{"id":907398,"date":"2026-07-02T11:35:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T11:35:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/907398\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T11:35:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T11:35:35","slug":"trump-throws-the-economy-into-even-more-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/907398\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Throws The Economy Into Even More Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"President<\/p>\n

WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 06, 2025: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after signing executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House. (Photo by Alex Wong\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Getty Images<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, July 1, 2026, President Donald Trump decided to sink the long-term renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement. This is the one that the first Trump administration negotiated to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.<\/p>\n

Officials, negotiators, and industry executives have been looking at this for a long time. The possibility was built into the frame of the original agreement through Article 34.7: Review and Term Extension<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis Agreement shall terminate 16 years after the date of its entry into force, unless each Party confirms it wishes to continue this Agreement for a new 16-year term, in accordance with the procedures set forth in paragraphs 2 through 6,\u201d the trade agreement said. \u201cOn the sixth anniversary of the entry into force of this Agreement, the Commission shall meet to conduct a \u2018joint review\u2019 of the operation of this Agreement, review any recommendations for action submitted by a Party, and decide on any appropriate actions. Each Party may provide recommendations for the Commission to take action at least one month before the Commission\u2019s joint review meeting takes place.\u201d<\/p>\n

That sixth anniversary was July 1, 2026. If all three of the signatories agreed in writing to extend the term, it would last under the existing terms for another 16 years<\/p>\n

Any of the three signatories, whether the U.S., Mexico, or Canada, could decide not to extend the agreement for an additional 16-year period. If so, then the countries meet every year \u201cfor the remainder of the term of this Agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n

The remainder of that term is another 10 years, meaning, in theory, a decade of annual meetings to decide what happens. Trade negotiations are complex discussions that can easily take months before the parties reach a final agreement.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you drag us into a constant review process, you\u2019re going to choke off investment,\u201d Mexico Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said last week on a podcast, according to The New York Times. \u201cThat completely defeats the purpose<\/a> of replacing your Asian suppliers. You can\u2019t have it both ways.\u201d<\/p>\n

Until February 2019, China was the largest trade partner<\/a> of the U.S., as the Library of Congress explains. Then came the trade war, started by Trump in his first term, and then came the USMCA, intended to replace the previous North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico and Canada became this country\u2019s two largest trade partners. Economies of the three have been tightly integrated.<\/p>\n

In a January 29, 2020, ceremony, Trump said, \u201cThe USMCA is the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement<\/a> ever achieved. There\u2019s never been anything like it. Other countries are now looking at it, but there can\u2019t be a border like that because, believe it or not, that is by far the biggest border anywhere in the world, in terms of economy, in terms of people.\u201d<\/p>\n

The best deal ever. A \u201ccolossal victory for our farmers, ranchers, energy workers, factory workers, and American workers in all 50 states.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now the U.S. wants changes. Fair enough, it\u2019s been six years. Sometimes things, and what people want, change. If everyone recognizes that and negotiates in good faith, it\u2019s possible to make changes predictably.<\/p>\n

However, Trump has, for many decades, believed in unpredictability. Making sudden shifts to put others in a negotiation off kilter. It\u2019s a style, but a limited one that depends on someone holding all the power.<\/p>\n

That isn\u2019t the case in geopolitics, even when one of the negotiators has immense power. How well has it worked with Iran?<\/p>\n

The sudden destruction of a 16-year plan means that for the next 10 years, everything is potentially up for negotiation every single year in a process that can take many months. It is like taking unpredictable tariff strategies and supercharging the effects they can have on the U.S.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s going to affect consumers, businesses, government, international relations, global trade. Everything. Potentially far worse than the uncertainty of tariffs in 2025. And there is now no easy or certain way of putting all the parts back together.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 06, 2025: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after signing executive orders in the Oval…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":907399,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,2147,79,2222,130,277,36780,67,132,68,96556],"class_list":["post-907398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-mexico","tag-trade","tag-trump","tag-uncertainty","tag-united-states","tag-unitedstates","tag-us","tag-usmca"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116850180138039425","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/907398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=907398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/907398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/907399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=907398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=907398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=907398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}