{"id":941872,"date":"2026-07-17T21:06:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T21:06:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/941872\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T21:06:31","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T21:06:31","slug":"san-andreas-fault-at-highest-earthquake-strain-in-1000-years-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/941872\/","title":{"rendered":"San Andreas fault at highest earthquake strain in 1,000 years, study finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It lurks ominously beneath California\u2019s many natural wonders, a reminder that nothing in this landscape is truly permanent.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been described as \u201cthe mother of all earthquake faults,\u201d the source of both our geological birth and, perhaps, our ultimate undoing.<\/p>\n<p>But the most unnerving thing about the San Andreas fault these days may be its silence. It\u2019s a mystery scientists are still trying to unlock.<\/p>\n<p>The San Andreas is central to any discussion of California. It\u2019s the massive 800-mile spine of the state, trundling up the Coachella Valley to the San Gabriel Mountains, and pushing along the edge of Silicon Valley to beyond the Golden Gate.<\/p>\n<p>There is no simple answer for why California\u2019s longest fault, responsible for some of America\u2019s most powerful earthquakes, has produced so few in the last century. <\/p>\n<p>But it is clear that the quiet period is only increasing strain on the San Andreas, as well as on the state\u2019s second-longest fault, the San Jacinto. <\/p>\n<p>A new study underscores the concern. Researchers estimated that key sections of the fault in Southern California are at their highest level of tectonic strain in the last 1,000 years.<\/p>\n<p>The San Andreas, in other words, is locked, loaded and inevitable. <\/p>\n<p>  A red-hot San\u00a0Andreas<\/p>\n<p>Tectonic stress on these sections of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults is high \u2014 shown in red \u2014 a product of no significant quakes on them for more than a century. At the Cajon Pass, sections of the faults are at their highest strain in 1,000 years, calculations\u00a0suggest.<\/p>\n<p class=\"legend-title\">Average tectonic stress, in megapascals<\/p>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" id=\"g-legend-desktop-img\" class=\"g-legend-desktop-img g-aiImg\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/legend-desktop.ee35cfc8.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" id=\"g-legend-mobile-img\" class=\"g-legend-mobile-img g-aiImg\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/legend-mobile.125a34df.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" id=\"g-2025-desktop-img\" class=\"g-desktop-img g-aiImg\" alt=\"Map of the Southern California region showing tectonic stress levels along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2025-desktop.2dd8f182.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>        N<\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" id=\"g-2025-mobile-img\" class=\"g-mobile-img g-aiImg\" alt=\"Map of the Southern California region showing tectonic stress levels along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2025-mobile.ecc89542.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>        N<\/p>\n<p class=\"source\">Liliane Burkhard \/ University of Bern \/ University of Hawai\u2019i at Manoa; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scec.org\/science\/community-fault-model\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Statewide California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"credit\">Sean Greene LOS ANGELES TIMES<\/p>\n<p>    Ticking tectonics<\/p>\n<p>There are generations of Californians who have never experienced the fury of the San Andreas. <\/p>\n<p>The fault was responsible for a megaquake that ripped through the then-sparsely populated state in 1857 \u2014 an event that, if repeated today, would reap mass destruction.<\/p>\n<p>In 1906, \u201ca crack in the edge of the world,\u201d as author Simon Winchester described it, flattened San Francisco.<\/p>\n<p>Modern Californians have been forced to make do with Hollywood\u2019s CGI versions of the fault, which cast it as one of our state\u2019s darkest villains. <\/p>\n<p>        Get earthquake-ready in six weeks     <\/p>\n<p data-element=\"module-description\" class=\"mb-4 mt-0 max-w-150 font-cms-font-service-text text-xs-2 leading-4.5 text-cms-color-description-text\">From building a kit to buying insurance, our Unshaken newsletter course will help you prepare.<\/p>\n<p data-element=\"module-disclaimer\" class=\"mb-3 mt-0 inline-block max-w-lg font-cms-font-service-text text-xs text-cms-color-disclaimer-text [&amp;_a]:text-cms-rich-text-link-color-text\"> By continuing, you agree to our <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/terms-of-service\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Terms of Service<\/a>, which include arbitration and a class action waiver. You agree that we and our third-party vendors may collect and use your information, including through cookies, pixels and similar technologies, for the purposes set forth in our <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/privacy-policy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Privacy Policy<\/a> such as personalizing your experience and ads. <\/p>\n<p>But sooner or later, scientists say, California\u2019s earthquake faults will rupture in a way not seen in the modern era. While California has seen sizable temblors since the great San Francisco quake of 1906, the state\u2019s faults are capable of producing intense shaking over a much larger area than seen during more modern events such as the Sylmar, Loma Prieta or Northridge quakes. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe keep accumulating that earthquake energy, and it has to be released. And the only way it gets released is through large earthquakes,\u201d said U.S. Geological Survey geologist Kate Scharer, one of the new study\u2019s co-authors. \u201cThe small ones don\u2019t really do it.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>            <img class=\"image\" alt=\"The California Aqueduct is seen over the San Andreas fault.\"   width=\"2000\" height=\"1334\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784322385_397_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>         <\/p>\n<p>A section of the California Aqueduct crisscrosses the San Andreas fault dozens of times.<\/p>\n<p>                   <video playsinline=\"playsinline\" loop=\"\" preload=\"none\" title=\"The San Andreas fault has gone ominously silent. The seismic strain worries scientists\" data-video-id=\"0000019f-4d8f-d76d-a3ff-7daf019d0000\">               <\/video>                 <img class=\"image\" alt=\"\"   width=\"473\" height=\"840\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784322386_824_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>             <\/p>\n<ul data-element=\"action-bar-menu\" class=\"flex gap-2 list-none  absolute w-full h-10 top-0\">\n<li data-element=\"action-bar-share\" class=\"flex  w-full h-10 top-0 lg:items-center lg:justify-center \">\n<p> Share via     Close extra sharing options  <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The latest study, <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2025JB033213\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">published last month<\/a> in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, set out to create a model that calculated the seismic strain on three key segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults where they intersect at the Cajon Pass in San Bernardino County. <\/p>\n<p>The model is based on a number of factors: the estimated timing of earthquakes on the faults over a record of the last 1,000 years; satellite observations of how fast tectonic plates are moving; and estimates of how rigid Earth\u2019s crust is, which determines how much stress can be accommodated and then released, Scharer said. <\/p>\n<p>The computer model \u201cfound that tectonic stress has now reached higher levels than at any point in that entire record. From the model, we see that the conditions that historically preceded large joint ruptures crossing both fault systems are now approaching,\u201d said Liliane Burkhard, the lead author of the study and a scientist at the University of Bern in Switzerland and the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology at the University of Hawaii. <\/p>\n<p>The last major temblor to strike urban Southern California, the magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake of 1994, resulted in severe damage and the deaths of about 60 people. But it was also mostly limited to a relatively small area of Los Angeles County. <\/p>\n<p>By comparison, a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas would simultaneously bring violent shaking to L.A., Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Imperial counties and could result in 1,800 deaths, according to a U.S. Geological Survey estimate published in 2008.<\/p>\n<p>The findings of the latest study don\u2019t change the overall expectation of a big earthquake hitting Southern California. But they underscore the persistent risk \u2014 as well as the possible scale of the disaster. <\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s a 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake striking the Los Angeles region by 2045, according to <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubs.usgs.gov\/fs\/2015\/3009\/pdf\/fs2015-3009.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">USGS estimates published in 2015<\/a>. There\u2019s about a 1 in 5 chance of such a quake striking on the San Andreas fault within L.A. County and the Inland Empire. <\/p>\n<p>Why the drought?<\/p>\n<p>The decades-long relative earthquake drought \u201cis an unusually long interseismic period, and stress has been accumulating continuously throughout,\u201d Burkhard said. <\/p>\n<p>The authors created a 28-second animation, showing how tectonic strain increased along the faults over the last 1,000 years. Big earthquakes then release that strain, before the cycle starts again. <\/p>\n<p>           <video playsinline=\"playsinline\" preload=\"none\" title=\"One thousand years of earthquakes around the Cajon Pass\" data-video-id=\"0000019e-dd14-dfe3-ab9e-ddbf4e7f0000\">                 <\/video>               <img class=\"image\" alt=\"\"   width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784322387_70_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>                  <\/p>\n<p class=\"video-enhancement-title\">This animation condenses 1,000 years of the Cajon Pass\u2019s earthquake history into 28 seconds. Tectonic stress, shown in shades of orange and red, builds up along three fault segments. Following an earthquake, that stress is released. (Liliane Burkhard \/ University of Bern \/ University of Hawai\u2019i at Manoa)<\/p>\n<p>The study calculated that the San Andreas fault just northwest of the Cajon Pass and the San Jacinto fault just southeast of the pass are at their highest tectonic strain since the year 1100. <\/p>\n<p>The pass,  roughly 50 miles northeast of downtown Los Angeles, marks the dividing line between the San Gabriel Mountains to the west and the San Bernardino Mountains to the east.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, the study\u2019s authors calculated that the current tectonic stress was 2.8 megapascals on the San Andreas northwest of the pass, surpassing the previous highs of 2.7 just before big quakes in 1469 and 1691. <\/p>\n<p>For the San Jacinto, the authors calculated a current seismic stress of 3.6 megapascals, surpassing the previous high of 2.9 before an earthquake in the year 1249. <\/p>\n<p>The study noted that it has been an unusually long time since a megaquakes has hit Southern California. The San Andreas fault northwest of the Cajon Pass usually has big quakes every 100 to 150 years, Scharer said, though intervals of about 200 years are not unheard of. <\/p>\n<p>On the San Andreas southeast of the pass, big quakes usually happen every 200 to 250 years. But the most recent quake on the San Andreas along the Salton Sea, close to the Mexican border, was about 300 years ago. <\/p>\n<p>There are some limitations to the study\u2019s model, scientists acknowledge. For instance, the model presumes that when large earthquakes hit, all the tectonic stress that had been accumulated in the fault gets released, \u201cso you start at a ground state of zero and then you accumulate back up until you have that next big event,\u201d Scharer said. <\/p>\n<p>But whether all that stress actually gets released during a big quake is not definitively known. <\/p>\n<p>            <img class=\"image\" alt=\"The Mormon Rocks in Phelan.\"   width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784322388_644_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>         <\/p>\n<p>The Mormon Rocks in Phelan, Calif.<\/p>\n<p>        Tectonic risks<\/p>\n<p>Whenever it strikes, a supersized earthquake on the southern San Andreas would be like no earthquake seen in living memory in California. <\/p>\n<p>The 1857 quake, estimated to be a magnitude 7.9, produced 63 times more shaking energy than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and across a much larger swath of the state. <\/p>\n<p>In <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov\/earthquakes\/eventpage\/ci3144585\/executive\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">1994<\/a>, \u201cviolent shaking,\u201d or Level 9 on the <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/programs\/earthquake-hazards\/modified-mercalli-intensity-scale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale<\/a>, causing great damage in substantial buildings, affected only part of the San Fernando Valley. <\/p>\n<p>But a magnitude 7.8 San Andreas quake hypothesized by the USGS in its 2008 ShakeOut scenario would cause that <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/media\/images\/map-shakeout-scenario-shaking-southern-california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">kind of shaking<\/a> across Southern California.  <\/p>\n<p>In 1994, emergency responders from across Southern California were able to focus the bulk of their efforts on especially hard-hit areas. That wouldn\u2019t be possible in a regionwide disaster. <\/p>\n<p>It might be tempting for Californians to tune out talk of the \u201cBig One\u201d after hearing about it for most of their lives. But generational catastrophes do strike \u2014 be they an earthquake in San Francisco in 1906, a hurricane in New Orleans in 2005 or tsunamis in the Indian Ocean in 2004 or Japan in 2011. <\/p>\n<p>Tectonic rewards<\/p>\n<p>Earthquakes are part of the bargain of living in California, a product of the same forces that allow people to ski and surf on the same day. The same tectonics that drive earthquakes act as the state\u2019s landscape artists, said Julian Lozos, associate professor of geological sciences at Cal State Northridge. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cBecause we are on the edge of the continent, we\u2019re on a plate boundary, and have been a plate boundary for a couple hundred million years. There\u2019s constantly been stuff crashing into North America, and getting stuck to it, and getting uplifted, and erupted through, and slid around,\u201d Lozos said. <\/p>\n<p>The Sierra Nevada, California\u2019s mightiest mountain range, \u201care the guts of the volcanoes that used to be there when there was a subduction zone &#8230; and then when those volcanoes stopped erupting, the guts of them lifted up through the crust,\u201d Lozos said. <\/p>\n<p>            <img class=\"image\" alt=\"A road passes next to land over the San Andreas fault.\"   width=\"2000\" height=\"1333\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784322390_897_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>         <\/p>\n<p>Big Pines Highway rises out of a valley to ride a ridge created by the tectonic forces of the San Andreas fault,  two miles southeast of the unincorporated Mojave Desert community of Valyermo, home to about 450 residents.<\/p>\n<p>The same forces that produce earthquakes are also what led gold to form in the Sierra foothills, inciting the state\u2019s famous rush. <\/p>\n<p>Tectonic movement also created today\u2019s Central Valley, a highly productive agricultural area that was once part of the ocean, then an inland sea, and then a freshwater lake, Lozos said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEverything about what we see here is stuff that formed because of that plate boundary then, and it\u2019s getting moved around by the plate boundary now,\u201d Lozos said. \u201cAnd so if we didn\u2019t have anything like that, we would be Nebraska.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>But the risks, like the rewards, are significant. The San Andreas runs right through cities in the Inland Empire. The Los Angeles Basin is also at risk. <\/p>\n<p>If an earthquake on the San Andreas comes from the south and heads north, it would shuttle all that shaking energy \u201cright into downtown,\u201d Lozos said, causing shaking that could last two to three minutes. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cGeologically, L.A. is a bowl of Jell-O. It is a hard rock bowl full of really soft, squishy stuff that shakes very easily,\u201d Lozos said. <\/p>\n<p>            <img class=\"image\" alt=\"A woman talks to a customer at the Wrightwood Inn.\"   width=\"2000\" height=\"1335\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784322391_502_.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>         <\/p>\n<p>It is business as usual at the Wrightwood Inn on a recent Tuesday night. According to a recent study, seismic pressure has been gradually building in the area for more than a century.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not certain why it\u2019s been so quiet between earthquakes,  Scharer said. Another <a class=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2023-06-09\/could-drying-salton-sea-explain-why-l-a-hasnt-had-big-san-andreas-earthquake\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">study<\/a>, published in 2023, suggested the lack of sudden, major floodwaters funneling into Lake Cahuilla, the larger historical predecessor to the Salton Sea, may have something to do with it.<\/p>\n<p>Scharer said the study\u2019s results are a good reminder to prepare for the next big earthquake. <\/p>\n<p>To be sure, the computer model\u2019s results are not a prediction, and all models have their limitations and uncertainties. Still, its suggestion that the fault systems are \u201cmore loaded than at any point in the 1,000-year record,\u201d Burkhard said, \u201cis a finding worth taking seriously.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the end, the most important message is a simple one: Let\u2019s make sure we are prepared,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It lurks ominously beneath California\u2019s many natural wonders, a reminder that nothing in this landscape is truly permanent.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":941873,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5123],"tags":[1582,355055,276,44517,379322,379323,2961,224,2444,5337,68572,18417,68571,82764,379324,2549,290,7572,1628],"class_list":["post-941872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-ca","tag-cajon-pass","tag-california","tag-earthquake","tag-earthquake-fault","tag-julian-lozos","tag-la","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-losangeles","tag-magnitude","tag-model","tag-quake","tag-san-andreas-fault","tag-scharer","tag-southern-california","tag-state","tag-study","tag-year"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/116937359233836215","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/941872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=941872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/941872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/941873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=941872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=941872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=941872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}