off in a U.S. Senate race that\u2019s expected to draw hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign spending to Texas. Credit: Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

The U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico<\/a> and Republican Ken Paxton<\/a> is the top-of-the-ticket for Texans in 2026 \u2014 meaning the campaign spending, grassroots organization and messaging from these two candidates will set the tone for every other race on the ballot.<\/p>\n

Right now Democrats are feeling good about that prospect, because their young, telegenic nominee is raking in cash to assemble the most modern and professionalized campaign that money can buy. <\/p>\n

But they\u2019ve also watched candidates do this and still fail for several cycles now \u2014 with Beto O\u2019Rourke coming the closest<\/a> in his 2018 race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz \u2014 and still losing by about 215,000 votes.<\/p>\n

\"\"Democratic supporters and voters cheer for Senate candidate James Talarico on Friday. Credit: Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

Now we\u2019re in another midterm of a Republican-controlled White House, which could offer Texas Democrats their best shot in many years at capturing a statewide office. <\/p>\n

National Republicans preferred their odds<\/a> with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), and broke spending records<\/a> warning their party that Paxton was too damaged from scandal<\/a> to win a race in these conditions. <\/p>\n

But GOP voters chose Paxton by a 28-point margin<\/a> in the primary runoff \u2014 something the candidate\u2019s supporters say means he\u2019s best-poised to excite voters in a year where they\u2019re lacking Trump on the ballot to help turnout.<\/p>\n

Republicans control 53 out of 100 U.S. Senate seats. Democrats would need to flip 4 seats to take control this year, and Texas is among their best prospects<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trump set a high-water mark<\/a> for Republicans in 2024, leveraging big frustration with the border to carry the state by 13.7% points. <\/p>\n

Those dynamics have changed some as he moved on to more controversial immigration enforcement tactics, Morgan said, but Talarico faces a daunting task winning back roughly 750,000 reliable Democratic voters who either flipped for Trump two years ago, or didn\u2019t vote at all. <\/p>\n

Many of them are Hispanic voters in Bexar County and South Texas, where Talarico is expected to spend much time<\/a> this fall.<\/p>\n

\"\"Texas Attorney General and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Ken Paxton speaks to delegates and attendees at the 2026 Texas State Republican Convention on Friday, June 12, 2026 in Houston. Credit: Eddie Gaspar \/ The Texas Tribune<\/p>\n

Meanwhile Paxton has to sew his party back together<\/a> to ensure voters don\u2019t skip out this year from lasting divisions in the primary and sinking approval for Trump<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein wrote<\/a> in June, \u201cwho stays home may threaten Republicans this year as much as who votes.\u201d<\/p>\n

2. Texas House District 118<\/p>\n

\"\"Democrat Kristian Carranza and Republican Jorge Borrego, candidates for Texas House District 118, are shown. Credit: Vincent Reyna and Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

This\u00a0Southside state House district<\/a> was a blue stronghold before state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) flipped it in 2022 \u2014 a good year for Republicans.<\/p>\n

In gerrymandered Texas, it\u2019s one of only state legislative districts that remains competitive enough to go either way in November, and Democrats think it should be theirs now that they\u2019re headed into favorable midterm conditions. <\/p>\n

Their nominee, Kristian Carranza<\/a>,\u00a0worked on many Texas Democrats\u2019 campaigns before running against Lujan in 2024, and she\u00a0raised more money<\/a>\u00a0than any first-time state House candidate in Texas history.<\/p>\n

Lujan left the seat to run for Congress this year, and GOP primary voters didn\u2019t go along with his plan to nominate a moderate in his place. <\/p>\n

Instead Carranza will go up against conservative Republican Jorge Borrego<\/a>, an equally well-connected up-and-comer in his party<\/a>, who helped shepherd Gov. Greg Abbott\u2019s school voucher plan while working at the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation.<\/p>\n

Because so few districts are competitive, it\u2019s unlikely Democrats could flip enough seats to upend Republicans\u2019 26-seat majority in the Texas House this election cycle.<\/p>\n

But both state and national Democrats consider Texas House District 118<\/a>\u00a0a must-win if they\u2019re going to gain any power in the chamber<\/a> responsible for drawing Texas\u2019 political maps, and there\u2019s national money pouring in to help their cause. <\/p>\n

In a tough election cycle, Republicans aren\u2019t sure if they can\u2019t hold onto this seat, but it\u2019s still likely to be a major battleground.<\/p>\n

HD118 overlaps with a fiercely contested congressional district \u2014 where both parties are fighting over once-Democratic voters who either didn\u2019t show up in 2024, or swung toward President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201c[House District] 118 is completely housed within [Congressional District 35], and it also includes a significant chunk of Bexar County that is absolutely critical [for Democrats in 2026],\u201d \u00a0Texas Majority PAC Executive Director Katherine Fischer said in February. \u201d \u2026 We need to see better turnout in that [area] in order to win statewide.\u201d<\/p>\n

3. Texas\u2019 35th Congressional District<\/p>\n

\"\"Republican Carlos De La Cruz, left, and Democrat Johnny Garcia, right, both faced hard-fought primary runoffs to win their party\u2019s nomination in TX23. Credit: Vince Reyna and Jo E. Norris for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

The new 35th Congressional District is a product of President Donald Trump\u2019s efforts<\/a>\u00a0to squeeze more Republican congressional districts out of Texas \u2014 by breaking up safe blue districts like the one represented by U.S. Rep. Greg Casar (D-San Antonio).<\/p>\n

\"\"Redistricting turned Texas\u2019 35th Congressional District into a district Trump would have carried by more than 10 percentage points. Credit: Courtesy \/ Texas Majority PAC<\/p>\n

Democrats were at first skeptical<\/a> about their chances in a district Trump would have carried by more than 10 percentage points.<\/p>\n

But as the president has become less popular, they now consider it one of their\u00a0biggest battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Casar\u2019s old district was turned into a GOP pickup opportunity by combining part of San Antonio with three counties Trump carried in 2024: Karnes, Wilson and Guadalupe.<\/p>\n

That drew a lot of interest from San Antonio\u2019s local political talent, but the GOP wound up with\u00a0Carlos De La Cruz<\/a> as its nominee \u2014 a retired U.S. Air Force veteran who scored a Trump endorsement<\/a> in the primary, but wasn\u2019t well-known among local party activists in Bexar County.<\/p>\n

Roughly 70 percent of the district\u2019s voters live in Bexar County, but De La Cruz won a primary runoff against state Rep.\u00a0John Lujan<\/a>\u00a0(R-San Antonio) by running up the score in the more rural parts, currently represented by his sister, U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg). <\/p>\n

His low-visibility campaign is now slowly working to introduce him<\/a> to voters here for a general election. <\/p>\n

Democrats tried and failed to recruit a seasoned candidate for this race, but they\u2019re pleased to have at least gotten a moderate through the primary<\/a>.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve\u00a0spent big helping a first-time candidate<\/a>, longtime Bexar County Sheriff\u2019s Deputy\u00a0Johnny Garcia<\/a>, defeat a more progressive opponent in hopes of winning back Hispanic voters who swung toward Trump. <\/p>\n

Morgan said it\u2019s unlikely the campaigns themselves will matter much from here, as national Democrats line up big ad reservations<\/a>\u00a0for the fall and Republican money is certain to follow.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are some cases where the campaigns themselves are incidental to everything that\u2019s going on, and I think TX35 might see that,\u201d Morgan said. \u201cWhat happens on the ground in South Texas this year probably doesn\u2019t matter all that much because 10 times that much money is going to come in on TV and digital and mail from Washington.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whoever this district elects in November will have a big job representing San Antonio in a delegation that\u00a0shrunk in redistricting<\/a>, and then lost seasoned members to\u00a0retirements<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0scandal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

4. Texas\u2019 23rd Congressional District<\/p>\n

\"\"Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, left, and Republican Brandon Herrera, right, are facing off in Texas\u2019 23rd Congressional District. Credit: Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

This massive San Antonio-to-El Paso district was once a top target for both parties \u2014 taken off the map by redistricting after the 2020 Census, which added more Republicans. <\/p>\n

Now Democrats are ramping up to spend here again, even though the makeup remains far more challenging than the typical Congressional target.<\/p>\n

Their reason for optimism is mostly due to turmoil among Republicans.<\/p>\n

First the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), was pushed to a runoff<\/a> in his primary. Then a scandalous affair forced Gonzales to\u00a0drop his reelection bid<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0resign before the end of his term<\/a>, automatically making his runoff opponent, 30-year-old gun content creator Brandon Herrera<\/a>, the GOP nominee. <\/p>\n

Herrera\u2019s\u00a0attention-grabbing YouTube channel\u00a0has opened him up to criticism<\/a> from Republicans and Democrats alike, but he now has the backing of national GOP leaders<\/a> who once distanced themselves from him. <\/p>\n

The district supported President Donald Trump by nearly 15 percentage points in 2024, and Herrera says\u00a0he doesn\u2019t see the need to moderate<\/a>\u00a0or court a broader audience for the general election.<\/p>\n

In a surprising move, however, House Democrats\u2019 largest super PAC has already reserved ads here<\/a> for the fall.<\/p>\n

Other left-leaning groups<\/a>\u00a0have also piled in to help Democratic nominee\u00a0Katy Padilla Stout<\/a>, a former teacher and child welfare attorney who was recruited to help capitalize<\/a> on a potential GOP meltdown. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe fundamentals of this district are pretty hard, and it\u2019s important to still be real that Katy\u2019s in a very hard race,\u201d said Emma Brown, a former national Democratic operative who is now executive director of the Giffords gun safety group, which is helping Padilla Stout<\/a>. \u201cBut Brandon Herrera and his self-inflicted challenges have really put this race on the map.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gov. Greg Abbott could call a special election to fill this seat before November, but hasn\u2019t given any indications that he plans to.<\/p>\n

5. Texas House District 121<\/p>\n

\"\"Republican Marc LaHood, left, and Democrat Zack Dunn, right, will face off in Texas House District 121. Credit: Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

This Northside state House race is once again a target for Democrats, who continue to hope the GOP\u2019s rightward shift will drive away enough moderates to put it in play.<\/p>\n

The old Joe Straus district<\/a> includes wealthy suburbs of San Antonio, which favored more business-centric Republicans. <\/p>\n

But\u00a0Texas House District 121<\/a> added some redder territory up north after the 2020 Census, and then its longtime incumbent fell <\/a>to an insurgent primary challenger, Marc LaHood<\/a>, who had the help of conservative groups<\/a>.<\/p>\n

LaHood, a criminal defense attorney, went on to align himself with the party\u2019s conservative wing. He helped Gov. Greg Abbott pass his long-desired school voucher plan<\/a>, bucked powerful business interests<\/a>\u00a0on their legal reform bills and raised money for Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary.<\/p>\n

Texas Democrats have named the race a top target in 2026, and on paper it looks like one of their best prospects.<\/p>\n

But LaHood\u2019s been relatively popular, and Republicans and Democrats alike say it\u2019s a tough race.<\/p>\n

The establishment wing of the GOP tried to push back with a primary challenge that went nowhere this year<\/a>, despite much money spent on both sides<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Democrats are leaning on a first-time candidate in\u00a0Zack Dunn<\/a>, an assistant District Attorney at Bexar County.<\/p>\n

Worth a watch<\/p>\n

\"\"Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state lawmaker from Austin, is challenging Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in November of 2026. Credit: Jo E. Norris and Amber Esparza for the San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

Texas Governor\u2019s race: <\/strong>Republican Gov.\u00a0Greg Abbott<\/a>\u00a0is seeking a fourth term, and would be the state\u2019s longest serving governor if he completes it. <\/p>\n

He\u2019s a prolific fundraiser who overwhelmingly defeated Democrat Beto O\u2019Rourke in 2022, so most of the ambitious Democrats instead looked at the U.S. Senate race this year, where the nominee will get help from national groups trying to help their party get to a majority.<\/p>\n

Abbott faces an energetic opponent in state Rep.\u00a0Gina Hinojosa<\/a>\u00a0(D-Austin), but she\u2019s not well-known among voters and hasn\u2019t raised much money. We\u2019ll check back in on this race closer to the fall.<\/p>\n

Texas Attorney General race:<\/strong> With Attorney General Ken Paxton\u00a0running for U.S. Senate<\/a>\u00a0instead of reelection, Texans will elect someone new to one of the most powerful statewide positions this year.<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s top lawyer\u00a0has plenty of day-to-day responsibilitie<\/a>s, like consumer protection and enforcing anti-trust laws. But in a red state, recent AGs have also used the role to\u00a0aggressively advance conservative ideology<\/a>\u00a0through the courts.<\/p>\n

The GOP nominee state Sen.\u00a0Mayes Middleton<\/a>\u00a0(R-Galveston) is an oil and gas heir whose culture wars at the capitol \u2014 most notably bathroom bills and keeping men out of women\u2019s sports \u2014 have made him popular with the conservative base.<\/p>\n

Democrats nominated state Sen.\u00a0Nathan Johnson<\/a>\u00a0(D-Dallas), who flipped a Republican-held state Senate seat in 2018, who has been campaigning a message that AG offices are sometimes the first places where Republican power starts to crumble in red states.<\/p>\n

Fourth Court of Appeals:<\/strong> This regional appellate court\u00a0elected three new Republican judges<\/a>\u00a0last election cycle \u2014 at a time when the local GOP had\u00a0completely given up<\/a>\u00a0on trying to flip the county\u2019s district court bench seats.<\/p>\n

\"\"Bert Richardson attends a voter rally event for Sen. John Cornyn at the Towers on Park Lane on the first day of early voting for the runoff election on May 18, 2026. Credit: Amber Esparza \/ San Antonio Report<\/p>\n

The court is located in San Antonio, but judges have to campaign across a 32-county voting base that includes parts of the Hill County and South Texas, and has swung between supporting Democrats and Republicans in recent years.<\/p>\n

This year a big contest is shaping up<\/a> for an opening in the chief justice position, between Republican Bert Richardson<\/a>, who is retiring from a higher court, and Democrat\u00a0Antonia \u201cToni\u201d Arteaga<\/a>, who is one of Bexar County\u2019s longest-serving district court judges.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As\u00a0Texas takes on a bigger role\u00a0in the battle for control of the U.S. House, San Antonio has an…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":898910,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5133],"tags":[17032,336901,5229,245266,280036,23232,149163,246145,271280,18880,102298,34162,25429,169791,7202,7203,358,232817,109646,44543,76630,7453,3187,7815,67,586,132,5230,68,2969,364140],"class_list":["post-898909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-antonio","tag-2026-election","tag-2026-texas-attorney-general-race","tag-america","tag-brandon-herrera","tag-carlos-de-la-cruz","tag-james-talarico","tag-johnny-garcia","tag-jorge-borrego","tag-katy-padilla-stout","tag-ken-paxton","tag-kristian-carranza","tag-marc-lahood","tag-mayes-middleton","tag-nathan-johnson","tag-san-antonio","tag-sanantonio","tag-texas","tag-texas-23rd-congressional-district","tag-texas-house-district-118","tag-texas-house-district-121","tag-texas-35th-congressional-district","tag-top-story","tag-tx","tag-typedaily","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa","tag-zack-dunn"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/898909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=898909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/898909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/898910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=898909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=898909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=898909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}