The government bases Social Security COLAs<\/a> on changes in annual third-quarter inflation data. But the third quarter of 2026 is just getting started, so we can only speculate based on recent inflation. <\/p>\n When TSCL made the 3.9% prediction, the war in Iran was still ongoing, and energy costs were skyrocketing. It wasn’t clear how long that would continue, which fueled speculation that the 2027 COLA could come in well above the 2.8% rate TSCL had predicted earlier in the year. <\/p>\n Now that the war in Iran is paused (or at least de-escalated), fuel prices across the nation — a key driver of the recent inflation — are beginning to drop. If this trend continues, inflation over the next couple of months may decrease. <\/p>\n This is good news for seniors trying to cover their expenses today, but it means the COLA might come in lower than previously thought. We’ve already seen 2027 COLA estimates slip from 3.9% in May to 3.8% in June. But there’s still a bit of a wait until we find out exactly what kind of benefit boost seniors will get next year. <\/p>\n When to expect the 2027 Social Security COLA announcement <\/p>\n The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, 2026, when the September 2026 inflation data, the last piece of information needed for the calculation, is released. <\/p>\n Once you have the percentage, you can get a rough idea of how it will affect your checks by adding the COLA to your existing benefits. You will also get a personalized COLA notice in early December giving your exact benefit amount for 2027, along with details of how much will come out of your checks for Medicare<\/a> Part B premiums if you’re enrolled in that program. <\/p>\n Use the last few months of 2026 to build your budget for next year so you know exactly what to expect when your January benefit arrives with the COLA included. And if you have any questions about your checks, contact the Social Security Administration. <\/p>\n The\u00a0$23,760\u00a0Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook <\/p>\n If you’re like most Americans, you’re a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known\u00a0“Social Security secrets”<\/strong><\/a> could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more<\/strong>… each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we’re all after. <\/p>\n Many Americans leave money on the table in retirement. Learn more about these retirement strategies and more, available when you join Stock Advisor. <\/p>\n View the “Social Security secrets” \u00bb<\/strong><\/a> <\/p>\n The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/a> Image source: Getty Images. Why the 2027 Social Security COLA will likely be less than 3.9% <\/p>\n